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BTC $68,823.25 -2.58%
ETH $2,081.76 -3.40%
BNB $629.50 -2.06%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $468.62 +0.49%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9251 -4.16%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

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Wintermute: The escalation of the Middle East situation combined with stagflation risks brings a temporary respite to the cryptocurrency market

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated on social media that the situation in the Middle East has entered its third week of escalation, with Brent crude oil rising 26% over the week. The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 to just one. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has outperformed all major asset classes except for crude oil, with BTC rising over the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all experienced declines.In terms of digital assets, BTC rebounded about 10% from Monday's low, marking seven consecutive days of gains, and has regained the $71,000 level; ETH followed suit and maintained above $2,000. The Coinbase BTC premium indicator has reset, as the structural pressure of discount that persisted for months has dissipated. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its first consecutive five-day net inflow in 2026, totaling $767 million, with $251 million flowing in on Monday alone, led by IBIT; the Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $160 million over four consecutive days.Strategy has increased its holdings by 1,360 BTC; Bitmine announced the purchase of ETH for $128 million, with the Ethereum Foundation selling 5,000 ETH directly to it through over-the-counter trading. The implied volatility index for BTC (DVOL) has compressed from 61 to 51, and the correlation between BTC and stocks has also significantly weakened.On the macro front, core PCE annualized at 3.1%, non-farm payrolls showed a decrease of 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with stagflation becoming the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most concentrated macro event in recent months.

The Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea, the Customs Service, and credit card companies join forces to combat cryptocurrency exchange and illegal overseas withdrawals

According to New Daily, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) of South Korea, the Customs Service, the Credit Finance Association, and nine credit card companies in the country signed the "Public-Private Cooperation Agreement to Block Transnational Criminal Funding" on the same day. The plan aims to cut off the funding chain for telephone fraud and virtual asset crimes at the source by analyzing overseas credit card usage details and entry and exit records.In the past, due to information gaps between agencies, the Customs Service had entry and exit data but could not monitor abnormal overseas consumption in real-time, while credit card companies had payment data but did not have access to cardholders' customs clearance dynamics. Under the new mechanism, the Customs Service will provide credit card companies with information on high-risk transaction trends, while the Financial Supervisory Service will establish guidelines authorizing credit card companies to take effective measures such as interrupting transactions when abnormalities are detected.Lee Chan-jin, the head of the Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea, stated that this move signifies that South Korea has established a normalized monitoring system to block the outflow of criminal proceeds at the source. The system will focus on precisely targeting currency exchange behaviors that involve cash withdrawals at overseas ATMs using overseas credit cards and laundering through cryptocurrencies.

Bloomberg strategists reaffirm that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000, while industry insiders counter that this would only happen in the event of extreme occurrences like nuclear war

According to CoinDesk, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his bearish view that Bitcoin could drop below $10,000, believing that the crypto market is still undergoing a macro-driven long-term adjustment.McGlone pointed out that as institutional participation increases, Bitcoin's correlation with speculative assets has strengthened, undermining its function as a non-correlated hedge against traditional markets. The current market needs to go through a clearing process of excessive speculation. Several analysts have refuted this. The CEO of Quantum Economics stated that for Bitcoin to reach $10,000, extreme events such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear war, and internet shutdown would be necessary.AdLunam analysts believe that a drop to $28,000 may require a global liquidity contraction or a broader financial stress event. PrimeXBT senior market analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with the next major accumulation zone possibly between $30,000 and $40,000, but the likelihood of reaching $10,000 is very low. Some analysts pointed out that Bitcoin completed a major bear market correction in 2022, and the current price is about 50% down from its historical peak, possibly having reached the bottom.
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