correlation

Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an analysis stating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to its highest level since the birth of Bitcoin, while the scale of U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest expenditures exceeding Medicare, becoming the second-largest expenditure item in the federal budget.Fidelity pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year real interest rate has been low for a long time in the past, but has gradually turned positive in recent years, with the correlation rising above 0.6 in 2026, reaching a historic high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30%, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has increased by more than 10% during the same period.Fidelity believes that as government debt rises, financing costs increase, and concerns over fiscal intervention intensify, Bitcoin's fixed supply limit of 21 million coins may enhance its appeal as a potential hedge against currency depreciation and a portfolio diversification tool. If the current trends in debt and interest rates continue, government interest expenditures may even become the largest expenditure item in the federal budget in the future.Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has risen to $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal year 2025, marking the highest level since the pandemic. Despite the Trump administration's commitment to cut spending, military expenditures, Social Security spending, and interest on national debt continue to rise, coupled with a decline in corporate tax revenue, further widening the fiscal deficit.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Amy Oldenburg, head of Morgan Stanley's digital asset-related business, stated in a video interview with Bitcoin Magazine that the investment logic of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is "quite sound." However, she hopes to see Bitcoin's trading performance align more closely with gold, rather than being highly correlated with technology-related risk assets. She mentioned that factors such as the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, demand for stablecoins, concerns about quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and inflation are all influencing the market's demand for Bitcoin.She also stated that she would not define Bitcoin's prospects based on a single day's market performance or a specific inflation data point. The interview also covered topics such as the application of stablecoins and USDT on the Bitcoin network, the client composition of Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, the pathways for clients to transfer self-held Bitcoin into ETF shares, and borrowing against Bitcoin ETFs and spot Bitcoin as collateral.In addition, Oldenburg introduced how Morgan Stanley assesses quantum risks and discussed how asset tokenization could change various asset classes, as well as the role of Morgan Stanley's Digital Asset Lab and AI agents in the future "agent economy."

CoinShares pointed out in its latest biweekly market report that last week, the net outflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF was $679 million, with a single-day net outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since June; the ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, accumulating nearly $700 million in outflows over nine consecutive trading days.BTC approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell back to about $80,300, and subsequently rebounded to around $83,500. The report shows that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has risen back to about 40% of the long-term average, while the correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen.CoinShares believes that the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be an important variable: if the core CPI rises by 0.3% month-on-month, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, putting BTC at risk of testing $80,000 again.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has shown a relatively independent trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a significant decrease in its short-term correlation with the US dollar index and US stocks. Alice Liu, the research director at CoinMarketCap, stated that the short-term correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US dollar index has dropped to 0.08, compared to -0.54 over the past 30 days; its correlation coefficients with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have decreased to 0.43 and 0.3, respectively, from 0.75 and 0.6 the previous day.Liu believes that the market has recently shifted its attention to the CLARITY Act, which failed to pass a key procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday, temporarily overshadowing regulatory progress with macro factors. As the correlation weakens, the strategy of hedging Bitcoin long positions by shorting S&P 500 futures has currently decreased in reliability. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a scenario that has been largely priced in.This decision will test whether Bitcoin can re-establish its linkage with the US dollar and US stocks; traders also need to pay attention to the guidance after the meeting and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, as a significant rise in the latter could tighten financial conditions and drive risk-averse capital flows into the crypto market.

According to Protos, the 90-day price correlation between BTC and gold has risen to 0.56, up from a previous high of about 0.5 in November 2020, reaching the highest level since statistics have been available from most data providers since 2017. During the same period, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to about 0.3, marking a one-year low.In a 30-day window, the correlation between BTC and gold further increased to 0.72, while the correlation with the Nasdaq Composite Index is only about 0.22. Since August, the flow of funds around the "currency devaluation trade" has reinforced BTC's narrative as "digital gold."

The Kobeissi Letter stated that the price trends of Bitcoin and gold are increasingly synchronized. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices has risen to +0.50, nearly matching the historical high reached during the pandemic in 2020, and this value has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.In contrast, after the recovery from the 2022 bear market, this 90-day correlation had risen to +0.30. The account noted that the recent acceleration in correlation occurred after the U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, increasing from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction.Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to about 0.30, a one-year low. The account indicated that investors are increasingly viewing both gold and Bitcoin as tools to hedge against currency depreciation.

Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, pointed out in a client memo that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level in nearly six years. Bitcoin rose by 22.4% in a week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2024, while gold increased by about 5%, and the stock market declined. The last time similar data appeared was in 2020, when governments and central banks around the world implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Bitwise noted that according to its 90-day indicator, as of the end of August, Bitcoin had a negative correlation with the US dollar index, which means that a weakening dollar would be beneficial for Bitcoin and gold.

Bitwise's latest report shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to a six-year high. Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, stated that the last time the correlation reached this level was in 2020, during the period of multiple fiscal and monetary stimulus following the COVID-19 pandemic; meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has dropped to a one-year low, suggesting a decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.The report believes that the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and gold is due to the "substantial intervention in the macro picture" by the U.S. government. Last month, the U.S. Treasury announced it would more than double the scale of government debt buybacks, leading to a weakening of the dollar, and investors flocked back to gold and Bitcoin; in the same week, U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, further undermining market confidence in the dollar. Bitwise stated that investors are no longer entangled in whether to hedge against currency depreciation with gold or Bitcoin, but are holding both simultaneously, and pointed out that "Bitcoin has been priced as a risk asset for its first fifteen years, and if this correlation trend continues, the next fifteen years could be very different."Driven by this, Bitcoin rose again this week, increasing nearly 6% within 24 hours, with the price briefly approaching $81,438.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted that over the past 6 months, Bitcoin's correlation with the U.S. stock market has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging market assets, and U.S. Treasuries.He stated that Bitcoin's historical correlation with U.S. stocks has roughly maintained around 0.4, while gold and U.S. Treasuries have seen a significant increase in their linkage with U.S. stocks recently.Balchunas noted that although this time window is relatively short, it is sufficient to refute the claim that "Bitcoin is just another QQQ."

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X that Bitcoin and the stock market are decoupling, with the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 approaching a nearly two-year low.Glassnode stated that the close relationship with stocks that previously defined the recent downward trend is fading.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past year, during the rise of risk assets driven by AI, Bitcoin's trading performance has been more aligned with high-beta assets, but this situation may be reversing. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from slightly above 0 at the beginning of the year to over 50%. Grayscale believes this change may indicate that investors are refocusing on Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and store of value function.Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, and the ongoing fiscal deficit along with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has led the market to once again pay attention to assets that can hedge against the deterioration of fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Pandl pointed out that Bitcoin has no central issuer, its issuance rules are transparent, and its maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins. In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency is being reassessed, Bitcoin can serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative asset beyond gold. Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market phase.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee published a post listing 17 large-cap stocks (with a market capitalization of over $2 billion) that have a high correlation with cryptocurrencies, for stock investors seeking crypto exposure.Among them, BMNR has the highest correlation with ETH at 80%, followed by COIN (74%); MSTR has the highest correlation with BTC at 78%, followed by COIN (74%).Tom Lee stated that he expects ETH to outperform BTC in this cycle, driven by tokenization and AI applications, believing that this logic is far more important than the factors that have historically driven ETH's outperformance in cycles.

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

According to The Block, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated that there has been a noticeable but subtle improvement in Bitcoin market sentiment over the past month, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is weakening, which is healthy for the argument of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool and tail risk hedge.He pointed out that Bitcoin significantly outperformed during the major pullback in the AI sector in July, which is a manifestation of this decoupling. Although Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year and about 50% from a year ago, ETF investors continue to buy—last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $693.7 million (over 80%) and Fidelity's FBTC contributing $116.4 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that after the Coldcard vulnerability was exposed, multiple funds recorded net inflows daily, "it's hard not to see it as a causal relationship."

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has returned to the levels of the digital gold era.

According to CoinDesk, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Strategy perpetual preferred stock STRC and Bitcoin has risen to nearly 0.70, the highest level since its launch in July 2025, diminishing its appeal as a relatively stable income tool.This month, STRC has cumulatively fallen 23% to $76, far below its par value of $100; Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20% during the same period to below $60,000. STRC currently has an annualized dividend yield of 11.5%, and its trading below par value limits Strategy's ability to raise funds through additional issuance to purchase Bitcoin.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as a "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure.Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range. Analysts point out that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the DXY from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it will typically trigger trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index; a stronger dollar usually suppresses risk assets priced in dollars. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic supporting the dollar and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to Jinshi reports, the Iran war has restored the traditional relationship between the dollar and stock market volatility, with risk-averse investors flocking back to U.S. assets. Since the outbreak of the war, the positive correlation between the dollar and the fear index VIX has continued to strengthen, currently nearing its highest level since 2024. Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank, stated that if the situation in the Gulf region does not trigger a significant and sustained rebound in VIX, the dollar may further widen its decline.