relation

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis stating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to its highest level since the birth of Bitcoin, while the scale of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest expenditures exceeding Medicare, becoming the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget.Fidelity pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year real interest rate has been low for a long time in the past, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, with the correlation rising above 0.6 in 2026, reaching a historic high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30%, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has increased by more than 10% during the same period.Fidelity believes that as government debt rises, financing costs increase, and concerns over fiscal intervention intensify, Bitcoin's fixed supply limit of 21 million coins may enhance its appeal as a potential hedge against currency depreciation and a portfolio diversification tool. If the current trends in debt and interest rates continue, government interest expenditures may even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future.Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has risen to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal year 2025, marking the highest level since the pandemic. Despite the Trump administration's commitment to cut spending, military expenditures, Social Security spending, and interest on national debt continue to rise, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further widening the fiscal deficit.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Amy Oldenburg, head of Morgan Stanley's digital asset-related business, stated in a video interview with Bitcoin Magazine that the investment logic of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is "quite sound." However, she hopes to see Bitcoin's trading performance align more closely with gold, rather than being highly correlated with technology-related risk assets. She mentioned that factors such as the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, demand for stablecoins, concerns about quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and inflation are all influencing the market's demand for Bitcoin.She also stated that she would not define Bitcoin's prospects based on a single day's market performance or a specific inflation data point. The interview also covered topics such as the application of stablecoins and USDT on the Bitcoin network, the client composition of Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, the pathways for clients to transfer self-held Bitcoin into ETF shares, and borrowing against Bitcoin ETFs and spot Bitcoin as collateral.In addition, Oldenburg introduced how Morgan Stanley assesses quantum risks and discussed how asset tokenization could change various asset classes, as well as the role of Morgan Stanley's Digital Asset Lab and AI agents in the future "agent economy."

CoinShares pointed out in its latest biweekly market report that last week, the net outflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF was $679 million, with a single-day net outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since June; the ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, accumulating nearly $700 million in outflows over nine consecutive trading days.BTC approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell back to about $80,300, and subsequently rebounded to around $83,500. The report shows that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has risen back to about 40% of the long-term average, while the correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen.CoinShares believes that the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be an important variable: if the core CPI rises by 0.3% month-on-month, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, putting BTC at risk of testing $80,000 again.

On October 8, 2026, Senator Richard Blumenthal, the chief member of the minority party of the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, sent a letter to Cantor Fitzgerald Chairman Brandon Lutnick, requesting the preservation of documents and answers regarding the company's relationship with the stablecoin issuer Tether. The deadline for responses to the five-page letter is October 23, 2026. This request comes from the minority party of the subcommittee, is part of an investigative inquiry, and is not a law enforcement order, nor does it constitute a determination against Cantor, nor does it alter the operation or redemption of USDT.The letter states that since President Trump took office again, the valuation of Cantor's 5% stake in Tether has risen from $600 million to an estimated $10 billion, with Cantor earning tens of millions of dollars each year for holding assets on behalf of Tether; former Cantor Chairman and current Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has profited over $250 million during the same period, including a $192 million distribution from Cantor. The page notes that the above content reflects allegations and estimates made by the senator, and does not represent conclusions drawn from this request. Blumenthal also wrote that Tether claims to operate in El Salvador, but the vast majority of its assets are in the U.S., held by Cantor.

Senior Democratic member of the U.S. Senate investigators, Senator Richard Blumenthal, is continuing to investigate the financial relationship of the stablecoin issuer Tether and has written to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Brandon Lutnick, requesting information regarding the relationship between the two companies.Brandon Lutnick is the son of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. After Howard Lutnick joined President Donald Trump's administration, Brandon Lutnick took over his leadership role at Cantor Fitzgerald. Cantor Fitzgerald holds and manages Tether's reserve assets in the U.S., and there are several other business interests between the two parties.

During Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to the United States, China and the United States reached an eight-point consensus on achievements. Both sides agreed to build a strategically stable relationship based on respect, fairness, and equality, and to support each other in hosting the APEC and G20 meetings. The two heads of state agreed on Iran's commitment to not develop nuclear weapons and recognized the positive role of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, reaching a mutual tariff reduction arrangement of 30 billion dollars. Both sides also agreed to establish a dialogue and communication channel for China-U.S. artificial intelligence.

