correlation

According to Protos, the 90-day price correlation between BTC and gold has risen to 0.56, up from a previous high of about 0.5 in November 2020, reaching the highest level since statistics have been available from most data providers since 2017. During the same period, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to about 0.3, marking a one-year low.In a 30-day window, the correlation between BTC and gold further increased to 0.72, while the correlation with the Nasdaq Composite Index is only about 0.22. Since August, the flow of funds around the "currency devaluation trade" has reinforced BTC's narrative as "digital gold."

The Kobeissi Letter stated that the price trends of Bitcoin and gold are increasingly synchronized. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices has risen to +0.50, nearly matching the historical high reached during the pandemic in 2020, and this value has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.In contrast, after the recovery from the 2022 bear market, this 90-day correlation had risen to +0.30. The account noted that the recent acceleration in correlation occurred after the U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, increasing from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction.Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to about 0.30, a one-year low. The account indicated that investors are increasingly viewing both gold and Bitcoin as tools to hedge against currency depreciation.

Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, pointed out in a client memo that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level in nearly six years. Bitcoin rose by 22.4% in a week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2024, while gold increased by about 5%, and the stock market declined. The last time similar data appeared was in 2020, when governments and central banks around the world implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Bitwise noted that according to its 90-day indicator, as of the end of August, Bitcoin had a negative correlation with the US dollar index, which means that a weakening dollar would be beneficial for Bitcoin and gold.

Bitwise's latest report shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to a six-year high. Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, stated that the last time the correlation reached this level was in 2020, during the period of multiple fiscal and monetary stimulus following the COVID-19 pandemic; meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has dropped to a one-year low, suggesting a decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.The report believes that the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and gold is due to the "substantial intervention in the macro picture" by the U.S. government. Last month, the U.S. Treasury announced it would more than double the scale of government debt buybacks, leading to a weakening of the dollar, and investors flocked back to gold and Bitcoin; in the same week, U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, further undermining market confidence in the dollar. Bitwise stated that investors are no longer entangled in whether to hedge against currency depreciation with gold or Bitcoin, but are holding both simultaneously, and pointed out that "Bitcoin has been priced as a risk asset for its first fifteen years, and if this correlation trend continues, the next fifteen years could be very different."Driven by this, Bitcoin rose again this week, increasing nearly 6% within 24 hours, with the price briefly approaching $81,438.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted that over the past 6 months, Bitcoin's correlation with the U.S. stock market has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging market assets, and U.S. Treasuries.He stated that Bitcoin's historical correlation with U.S. stocks has roughly maintained around 0.4, while gold and U.S. Treasuries have seen a significant increase in their linkage with U.S. stocks recently.Balchunas noted that although this time window is relatively short, it is sufficient to refute the claim that "Bitcoin is just another QQQ."

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X that Bitcoin and the stock market are decoupling, with the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 approaching a nearly two-year low.Glassnode stated that the close relationship with stocks that previously defined the recent downward trend is fading.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that over the past year, during the rise of risk assets driven by AI, Bitcoin's trading performance has been more aligned with high-beta assets, but this situation may be reversing. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from slightly above 0 at the beginning of the year to over 50%. Grayscale believes this change may indicate that investors are refocusing on Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and store of value function.Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, and the ongoing fiscal deficit along with rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has led the market to once again pay attention to assets that can hedge against the deterioration of fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Pandl pointed out that Bitcoin has no central issuer, its issuance rules are transparent, and its maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins. In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency is being reassessed, Bitcoin can serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative asset beyond gold. Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market phase.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee published a post listing 17 large-cap stocks (with a market capitalization of over $2 billion) that have a high correlation with cryptocurrencies, for stock investors seeking crypto exposure.Among them, BMNR has the highest correlation with ETH at 80%, followed by COIN (74%); MSTR has the highest correlation with BTC at 78%, followed by COIN (74%).Tom Lee stated that he expects ETH to outperform BTC in this cycle, driven by tokenization and AI applications, believing that this logic is far more important than the factors that have historically driven ETH's outperformance in cycles.

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

According to The Block, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated that there has been a noticeable but subtle improvement in Bitcoin market sentiment over the past month, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is weakening, which is healthy for the argument of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool and tail risk hedge.He pointed out that Bitcoin significantly outperformed during the major pullback in the AI sector in July, which is a manifestation of this decoupling. Although Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year and about 50% from a year ago, ETF investors continue to buy—last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $693.7 million (over 80%) and Fidelity's FBTC contributing $116.4 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that after the Coldcard vulnerability was exposed, multiple funds recorded net inflows daily, "it's hard not to see it as a causal relationship."

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has returned to the levels of the digital gold era.

According to CoinDesk, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Strategy perpetual preferred stock STRC and Bitcoin has risen to nearly 0.70, the highest level since its launch in July 2025, diminishing its appeal as a relatively stable income tool.This month, STRC has cumulatively fallen 23% to $76, far below its par value of $100; Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20% during the same period to below $60,000. STRC currently has an annualized dividend yield of 11.5%, and its trading below par value limits Strategy's ability to raise funds through additional issuance to purchase Bitcoin.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as a "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure.Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range. Analysts point out that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the DXY from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it will typically trigger trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index; a stronger dollar usually suppresses risk assets priced in dollars. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic supporting the dollar and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to Jinshi reports, the Iran war has restored the traditional relationship between the dollar and stock market volatility, with risk-averse investors flocking back to U.S. assets. Since the outbreak of the war, the positive correlation between the dollar and the fear index VIX has continued to strengthen, currently nearing its highest level since 2024. Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank, stated that if the situation in the Gulf region does not trigger a significant and sustained rebound in VIX, the dollar may further widen its decline.

CryptoQuant posted on social media that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.88, setting a new low.This means that the two show a strong negative correlation trend, with capital flowing into Bitcoin pushing its price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a slight decline.

According to the macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019 shows that oil price trends exhibit a "two-phase" pattern: the first phase is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing reflects uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, on the fifth day of the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9%, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks in advance.The second phase is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when the 25-day inventory buffer of Gulf countries is exhausted, leading to forced production cuts. The historical average increase during this phase is 44%, with extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report notes that the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from a normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, and Gulf countries have only 25 days of buffer left. When the tank utilization rate reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, and oil prices will enter an accelerated phase of the "scarcity digestion period." If oil prices remain between $85 and $95, a CPI increase of 30-40 basis points is manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-$130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices exceed $180, CPI will rise by over 300 basis points, possibly triggering stagflation.Currently, Bitcoin maintains a correlation of over 0.9 with tech stocks. If oil prices remain above $110, a CPI rise to 3% and real interest rates exceeding 2.5% will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks, at which point the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may break, triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, inventory utilization rates in Gulf countries, CPI data on March 11, Federal Reserve guidance on March 18, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate exceeds 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows.

A Bank of America (BofA) survey in February showed that investors' bearish positions on the dollar have fallen to the lowest level since 2012, with dollar allocations at a historically low level.Traditionally, a weaker dollar is usually favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, but the report noted that since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the dollar index, with a 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.6 at one point. Analysts believe that if this correlation continues, further declines in the dollar may not be beneficial for Bitcoin and could instead put pressure on it; conversely, if the dollar rebounds due to short covering, Bitcoin may rise accordingly, and market volatility could significantly increase.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated on the X platform that, contrary to the current mainstream view, BTC, ETH, Solana, and hyperliquid may be good options for diversified investments.Since the beginning of 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and gold prices has been low, at only 0.14. Gold has led Bitcoin in the last two Bitcoin bull markets.