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jp

JPMorgan warns: Stablecoins may become tools for regulatory arbitrage and need to be included in a bank-level regulatory framework

JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum stated during the earnings call that if regulatory rules are not aligned with traditional bank deposits, stablecoins may evolve into a "regulatory arbitrage" tool. He pointed out that some stablecoin models already exhibit deposit-like characteristics, such as providing incentives similar to yields, but are not subject to banking regulatory requirements like capital, liquidity, and consumer protection, which could create an unfair competitive environment. "If the same products are not regulated equally, it will open up arbitrage opportunities," Barnum said.Currently, U.S. legislation is pushing for a cryptocurrency regulatory framework, including the Clarity Act, to clarify the regulatory division of labor between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and to regulate the development of the stablecoin market. Additionally, whether to allow stablecoins to distribute reserve earnings to users has become a point of contention. Cryptocurrency companies, including Coinbase, support "interest-bearing stablecoins," while banks believe this would bring them closer to deposit products but lack corresponding regulatory constraints. JPMorgan expressed support for regulatory clarity but emphasized that "regulatory consistency" takes precedence over speed. At the same time, the bank is advancing product layouts, including JPM Coin and tokenized deposits, through its blockchain division Kinexys to modernize the payment system.

JPMorgan: Strategy is the main factor for Bitcoin inflows

According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan released a report stating that the total inflow of digital assets in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately $11 billion, annualized at about $44 billion, which is about one-third of the same period in 2025.Analysts Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others pointed out that the inflow of funds from retail and institutional investors is low or even negative, with the inflow in the first quarter mainly coming from Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and concentrated crypto venture capital financing.The overall cryptocurrency market declined in the first quarter, with the total market capitalization dropping by about 20%, Bitcoin falling by about 23%, and ETH declining by over 30%. The sell-off was driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. Prices stabilized towards the end of the quarter, with Bitcoin consolidating around $70,000.The report noted that CME futures positions for Bitcoin and ETH weakened compared to 2024 and 2025, with net outflows for spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs occurring in the first quarter, mainly concentrated in January, while inflows for Bitcoin ETFs rebounded in March.Strategy remains the main buyer, primarily providing funding for Bitcoin purchases through equity issuance, while other corporate holders are relatively conservative, with some selling Bitcoin for buybacks. Bitcoin miners were net sellers in this quarter. The annualized pace of crypto venture capital funding is higher than in the previous two years, but it is concentrated in a few large transactions, with funds continuing to flow into infrastructure, stablecoins, payments, and tokenization.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin outperforms gold and silver, with capital flows and momentum showing resilience

JPMorgan stated that under the backdrop of ETF fund outflows, deteriorating liquidity, and institutional deleveraging, gold and silver are under pressure, while Bitcoin shows greater resilience and relatively stable capital inflows.Gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the three weeks leading up to March, and there was also a significant withdrawal of funds related to silver. Coupled with rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar, this has pushed precious metal prices lower. Meanwhile, Bitcoin funds continue to maintain net inflows, and market momentum is gradually improving. In terms of price performance, Bitcoin initially fell to the $60,000 range alongside risk assets at the onset of geopolitical conflicts but quickly stabilized thereafter, currently oscillating between $68,000 and $70,000, indicating that long-term capital is re-entering the market to support prices after the panic. Additionally, position and momentum data have also diverged, with institutional positions in gold and silver futures significantly declining since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin futures positions have remained stable overall. Trend-following funds have shifted from "overbought" in precious metals to below neutral levels, exacerbating their downward pressure; Bitcoin, on the other hand, has rebounded from the oversold range, with selling pressure easing. Liquidity indicators show that the breadth of the gold market has fallen below that of Bitcoin, and silver liquidity has further weakened. JPMorgan believes that this change highlights Bitcoin's gradually emerging performance characteristics that differ from traditional safe-haven assets in the current macro and geopolitical environment.
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