election

According to CoinDesk, Brazilian companies turned to stablecoins during the elections last Sunday (October 25) to avoid the risk of local currency depreciation. The cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin stated that corporate accounts contributed 78% of the trading volume that day. On election day, the trading volume of USDT surged nearly 800% compared to the same day the previous week, more than three times the average of the previous four Sundays; Bitcoin trading volume increased by 865% compared to the previous Sunday.Data from Biscoint shows that the trading volume of USDT against the Brazilian real increased by 150% compared to the previous Sunday, while USDC increased by 318%. Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, stated that in the face of increasing exchange rate pressure, stablecoins like USDT and USDC provide a simple way to dollarize some assets. Concerns for businesses became reality on Monday: Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa index plummeted by 14%, marking the worst performance since March 2020; the dollar rose over 8% against the real, the largest single-day increase since 1999. On Monday, the combined trading volume of USDT and USDC reached 1.84 billion reais (approximately 350 million USD), up 65% from the previous week.

The cryptocurrency industry has spent approximately $176 million in this round of the U.S. midterm election cycle, covering over 100 elections, aiming to establish a bipartisan network of congressional allies to continue advancing legislative demands after Trump's departure. As of October 20, the super political action committee Fairshake and its affiliated organizations have spent about $150.8 million, with other cryptocurrency organizations spending around $25 million, major funders including Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z.Fairshake claims that among the 58 candidates it supported in primaries or special elections this year, 53 won. The organization supported bipartisan candidates in the House elections; after Senate Democrats blocked the CLARITY Act from reaching a final vote, it decided to support only Republican candidates in the Senate elections.The industry's spending in the Ohio Senate election has exceeded $68 million, focusing on long-time critic of the cryptocurrency industry Sherrod Brown, with related advertisements mostly avoiding mentioning cryptocurrencies and instead focusing on issues like taxes. Pushing for the passage of the CLARITY Act is a core goal of the industry, but the bill has stalled in this Congress. JPMorgan analysts indicate that without the bill, rules set by regulators during Trump's term may be overturned by subsequent administrations.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market Polymarket for the event "Israeli Elections: Likud Party Seat Count," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "20-24" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 32.5% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Israeli Legislative Election Winner" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Likud" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 31.5% an hour ago to the current 80.5% (a fluctuation of 49%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

An email from a Federal Election Commission (FEC) official shows that hackers are attempting to infiltrate U.S. election websites.

According to official news, the WCTC × Gate event market "Macro Prophet" activity has started and will last until November 25 at 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total reward value of 70,000 USDT. Eligible users who complete the WCTC S9 main event and register for this activity will be able to participate in the distribution of a reward pool valued at 20,000 USDT, provided that the daily effective trading volume in designated sectors related to the U.S. midterm elections and macro data reaches 200 USDT for at least 3 cumulative days.A separate cumulative trading volume leaderboard has a reward pool valued at 50,000 USDT, where users meeting the corresponding conditions can receive event market experience vouchers worth up to 8,250 USDT in total. The Gate event market has also launched a macro market special page, which visually displays the event probabilities, trading volumes, and market expectations for topics such as Federal Reserve interest rates, inflation, and employment, providing users with a reference for observing macro trends.Meanwhile, as of October 27, the total prize pool for the 11th phase of the Gate event market points activity has reached 70,049 USD, with the points prize pool being 11,074 USD and the lucky prize pool being 58,974 USD. The top position on the points leaderboard is expected to receive 4,152.75 USD. In conjunction with the ongoing League of Legends World Championship, Gate's "Summit Prediction Competition" is simultaneously offering a total reward pool valued at 150,000 USDT, covering initial predictions, phased trading tasks, canyon power rankings, and championship predictions, combining event result judgments with multi-stage participation tasks.

According to NPR, the prediction market platform Polymarket has launched an investigation into dozens of bets related to the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, focusing on potential insider trading and market manipulation. Sources say that at least two cases have been submitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Global Intelligence and Investigations Director, stated that the company has formed a 16-person team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system that generates hundreds of risk alerts daily. The monitoring scope includes U.S. compliant platforms that require identity verification, as well as international platforms that allow anonymous cryptocurrency trading.The system integrates analysis of social media, data from the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), cryptocurrency trading records, information from banking partners, and statistical models to identify abnormal accounts and trading patterns.