On September 24, the trending topic "Doubao employees lament that Doubao has become a marginal product" topped Weibo's hot search. Previously, media reported that the Doubao General Session team had undergone personnel reductions. Following the dissemination of related content, statements such as "Doubao layoffs" and "half of the dialogue team cut" appeared online, with some claiming that internal employees lamented that Doubao was being marginalized.In response to the above statements, Doubao's public relations head Liu Xing posted a response stating: Some media reported that the Doubao Session team underwent organizational adjustments, and some self-media interpreted it as Doubao layoffs and cutting half of the Doubao dialogue team, which is inaccurate information; in fact, it is merely an organizational adjustment of responsibilities.According to Liu Xing, part of the functions of the Doubao General Session team has been split into the Doubao trading and Doubao work teams, with relevant personnel being transferred accordingly. Many employees are still engaged in dialogue experience-related work, such as optimizing the trading dialogue experience on the trading side. The team has fewer than 50 people, and the adjustment of responsibilities involves 11 individuals, of which 3 have left. He emphasized that statements in some self-media reports, such as "Doubao layoffs affecting 200 million users" and "half of the dialogue team cut," are inaccurate.

India warns that the U.S. sanctions bill against buyers of Russian oil could harm U.S.-India relations and disrupt the global energy market. The bill has passed in the U.S. Congress, granting Trump new powers to impose tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil products. India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil and is seeking to diversify its supply.

Danielle Beck posted on X that she has joined HyperliquidPC as the Director of Government Relations. She stated that after working for over a decade in the intersecting fields of policy, agriculture, commodities, and advocacy, she looks forward to applying her relevant experience to new challenges.She mentioned that there is room to shape the development of on-chain markets in the United States and that the relevant policy framework should be clear, feasible, and informed by the people and industries that rely on the market. She also stated that she will collaborate with the HPC team, including Jake Chervinsky, Adam Minehardt, Salah Ghazzal, Brad Bourque, Golovina, and Sianna Bird.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has shown a relatively independent trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a significant decrease in its short-term correlation with the US dollar index and US stocks. Alice Liu, the research director at CoinMarketCap, stated that the short-term correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US dollar index has dropped to 0.08, compared to -0.54 over the past 30 days; its correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have decreased to 0.43 and 0.3, respectively, from 0.75 and 0.6 the previous day.Liu believes that the market has recently shifted its attention to the CLARITY Act, which failed to pass a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday, temporarily overshadowing regulatory progress with macro factors. As the correlation weakens, the strategy of hedging Bitcoin long positions by shorting S&P 500 futures has currently decreased in reliability. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a scenario that has been largely priced in.This decision will test whether Bitcoin can re-establish its linkage with the US dollar and US stocks; traders also need to pay attention to the guidance after the meeting and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, as a significant rise in the latter could tighten financial conditions and drive risk-averse capital flows into the crypto market.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently advocated for third-party assessment organizations like METR to have long-term access to cutting-edge AI companies, gaining near-employee level permissions to inspect safety measures, incidents, and model training processes. However, an investigation by the New York Post found that the relationship between METR and the AI safety circle of Anthropic is much closer than typical external audits.METR was originally called ARC Evals, incubated at the Alignment Research Center founded by Paul Christiano. Christiano previously worked with Amodei at OpenAI, and the New York Post reported that the two were also former roommates; he later became one of the initial five trustees of the Anthropic Long-Term Benefit Trust. The current technical staff member at METR, Ajeya Cotra, is Christiano's wife and previously managed AI safety funding at Coefficient Giving.When METR evaluated Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta this year, there was no applicable conflict of interest policy in place, nor was there a formal avoidance process conducted. METR disclosed that among the employees and collaborators directly involved in the projects, at least six had close personal relationships with employees of the AI companies. METR stated that it does not accept funding from cutting-edge AI companies and their employees, nor does it charge for risk assessments; however, these companies provide a large number of model tokens for free.

According to Protos, the 90-day price correlation between BTC and gold has risen to 0.56, up from a previous high of about 0.5 in November 2020, reaching the highest level since statistics have been available from most data providers since 2017. During the same period, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to about 0.3, marking a one-year low.In a 30-day window, the correlation between BTC and gold further increased to 0.72, while the correlation with the Nasdaq Composite Index is only about 0.22. Since August, the flow of funds around the "currency devaluation trade" has reinforced BTC's narrative as "digital gold."

