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BTC $71,349.17 +7.37%
ETH $2,076.27 +6.84%
BNB $651.23 +4.69%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $460.40 +5.71%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

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Analysis: During the Bitcoin bear market phase, whales dominate CEX deposits, and stablecoin inflows sharply decrease

According to The Block, in the current bear market environment, the inflow of funds to Bitcoin trading platforms is dominated by large holders. Data shows that the whale ratio on trading platforms has risen to 0.64, the highest level since October 2015, indicating that 64% of the Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms comes from the top ten single deposit addresses, showing that large investors are leading the sell-off.At the same time, the average single transaction inflow to Bitcoin trading platforms has risen to 1.58 BTC, the highest level since the mid-point of the last bear market in June 2022. However, after Bitcoin pulled back to around $60,000 earlier this month, total inflows to trading platforms briefly surged to about 60,000 BTC (the highest since November 2024), before falling back to a 7-day average of about 23,000 BTC, a decrease of about 60% from the peak, indicating that the phase of panic selling has eased, but the overall inflow level is still higher than in previous months.In terms of altcoins, selling pressure is also evident. Since 2026, the average daily number of deposits for altcoins on trading platforms has been about 49,000, a 22% increase from about 40,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025. CryptoQuant points out that high altcoin deposits usually indicate rising volatility and reflect weak market confidence in non-Bitcoin assets. Additionally, the inflow of stablecoins has significantly declined. The daily net inflow of Tether (USDT) to trading platforms has dropped from a peak of $616 million in November 2025 to about $27 million recently, with multiple instances of net outflows during this period, including a single-day net outflow of $469 million on January 25, 2026.The institution believes that the decrease in stablecoin inflows means that the "ammunition" for marginal buying has diminished. Overall, CryptoQuant believes that the current market structure shows characteristics of concentrated Bitcoin selling at whale addresses, widespread distribution of altcoins, and a contraction in stablecoin liquidity, indicating that in the ongoing bear market phase, market demand is limited, and prices face further volatility risks.

The founder of the "Black Swan Fund" warns: the S&P 500 may drop sharply after reaching 8000 points

According to Jinshi News, Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the "Black Swan Fund" Universa Investments, stated that the upward trend of the U.S. stock market is far from over—at least for now.In a recent letter to investors, Spitznagel wrote that in the coming year, the market will continue to be in the "Goldilocks zone—where inflation and interest rates are declining, the economy is slowing but not excessively, and market sentiment turns euphoric—the stock market will continue to rise and end with a surge." However, he added that "the largest bubble in human history" has now entered its final stage.Spitznagel's hedge fund has been around for nearly two decades, focusing on tail risk hedging, which protects investors' portfolios from the impact of the next major crash. He stated that as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise—a view he has maintained since the end of 2022. In an interview, he mentioned that market euphoria could drive the S&P 500 index to 8,000 points or even higher—followed by a sharp reversal.What is concerning is that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rate levels for an extended period, companies will begin to struggle to raise funds. Spitznagel noted that although the economy appears resilient, there is a lag effect in monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve's excessive focus on lagging indicators like inflation has already fallen behind the situation."The Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, and as the economy gradually worsens, the market will expect more easing policies to be introduced," he said. In this context, the stock market will rise on expectations of more rate cuts, only to quickly decline during an economic slowdown. "At some point, the Federal Reserve will be powerless to turn things around, just like what happened in 2007 and 2008."
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