kalshi

The Washington State Court has ordered the prediction market platform Kalshi to cease offering prediction services related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, and science, due to its violation of the state's gambling laws.The court also requires Kalshi to implement geofencing technology by September 2 to prevent users in Washington State from accessing the relevant services.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires the prediction market platform Kalshi to continue operating its exchange, executing in accordance with normal business practices and the core principles of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC previously determined that New York's attempt to prevent the platform's operation constitutes a market emergency.The CFTC stated that forcibly liquidating a Bitcoin price position that extends until the end of 2026 could trigger traders to simultaneously unwind Bitcoin and other asset positions, exposing arbitrageurs holding opposite positions to one-sided risk. The order also enumerates contracts such as federal funds rates, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of economic recessions. A ruling signed by Judge Vernon D. Oliver of the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut concluded that Kalshi's sports contracts do not constitute swaps; even if they were swaps, federal law would not take precedence over Connecticut's gambling regulations.

According to ChianCatcher news, reported by The Information journalist Yueqi Yang, the annual revenue of the prediction market platform Kalshi has exceeded $4 billion, doubling from two months ago, and is currently seeking to raise a new round of financing at a valuation of $40 billion, a significant increase of 82% from its valuation of $22 billion during the Series F financing in May.In addition, the company has recently invested heavily in marketing, with reports indicating that Kalshi's operating expenses in June reached $300 million, mainly related to marketing promotions.

According to Decrypt, the prediction market platform Kalshi announced a partnership with DoubleZero to provide real-time market data subscription services to trading institutions through DoubleZero Edge.The initial data covers Kalshi sports event contracts and cryptocurrency perpetual futures, including Level 1 (best quotes and transaction records) and Level 2 (multiple buy and sell orders) data, which can be directly used for pricing, hedging, and automated trading strategies. DoubleZero uses a multicast system to synchronize and push machine-readable data to all connected parties, significantly lowering the access threshold.

According to Fortune, the Trump family is accelerating its entry into the prediction market space, with the Trump Media Technology Group developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, allowing users to trade prediction contracts related to significant events. The company has also launched the Truth API, providing Wall Street with quick data access to Truth Social content. Additionally, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested in competitor Polymarket and joined the advisory board of Polymarket. This means the Trump family is simultaneously associated with the two major prediction market platforms, while the Trump Media Group is building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family is trading on government insider information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing external attention. Federal agencies are still investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade in related markets on Kalshi. The team of Donald Trump Jr. and the Trump Media Technology Group have yet to formally respond to requests for comments regarding insider trading related to the prediction market.

The prediction market platform Kalshi announced the launch of the AI tool Blanket, aimed at helping small businesses hedge operational risks related to weather, energy prices, tariffs, elections, and more using event contracts.Blanket was developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky, based on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated prediction market operations, but it is not an internal product of Kalshi. The tool does not directly execute trades or handle funds, but instead analyzes the risks faced by businesses through AI and recommends Kalshi event contracts that can be used for hedging.

U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff in New York has denied the emergency temporary restraining order application filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which aimed to stop the state of New York from advancing its enforcement case against the prediction platform Kalshi. The judge found that the CFTC failed to demonstrate a likelihood of success on the merits of its case and did not prove the existence of irreparable harm. However, the denial was made "without prejudice," allowing the CFTC to refile the relevant motion by August 7.New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Kalshi last Friday, accusing it of operating an illegal unlicensed prediction business by offering contracts on events such as sports and elections. The state of New York had issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi as early as October 2025. The core dispute in this case revolves around whether federal commodity law takes precedence over state law—state authorities believe that event contracts are predictions subject to state law, while the CFTC and Kalshi argue that they are derivatives under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC.

Former U.S. Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the order, Santos must return $17,569.98, pay a civil penalty of $17,500, and is prohibited from trading on any CFTC-registered entity for three years.The CFTC found that Santos made misleading public statements and significant omissions when trading event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi related to whether he would attend President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Santos did not admit to the factual findings or conclusions in the order. Trading records show that Santos opened an account on February 11 and only traded that contract, first buying the Yes contract and profiting $3,448.43, then continuing to publicly state he would attend after flights and trains were canceled, and buying the No contract, ultimately profiting $14,390.57 from that position. Kalshi stated it had detected the related activities, froze the account, and provided evidence to the CFTC.