The Kobeissi Letter stated that the price trends of Bitcoin and gold are increasingly synchronized. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices has risen to +0.50, nearly matching the historical high reached during the pandemic in 2020, and this value has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.In contrast, after the recovery from the 2022 bear market, this 90-day correlation had risen to +0.30. The account noted that the recent acceleration in correlation occurred after the U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, increasing from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction.Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to about 0.30, a one-year low. The account indicated that investors are increasingly viewing both gold and Bitcoin as tools to hedge against currency depreciation.

Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, pointed out in a client memo that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level in nearly six years. Bitcoin rose by 22.4% in a week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2024, while gold increased by about 5%, and the stock market declined. The last time similar data appeared was in 2020, when governments and central banks around the world implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Bitwise noted that according to its 90-day indicator, as of the end of August, Bitcoin had a negative correlation with the US dollar index, which means that a weakening dollar would be beneficial for Bitcoin and gold.

Bitwise's latest report shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to a six-year high. Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, stated that the last time the correlation reached this level was in 2020, during the period of multiple fiscal and monetary stimulus following the COVID-19 pandemic; meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has dropped to a one-year low, suggesting a decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.The report believes that the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and gold is due to the "substantial intervention in the macro picture" by the U.S. government. Last month, the U.S. Treasury announced it would more than double the scale of government debt buybacks, leading to a weakening of the dollar, and investors flocked back to gold and Bitcoin; in the same week, U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, further undermining market confidence in the dollar. Bitwise stated that investors are no longer entangled in whether to hedge against currency depreciation with gold or Bitcoin, but are holding both simultaneously, and pointed out that "Bitcoin has been priced as a risk asset for its first fifteen years, and if this correlation trend continues, the next fifteen years could be very different."Driven by this, Bitcoin rose again this week, increasing nearly 6% within 24 hours, with the price briefly approaching $81,438.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted that over the past 6 months, Bitcoin's correlation with the U.S. stock market has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging market assets, and U.S. Treasuries.He stated that Bitcoin's historical correlation with U.S. stocks has roughly maintained around 0.4, while gold and U.S. Treasuries have seen a significant increase in their linkage with U.S. stocks recently.Balchunas noted that although this time window is relatively short, it is sufficient to refute the claim that "Bitcoin is just another QQQ."

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X that Bitcoin and the stock market are decoupling, with the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 approaching a nearly two-year low.Glassnode stated that the close relationship with stocks that previously defined the recent downward trend is fading.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past year, during the rise of risk assets driven by AI, Bitcoin's trading performance has been more aligned with high-beta assets, but this situation may be reversing. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from slightly above 0 at the beginning of the year to over 50%. Grayscale believes this change may indicate that investors are refocusing on Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and store of value function.Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, and the ongoing fiscal deficit along with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has led the market to once again pay attention to assets that can hedge against the deterioration of fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Pandl pointed out that Bitcoin has no central issuer, its issuance rules are transparent, and its maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins. In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency is being reassessed, Bitcoin can serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative asset beyond gold. Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market phase.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee published a post listing 17 large-cap stocks (with a market capitalization of over $2 billion) that have a high correlation with cryptocurrencies, for stock investors seeking crypto exposure.Among them, BMNR has the highest correlation with ETH at 80%, followed by COIN (74%); MSTR has the highest correlation with BTC at 78%, followed by COIN (74%).Tom Lee stated that he expects ETH to outperform BTC in this cycle, driven by tokenization and AI applications, believing that this logic is far more important than the factors that have historically driven ETH's outperformance in cycles.

According to CoinDesk, the Trump family-associated crypto project World Liberty Financial stated that it does not own, operate, or control the Hong Kong artificial intelligence platform WorldClaw, which only uses its stablecoin USD1 as a payment channel.WorldClaw provides developers with access to multiple AI model services through WorldRouter, supporting payments in USD1, with some plans available through locking WLFI tokens.World Liberty did not specify whether it or its affiliates hold equity in WorldClaw, provide financing, charge licensing fees, or participate in revenue sharing. WorldClaw's terms indicate that its services are not open to residents, companies, and citizens of the United States and China.