kalshi

Chairman James Comer of the House Oversight Committee, a Republican, has called for new restrictions on government officials' participation in prediction markets, including the possibility of a complete ban. The committee released the conclusions of an investigation that began in May of this year on Friday, which examined the risks of government officials, military personnel, and those with security clearances using insider information to place bets in prediction markets. Comer stated that the committee reviewed 1,700 pages of documents and heard five bipartisan staff briefings provided by prediction market companies.Comer stated that Congress must consider further reforms to prevent public corruption and restore the American people's trust in the government. The committee believes that relevant reforms should legislate restrictions on the types of bets federal employees, lawmakers, and congressional staff can participate in within prediction markets, or directly implement a complete ban. The committee's memorandum noted that whether a complete ban on prediction market trading is imposed or only restrictions on certain contracts related to government, applying such restrictions to officials across all branches of government would reinforce the ethical expectation that government personnel should not use non-public information obtained through their positions for personal financial gain.This concern has intensified over the past year, stemming from an active-duty U.S. Army soldier using confidential information to bet on Polymarket before the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, after which government personnel, including a former White House teleprompter operator, were also found to have profited from insider information. The committee also suggested that Congress push for prediction market companies to share necessary information with federal agencies to enforce restrictions. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have stated that they have taken measures to strengthen controls, and in April of this year, the Senate passed a resolution banning lawmakers from trading in prediction markets.

According to The Block, the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission have filed a lawsuit against Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin, concerning his state-level enforcement action against the prediction market platform Kalshi. The lawsuit was submitted on Thursday, seeking to prevent future state-level actions against prediction markets regulated by the CFTC.

According to Bloomberg, informed sources revealed that the prediction market platform Kalshi is negotiating a new round of financing with investors, with a valuation of approximately 65 billion dollars. A few weeks ago, Kalshi just completed a new round of financing with a valuation of 40 billion dollars.

The prediction market platform Kalshi has launched a research grant program with a total amount of $1 million, intending to fund up to 50 independent studies that analyze the 2026 U.S. midterm elections using prediction market data. According to the official rules, eligible users can submit applications before 12:59 PM Beijing time on November 19.

According to POLITICO, sources have revealed that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that the prediction market platform Kalshi may soon face charges. The CFTC is investigating whether Kalshi failed to follow the notification procedures required by regulators for dozens of new contracts that are set to be launched, and this investigation has been ongoing for several months.A spokesperson for Kalshi responded that the CFTC's warning pertains to "procedural errors in the submission process of a few contracts," many of which have not yet gone live, and the company is addressing the related issues. Additionally, the CFTC is also investigating Polymarket.

The predicted market report for Q3 2026 shows that the nominal trading volume in the predicted market is expected to reach $194.1 billion, a 75% increase from Q2. Regulated exchanges in the United States account for 89% of the nominal trading volume, up from 69% in Q2; cross-market trading accounts for 44% of the nominal trading volume in the U.S., surpassing the 39% of individual sports events.American Spend data shows that the 11 states in the U.S. where sports betting has not yet been legalized hold about one-third of the adult population in the U.S., and these states contributed 55% of Kalshi's bank card deposits in September 2026. Users aged 18 to 24 account for 30% of Kalshi's bank card deposits. Kalshi and Polymarket US together account for 11% of the relevant betting application bank card deposits, up from 3% in Q1. Blask data shows that Kalshi's share of search demand in the U.S. predicted market has increased from 23% to 34%.

Coinbase legal advisor Molly Abraham stated that six institutions, including Coinbase, prediction market platform Kalshi, Kraken's parent company Payward, DRW Holdings, Jump Trading, and Paradigm, have applied to the U.S. court to submit amicus curiae briefs in support of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding its regulatory authority over individual perpetual contracts.The related institutions argue that, according to the Commodity Exchange Act and the regulatory framework for securities futures established by the U.S. Congress in 2000, such products should be classified as securities futures rather than securities swaps. The aforementioned institutions also believe that preventing innovative products from being compliant and listed in the U.S. will only drive trading activities offshore.

According to Politico, platforms including the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket may face stricter regulations after the Democrats won the midterm elections.Politico stated that during Trump's term, regulators had a relatively lenient attitude towards prediction markets, which facilitated their rapid expansion in areas such as politics, sports, and stocks. Several Democratic lawmakers, including Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, criticized such markets for allowing betting on sensitive events like elections, wars, and assassinations, and called for stronger legislative constraints.

According to a report by The New York Times, researchers at Vanderbilt University found that a Polymarket user bet nearly $200,000 on October 31, believing that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would win re-election. About an hour later, a poll released jointly by The New York Times and Siena College showed Ricketts in the lead. The report stated that it is currently unclear whether the user had insider information, but their profit exceeded $77,000.The report also mentioned that the user made similar large bets in other markets, including Kalshi. Brett Goldstein from Vanderbilt University's National Security Research Institute stated that this series of events is difficult to consider as random occurrences and requires further investigation. Polymarket stated that it has identified related transactions and is investigating, while Kalshi declined to comment.In April of this year, Cointelegraph reported that a U.S. Army soldier was sued for profiting over $400,000 from bets in a prediction market, allegedly using non-public information related to U.S. actions against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. Department of Justice stated that Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve," which captured Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January of this year. He is accused of using that information to buy "yes" shares of related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro will resign before January 31."

