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outflow

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first_img Analysis: The significant net outflow of BTC spot ETFs from May to July reflects the absence of institutional buying, and the market may have entered the clearing tail end

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that this cycle is significantly different from the past due to the influx of traditional institutional funds brought in by the BTC spot ETF. He pointed out that the net flow of the ETF essentially records the subscription and redemption results of authorized participants (AP) in the primary market. It will only translate into net inflows or outflows in the data when the selling pressure in the secondary market continues to push the ETF price away from its net asset value and exceeds the arbitrage cost line.Murphy analyzed the data from glassnode and noted that from January to February, the market showed "high trading volume + slight net outflow," indicating that although there was obvious panic selling at that time, there was still a large amount of buying support. In contrast, from May to July, the market exhibited "low trading volume + significant net outflow." The more core signal was not a significant increase in selling pressure, but rather the absence of marginal buying, leading to the ETF consistently trading at a discount and resulting in AP redemptions.He believes that this stage is more likely to reflect a second round of "surrender" at the institutional level, which typically belongs to the tail-end clearing pattern of the market, and judges that this may provide new layout opportunities for retail investors, although the duration cannot be clearly determined by the current data.

Data: Binance and Bybit stablecoin outflows exceed 2.3 billion USD in 30 days, Bitcoin liquidity is depleted, and market sentiment is pessimistic

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the outflow of stablecoins from Binance and Bybit in the past 30 days exceeded $2.3 billion, leading to a depletion of Bitcoin liquidity. Bitcoin has been testing the critical price level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days. Although it briefly broke through $80,000 in May, it failed to maintain or reignite the upward momentum of Bitcoin.One of the reasons for this situation is the lack of new liquidity flowing into the market. Whether through direct investment in Bitcoin or investment in the entire crypto market, new demand has been difficult to realize. Observing the changes in stablecoin reserves at exchanges, the situation has been particularly poor since the beginning of the year, with a nearly continuous decline, reflecting that outflows are significantly exceeding inflows. In just the past 30 days, Binance's stablecoin reserves have decreased by $1.55 billion, while Bybit lost $786 million during the same period. The decline in reserves sends a clear signal: demand and liquidity are shrinking, and investors seem inclined to withdraw stablecoins from exchanges or even exit the market entirely. Therefore, it is this still overly pessimistic overall market sentiment that continues to deprive Bitcoin of the resources needed to break through the current consolidation range.

The South Korean Financial Commission responds to the controversy over single-stock leveraged ETFs: there is indeed an effect in preventing capital outflow, but it is not the main cause of stock market volatility

The Financial Services Commission of South Korea responded positively to the recent controversies surrounding single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) when it released supplementary regulatory measures. Byeon Je-ho, the Director of the Capital Markets Bureau of the Financial Services Commission, clearly stated that launching leveraged ETF products targeting single stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the domestic market has indeed had a significant effect in locking in domestic investment demand and preventing capital outflow to overseas leveraged markets like Hong Kong or the United States.In response to external accusations that single-stock leveraged ETFs are the "main culprit" behind the recent increase in volatility in the South Korean stock market, the Financial Services Commission refuted this claim. Byeon Je-ho pointed out that the recent dramatic market fluctuations cannot be solely explained by leveraged ETFs, with the core reason being the alternating expectations of the global semiconductor industry cycle. Data shows that from May 26 to July 10, the annualized daily return volatility of U.S. SanDisk (131%), Micron (123%), and Japan's Kioxia (118%) was higher than that of South Korea's SK Hynix (113%) and Samsung Electronics (96%). Additionally, some investors' contrarian operations have played a role in stabilizing stock prices to some extent.Regarding the demands from some politicians and market participants to "forcefully delist single-stock leveraged ETFs," the Financial Services Commission clearly rejected this request. The official explanation stated that delisting must meet statutory termination criteria such as a sharp decline in market value or a lack of liquidity providers (LPs), and currently, the market is showing signs of heating up due to excessive demand, which does not meet the delisting conditions. The Financial Services Commission indicated that such calls should be understood as the market's urgent expectation for strengthened compliance and robust regulatory measures.
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