According to data from The Block, the combined monthly trading volume of the three prediction market platforms Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi reached $50.6 billion in July, setting a new historical high. Among them, the trading volume of Polymarket US increased by 54% month-on-month to $5 billion, while Polymarket decreased by 26% month-on-month to $7.9 billion.

According to The Block, the New York State Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business through its prediction market platform and seeking at least $36 billion in damages.

The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin dismissed the CFTC's request for a preliminary injunction to prohibit Wisconsin from enforcing sports-related event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. The court found that the CFTC failed to demonstrate a likelihood of success on its claim—that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) defines "swaps" to include sports event contracts—and that gambling regulation falls within the traditional police powers of the states, with federal law not clearly indicating an intent to preempt state law.Additionally, the court also denied the intervention requests from Kalshi, Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), and the American Gaming Association (AGA). The substantive litigation between the CFTC and the state of Wisconsin will continue to proceed.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota ruled that the state law classifying the operation of prediction markets as a criminal offense likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), suspending the enforcement of the state law.The judge found that prediction market contracts structurally fall under the category of "swap" products regulated by the CFTC, and that federal law takes precedence over state law, with the three plaintiffs "likely to prevail in a formal trial." Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket. This preliminary injunction will remain in effect until a final judgment is made in the case.

According to Jinshi reports, the prediction market platform Kalshi has applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual futures linked to gold.

According to data from The Block, in the days leading up to the World Cup final, the total open interest (OI) of Kalshi and Polymarket combined has decreased by 20% from a peak of about $2 billion in early July. When smoothed weekly, the total OI rose from about $1.2 billion at the end of May to nearly $1.8 billion in the week of July 5, before falling back to about $1.5 billion in the week of July 19.The decline in trading volume was even more severe: Kalshi's sports trading volume dropped from a peak of about $9 billion in the week of July 5 to about $4 billion (a decrease of about 55%), while Polymarket fell from about $2.3 billion to $740 million (a decrease of nearly 70%). During the event, sports-related trading accounted for about 80% of the total trading volume on both platforms. On July 19, Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 to win the World Cup.According to statistics from DeFiOasis, approximately 194,000 addresses participated in Polymarket's World Cup champion market trading, of which about two-thirds incurred losses, with 54 addresses making over $100,000 (including 5 over $1 million), and 43 addresses losing over $100,000. It is expected that the activity in the prediction market will remain low until the next major catalytic event (the U.S. midterm elections in the fall).

On July 20, the King County Superior Court in Washington State approved the preliminary injunction motion against KalshiEX, LLC (Kalshi), ruling that Kalshi's activities constitute illegal actions in violation of Washington State's gambling laws, and determined that the federal Commodity Exchange Act does not take precedence over state gambling laws.This ruling is an important precedent in the jurisdictional dispute between state regulatory agencies and federal regulatory prediction market platforms, following accusations from the CFTC chairman of illegal enforcement actions by states against federally regulated exchanges. The court made the ruling after reviewing multiple materials, including the oral arguments from July 10. The case number is 26-2-10264-3 SEA.

According to Bloomberg, as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi expand, the issue of betting using non-public information or informational advantages is receiving more scrutiny. Bloomberg Businessweek analyzed approximately 34,000 potential insider trading cases flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; these related trades exhibited characteristics such as newly created accounts, low probability entries, large bets, or high trading concentration, but it cannot be determined that traders violated rules based on this.Data shows that from January 1 to June 30 of this year, the amount of suspicious trades flagged on Polymarket was approximately $200 million, with geopolitical and war-related markets driving a significant increase in abnormal trading volume. The profits from potential insider trading are highly concentrated, with the top 1% of accounts in profit wallets earning more than half of the gains, and 57% of related wallets created less than 24 hours before the trades. Some traders are reducing the likelihood of being discovered by using multiple associated wallets and splitting orders. For example, 38 associated addresses placed bets in 90 geopolitical markets related to Iran and Venezuela, achieving a win rate of 98%, with total profits of $1.6 million, and withdrew funds using the same Coinbase deposit address.Polymarket stated that it will monitor insider trading and other illegal activities, and has so far referred nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement agencies. Kalshi has also strengthened identity and employment information checks, and restricted participation in related markets by political candidates, athletes, and others who may influence outcomes.