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JPMorgan Chase: The technology sector still has a surplus of 400 billion dollars this year

J.P. Morgan's latest report states that publicly listed technology companies worldwide are expected to generate approximately $2.2 trillion in operating cash flow this year, with capital expenditures and R&D expenditures totaling about $1.8 trillion. After deductions, there remains a surplus of about $400 billion, sufficient to support current AI infrastructure investments without relying on external financing.In response to market concerns regarding the sustainability of financing models for new cloud vendors, J.P. Morgan believes that their scale is still relatively limited compared to the entire technology sector. Even if financing comes under pressure, it is unlikely to shake the overall AI investment cycle. The report estimates that new cloud vendors will have operating cash flow of about $30 billion this year, with capital expenditures and R&D expenditures around $80 billion. If there is a funding gap, more financially robust hyperscale cloud service providers can still take on the related demand.J.P. Morgan also pointed out that part of the current financing demand in the technology sector stems from large-scale stock buybacks. Companies can release funds by reducing buybacks to maintain AI investments. The overall stock position in the market has retreated from the mid-September peak, and trend-following investors' long positions in semiconductors have also been largely digested. The bank believes that the short-term downward space in the market is gradually narrowing.

JPMorgan Chase: For the first time, includes Bitcoin in long-term return forecasts, with potential returns surpassing gold and bonds

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has first included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market expectations, forecasting an annualized return of about 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, which is expected to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, this prediction also assumes that Bitcoin's annualized volatility could reach as high as 55%, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.J.P. Morgan believes that the gradual improvement of the regulatory framework, along with the continuous enhancement of market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms, may further promote Bitcoin's recognition in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovations in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, as well as a global capital expenditure growth of approximately $15 trillion, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced investment portfolios; therefore, the institution has not yet included it in its main investment portfolio model. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline in the future and its correlation with other assets stabilizes, its portfolio allocation value is expected to increase.

JPMorgan Chase CEO: The U.S. economy is still in a "good time," but is prepared for a 40% drop in the stock market

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated in an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal that the current state of the U.S. economy is strong, with significant growth in corporate profits, a low unemployment rate, and overall low leverage for businesses and consumers. He described this as a good time. Dimon also pointed out that several potential risks are accumulating beneath the surface, including persistent inflation that has lasted for five years, large fiscal deficits, and geopolitical uncertainties such as overseas wars.He emphasized that predicting the specific timing and triggers of an economic downturn is extremely difficult, as the eventual recession is often caused by a combination of factors that cannot be accurately assessed at present. When discussing how banks should respond, Dimon stated that JPMorgan Chase conducts extremely in-depth analyses of various risks to ensure that the bank can withstand shocks whether interest rates rise or fall, and whether inflation or stagflation occurs, while continuing to serve clients during difficult times. He mentioned that the bank is prepared for extreme scenarios such as a 40% drop in the stock market and a two to three times widening of bond credit spreads, rather than trying to guess when these scenarios will happen. The core principle is to be well-prepared to continuously support businesses and communities in various environments.

first_img SBI and Startale join Open Standard to explore interoperability between JPYSC and OUSD

On October 16, SBI Holdings and Startale Group announced their participation in Open Standard to explore the interoperability of the dollar-pegged stablecoin OUSD and the yen-denominated trust-based stablecoin JPYSC. The article states that Open Standard will launch in June 2026, and the alliance already includes over 140 global companies, including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, and Coinbase, with OUSD already publicly launched on-chain. The announcement clarified that this only involves exploring a pilot project and does not represent the launch of new commercial services or the initiation of production environment settlements or trading activities.Yoshitaka Kitao, Representative Director, Chairman, President, and CEO of SBI Holdings, stated that cross-border transactions will become more common, and seamless conversion between yen and dollar stablecoins is crucial. Joining Open Standard and exploring related proof of concepts is an important step. He also mentioned that the SBI Group has been the first in Japan to offer dollar stablecoins USDC and RLUSD. Startale Group CEO Sota Watanabe stated that joining Open Standard reflects both parties' belief that the future of finance is on-chain, borderless, and interoperable, and that the pilot interoperability of JPYSC and OUSD is of significant importance.JPYSC is issued by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank and is positioned as an on-chain yen settlement infrastructure compliant with Japan's Payment Services Act and trust law framework. In July 2026, SBI Global Asset Management, DigiFT, and Startale announced a proof of concept for tokenized securities settlement and distribution payments, considering the future use of JPYSC. Open Standard claims it was established in 2026, with founding partners including Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and Visa, and over 200 institutions have signed up to add OUSD to the platform.

JPMorgan warned that AI stocks are hard to replicate the rebound in July, and leverage risks are rising

J.P. Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that the AI stock sell-off in October may be difficult to replicate the rapid rebound seen in July. Compared to before, the current market's willingness to buy on dips has weakened, short positions are insufficient to provide potential short-covering buying, corporate buyback funds are also decreasing, and at the same time, leveraged exposure in ETFs is being rebuilt, which may further amplify market volatility. J.P. Morgan believes that, based on investor positioning and capital flows, AI infrastructure stocks do not yet appear to be in an oversold state.This round of sell-off has spread from South Korean memory chip stocks to the U.S. semiconductor sector. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have both seen their stock prices drop by nearly one-third over the past month, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 10% over the last five trading days. Additionally, the combined $40 billion stock buyback plan previously announced by the two companies was completed ahead of schedule in mid-October, which may have caused the market to lose some of the buying support brought by corporate buybacks.Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that if the U.S. halts data center construction, the economy could fall into recession. He stated that a significant portion of U.S. economic growth is related to capital expenditures in AI infrastructure. As market concerns deepen regarding the return on AI investments and corporate profitability, price adjustments in the AI supply chain could also impact data center construction, energy infrastructure, and related employment sectors.

first_img JPMorgan Chase: Approximately $50 billion flowed into crypto assets this year, with improved momentum in Q4

In a report released on Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts estimated that approximately $50 billion has flowed into digital assets this year, with an annualized rate of about $66 billion, up from the annualized level of $52 billion in May, but still about half of last year's pace. The report is led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Analysts estimated the inflow by aggregating data from cryptocurrency fund flows, CME futures implied flows, cryptocurrency venture capital fundraising, and purchases by listed mining companies and corporate treasuries, this time including private company treasuries, private mining companies, and government-related entities in the statistics.Analysts pointed out that the inflow in the first half of the year mainly came from Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and cryptocurrency venture capital financing, while ETF fund flows were a drag at that time, with significant outflows in May and June; since August, ETF fund flows have improved, turning positive for the year, but if calculated from the market correction starting October 10, 2025, the cumulative ETF fund flow is still negative. Institutional positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures at CME have increased over the past two months, with Bitcoin positions surpassing previous peaks and Ethereum positions nearing the October 2025 high. Offshore exchange perpetual contract leverage has fallen from the peak after the correction but remains above historical averages, and trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, have begun to rebuild long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Analysts also stated that Bitcoin mining companies have been net sellers this year, with net sales of about $1.8 billion, mainly from listed mining companies, which have shifted from hoarding coins to selling newly mined tokens, partially reducing their existing holdings to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure expenditures.
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