The prediction market platform Kalshi officially disclosed that the total trading volume related to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections exceeded $2.5 billion, nearly double the $1.3 billion for the entire 2024 election cycle. On the day before and after the election, Kalshi's total nominal trading volume reached $4.15 billion (including non-election contracts). Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang revealed that on November 3, the trading volume for Kalshi's election contracts was $729 million, higher than the $244 million on the day of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The single market for "Who Will Control the U.S. House of Representatives" had a cumulative trading volume exceeding $400 million.Before the election, institutions such as The Washington Post reported that the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket was close to $1.9 billion, with Kalshi accounting for about $1.3 billion and Polymarket about $600 million. Polymarket's onshore and offshore combined trading volume was approximately $600 million to $700 million. Kalshi stated that among the 487 races where results were announced before 6:26 AM EST on November 4, the most popular candidates won 479 races, with an accuracy rate of about 98%. Their research team noted that the overall race accuracy rate increased from 93.8% three months ago to 98.2% by the end of voting.Polymarket disclosed that the most popular candidates the day before the election won 419 out of 426 settled races, with an accuracy rate of 98.4%, and there were 78 races pending settlement; the accuracy rates for settled Senate, gubernatorial, and House races were approximately 97%, 97.1%, and 98.6%, respectively. Both platforms set the probability of the Democratic Party winning the House at about 94% and the Senate at about 75% before the votes were counted, and the final outcomes for both chambers were consistent with the results. Third parties pointed out that the market implied about 192 Republican House seats at the time of counting, which NBC later estimated to be 176 seats. Kalshi stated that the key Senate race pushed the winning side to over 99% on average about 115 minutes earlier than CNN's official announcement.

According to The Defiant, U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in Northern California approved the preliminary injunction request from the California tribe on November 4, prohibiting the event contract platform Kalshi Inc. and KalshiEX from offering sports event contracts on the Indian land of the plaintiff tribe.The injunction covers sports contracts for baseball, tennis, soccer, basketball, golf, esports, racing, boxing, and UFC, but is limited to the land of the plaintiff tribe and does not apply to the entire state of California. Previously, Kalshi stated that it had proactively blocked trading in the relevant areas, but the tribe questioned its effectiveness. According to the injunction, the tribe must provide boundary maps by November 13, and Kalshi must report compliance steps within 21 days.

Wall Street market maker and quantitative trading giant Hudson River Trading (HRT) has begun trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, becoming one of the institutional trading firms to enter the prediction market after Jump Trading and Susquehanna International Group.Insiders revealed that HRT started trading on Kalshi about a month ago, with the relevant business managed by its futures team, primarily participating in the platform's "Up-Down Markets," which are contracts that settle based on the price increase or decrease of an asset over a short period. Currently, it has not ventured into sports and other non-financial event contracts. Additionally, HRT is also one of the participants in Kalshi's latest round of $1 billion financing, which values Kalshi at $40 billion.

According to BeInCrypto, Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, stated in an interview with CNBC that he supports the establishment of strict rules to prohibit members of Congress, government officials, and others from trading on prediction markets that they can influence.Mansour mentioned that Kalshi has been managing insider trading since its establishment in 2018. His remarks come as U.S. lawmakers discuss restrictions on prediction markets, with Democratic lawmakers Jeff Merkley and Jamie Raskin previously proposing legislation to ban event contracts involving elections, sports, military actions, and most government activities.

The co-founder and CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, tweeted that in yesterday's U.S. elections, the popular candidates in the prediction market won 479 out of the first 487 elections, accounting for 98%.He stated that the elite in Washington, D.C. have often underestimated the market, believing that "these people" do not understand politics, while the general public accurately expressed their judgments through the prediction market. The prediction market allows local knowledge scattered across different places to be aggregated, enabling voices to be heard without titles or large fan bases, changing the structure of information power.

The state of Arkansas in the United States has filed a lawsuit against the prediction market platform Kalshi, demanding that it cease the alleged illegal gambling activities. The state seeks compensation, recovery of unpaid taxes, and civil penalties in the lawsuit.Meanwhile, Kalshi continues to advance its federal appeal regarding the enforcement issues of gambling laws in various states.

According to the ruling of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, the court denied the request for an injunction by Coinbase Financial Markets and Kalshi during the appeal period. The related cases involve the enforcement of prediction markets in Connecticut and New York.The court is simultaneously hearing three appeals, which involve the case against Coinbase in Connecticut, as well as the cases against Kalshi in Connecticut and New York. The judges stated that the applicants failed to demonstrate the necessity of issuing an injunction during the appeal period; the ruling did not make a decision on the substantive issues of the appeal and did not require the platforms to cease trading or close existing positions.

According to The Defiant, a group supported by Cboe has filed a lawsuit regarding the approval of individual stock perpetual contracts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is seeking emergency relief to prevent the relevant contracts from being listed as securities futures.The lawsuit names Coinbase, Kalshi, and Bitnomial as defendants. Kalshi is a prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC, while Bitnomial operates a cryptocurrency derivatives trading business. The plaintiffs hope to intervene with emergency relief before the relevant contracts are officially listed.

Gate Ventures Weekly Report statistics show that 13 financing deals were disclosed last week, with a total disclosed amount of approximately 1.375 billion USD, among which Kalshi raised 1 billion USD.

The prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are optimistic about the Democratic Party controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Polymarket gives a 78% probability, with related market trading volume exceeding $58 million; Kalshi gives a 74% probability, with related contract trading volume exceeding $100 million.The individual Senate district markets on both platforms also favor Democratic candidates: James Talarico has a winning probability of 74% to 76% in Texas, Troy Jackson has 73% in Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed has 78% in Michigan. Traditional polls also indicate that the Democratic Party may experience a "blue wave."Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that this election is the first prediction market election, with related betting transactions exceeding $1.4 billion. However, the platform previously failed to predict Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the runoff, and its impact on voter behavior and electoral credibility is also under scrutiny.