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BTC $67,216.12 -0.67%
ETH $1,963.78 -1.07%
BNB $614.94 -0.02%
XRP $1.37 -1.64%
SOL $80.52 -2.57%
TRX $0.2787 +0.88%
DOGE $0.0918 -0.56%
ADA $0.2581 -0.90%
BCH $512.13 -1.45%
LINK $8.41 -0.72%
HYPE $30.53 +6.45%
AAVE $108.47 -0.05%
SUI $0.9089 -1.34%
XLM $0.1564 +0.00%
ZEC $240.02 +2.01%

price

Bitcoin miners enter the "surrender phase": production costs inverted, both hash rate and stock prices under pressure

Bitcoin mining has entered a severe phase, with unit hash rate revenue dropping to a historical low of about $35/PH. Affected by a significant market correction, the price of Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its 2025 peak of $126,000, currently hovering around the $60,000 range. Against this backdrop, the average production cost of a single Bitcoin across the network is approximately $87,000, about 45% higher than the current market price, marking the first large-scale "underwater operation" since the bear market of 2022.CryptoQuant defines the current phase as the "surrender phase," characterized by the accelerated shutdown of old mining machines and a noticeable contraction in overall network hash rate. As a result, the stock prices of listed mining companies such as MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms have dropped over 20% this week, with funds flowing towards more stable traditional assets like gold.Meanwhile, North America's mining hubs (especially Texas) are facing severe winter storms, forcing some mining farms to limit power usage to ensure the stability of the civilian power grid. Coupled with miner exits, the network experienced a historic difficulty adjustment of about 11% on February 9. However, due to the significant drop in coin prices, the profitability recovery effect from the difficulty adjustment is limited.The industry's "Miner Profitability Sustainability Index" has fallen to 21, indicating that, except for a few operators with low electricity costs and high efficiency, most miners have completely compressed profit margins. For companies with electricity prices above $0.05 per kilowatt-hour or those still using older model mining machines, this difficulty adjustment is unlikely to reverse the risk of total shutdown.To cope with the "2026 mining winter," leading companies are accelerating their transition to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). IREN and Core Scientific have redirected some of their data center power capacity to support generative AI businesses to secure more stable long-term contract revenues. Recently, Bitfarms announced a complete exit from Bitcoin mining to focus on its AI strategic transformation.

JPMorgan has significantly lowered the target price for Coinbase to $290, but there is still a potential upside of 75%

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington significantly lowered his target price for Coinbase stock from $399 to $290 ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which is set to be released this Thursday. Worthington remains optimistic about the stock, noting that the revised target price still implies a 75% upside from Coinbase's current price of $165.5.He expects adjusted EBITDA to be $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. He stated that this would represent a sharp decline compared to previous quarters, primarily driven by decreased trading volumes, weakening cryptocurrency prices, and a slowdown in the growth of USDC stablecoin balances. Worthington anticipates that the spot cryptocurrency trading volume for the quarter will be $263 billion.He also pointed out the reduction in circulating USDC and predicted stablecoin-related revenue to be $312 million. These adverse factors are partially offset by the total quarterly revenue contributed by Deribit (the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange acquired by Coinbase last August). Including Deribit, JPMorgan's model forecasts total trading revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing approximately $117 million based on an estimated trading volume of about $586 billion.In the previous quarter, the trading platform reported trading revenue of $1 billion. In terms of subscription and services revenue, the bank expects revenue to be $670 million, down from Coinbase's prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting weak cryptocurrency prices, declining staking yields, and a slowdown in USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to be below guidance due to the company's cost control measures.

Wintermute: The AI sector is siphoning off market liquidity, and persistent selling pressure in the U.S. is dominating the market. Bitcoin is entering a high volatility price discovery phase

Wintermute stated that Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show significant structural pressure. The Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state throughout the market process, persisting since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.Internal OTC fund flow data also confirms that U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week, and this trend has been further amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions. Over the past few months, AI-related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes. The phenomenon where crypto assets underperform when AI-related companies rise and experience amplified declines when they fall can almost entirely be explained by the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first. Microsoft's weak earnings report has initiated this process, but it is still far from enough. Last week's market was like a "surrender-style" clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000. In an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.If open interest cannot significantly rebound, it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow-through on either the long or short side. A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but there is currently almost no evidence of this. We are likely entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery. It will be hard to see sustained upward potential until the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Meanwhile, retail attention is being diverted to other asset classes, and market direction seems increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels.
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