In the cryptocurrency industry, Coinbase ranks 5th among donation organizations with approximately 57.8 million USD, and 12th on the overall list; Ripple donated about 49.6 million USD, ranking 7th among donation organizations and 17th on the overall list; Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss donated a total of about 55.9 million USD, ranking 13th on the overall list; Foris Dax ranks 24th on the overall list with 39 million USD.

On the decentralized options platform Derive, a wallet purchased 800 Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $90,000 expiring on November 6, on October 20, with a nominal value of approximately $68 million, and netted about $940,000 by selling call options expiring in March and October 2027.Derive stated that this is the platform's largest open position in Bitcoin; the market's implied probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before Christmas rose from 9.7% to 12%, indicating that some traders are betting on a rise in Bitcoin after the U.S. midterm elections.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" in the event of the "Brazilian Presidential Election" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, rising from 32.8% an hour ago to the current 58.35% (a fluctuation of 25.55%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Serbian Parliamentary Election Winner" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 71.5% an hour ago to the current 55% (a fluctuation of 16.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict's monitoring of on-chain data, there is a prediction of significant capital movement in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $64,000 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 8%.

According to Bloomberg, the United States is increasing deployments in preparation for a possible resumption of military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that U.S. forces may resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections and has sent a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf to provide commanders with more options, although the exact timing remains uncertain.U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Israel this week without prior announcement and met with Netanyahu. Israel will hold elections on October 27. Meanwhile, after Iran-backed Houthi forces expanded the conflict to Saudi Arabia, attacking airports and energy facilities, the U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of some diplomatic personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia.A source familiar with Iran's thinking stated that Iran is preparing for a new round of bombings that may occur before and after the U.S. midterm elections and is planning retaliatory actions in the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates. This individual believes that the period from the end of the U.S. elections until the new Congress is sworn in in January will be the most difficult phase, with a way out being to reach an agreement that allows both sides to claim victory. Some officials from Gulf countries are concerned that the intensity of the conflict after its resumption may exceed that before the pause.Recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict have failed to yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated this week that if there is sufficient evidence showing that the U.S. genuinely wishes to reach a fair, dignified, and permanent resolution to end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance, but he also noted that there is currently not much reason to expect progress.The conflict has disrupted energy transportation in the Persian Gulf, pushing Brent crude oil prices up more than 80% this year and raising U.S. gasoline prices and living costs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 shows that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the war to last more than a year. Reports indicate that concerns over military escalation are once again driving up oil prices and affecting the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.

According to The Washington Post, based on data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the top 50 donors before the 2026 midterm election cycle have collectively contributed approximately $2.39 billion, with about $1.54 billion going to the Republican camp, about $590 million to the Democratic camp, and approximately $259 million to special interest groups.The cryptocurrency industry holds several positions among the major donors. Coinbase ranks 11th with approximately $57.7 million, while Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss have donated a total of about $55.3 million, placing them 12th; Ripple contributed about $49.6 million, and Foris Dax about $38.6 million. Among individual donors, Elon Musk leads with approximately $369 million, with his funds primarily directed towards super PACs and related organizations supporting Republican candidates.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $86,680.99 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections," betting on "Democratic Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 67%.

U.S. President Trump stated that there will be no bombing of Iran before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the U.S. is evacuating some non-emergency personnel from Saudi Arabia, reducing troop strength at some bases in the Middle East, and increasing aircraft carrier and amphibious forces. The Israeli military reportedly deployed dozens of fighter jets near the Iranian border this week before turning back, and the target list for strikes is also being updated.The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency government employees and their families only within Saudi Arabia, citing attacks on Saudi civilian targets related to Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Additionally, reports indicate that U.S. military forces have quietly reduced troop levels in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait in recent days. The Wall Street Journal states that the U.S. is dispatching another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with a third carrier strike group coming from the Pacific, and is sending an amphibious assault ship carrying Marines. If the new forces arrive and existing vessels are not rotated out, the total number of U.S. naval vessels in the region is expected to exceed 24, currently around 20.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly continuing to advocate for a large-scale strike against Iran, and U.S. officials even suspect that Israel is deliberately provoking Iran to fire. Israeli Channel 12 cited U.S. sources stating that earlier this week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq, approaching the Iranian border, with a flight path highly similar to that of an attack on Iran, turning back before entering Iranian airspace, which Israel claims was a drill and a deterrent. Pakistan, Qatar, and others are intensifying mediation, but the U.S. demands discussions on the nuclear program, while Iran hopes to first discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with no breakthroughs in negotiations yet.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $50,000 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 8.82%.