sopr

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are currently at a loss relative to their entry cost, but the realized loss is limited, and there are no signs of large-scale selling or capitulation in the market. The STH MVRV is approximately maintained at 0.94, remaining below the 1.0 parity level for 98 consecutive days, corresponding to over three months of sustained unrealized losses. This group has a realized price of about $67,300, while the spot price is around $63,200, with an average unrealized loss of about 6%. The price still stands above the -1σ support level of $59,300, with a deeper pressure zone at -2σ located at $49,200, showing a controllable pullback rather than structural damage.In terms of behavioral indicators, the STH SOPR (7-day moving average) is running at about 0.996, slightly below 1.0, indicating that this group is on average realizing small losses, but the losses are shallow and close to the breakeven line. The indicator has recently fluctuated narrowly between 0.996 and 1.002, briefly touching 1.0 on August 10 before retreating, with no signs of a deep selling wave. MVRV and SOPR corroborate each other: short-term holders are under pressure and realizing small losses, but this has not evolved into panic selling.Analysis points out that an upward recovery requires SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 and MVRV to rise above 1.0 (with the spot price breaking above the realized price of about $67,300); the downside risk lies in losing the $59,300 -1σ support and extending towards $49,200, while SOPR further weakens. The current structure is still supported, with pressure present but no signs of capitulation selling yet.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the current Bitcoin market correction is more severe than in February. The 30-day average inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has risen to 122,000 coins, significantly higher than the annual baseline of 82,000 coins, and about 50% higher than the average of around 80,000 coins during the February sell-off period, approaching the upper range of 131,000 coins. Meanwhile, the price has dropped from $77,000-$78,000 to the current approximately $59,000.At the same time, the 30-day average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to 0.99, consistently below the critical level of 1, indicating that the market is, on average, in a state of realized losses. From May to July, this indicator was below 1 for 37 out of 61 days. The combination of these two indicators shows that the volume of sell-offs and realized losses makes the current correction more pronounced than in February. Adler pointed out that this is not a temporary pressure event, but rather a continuous selling process. For the market to stabilize, two signals need to appear simultaneously: SOPR rising above 1 (meaning that those selling coins are no longer losing money), and the inflow to exchanges returning to annual normal levels. The main risk is that if a large amount of coins continues to flow into exchanges, the supply pressure will persist, making it difficult for market sentiment to improve.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform that Bitcoin was rejected again at $82,000, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still not managed to stay above 1, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rebound. Currently, crude oil is close to $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining high for a long time.

CryptoQuant analyst Oro Crypto (@oro_crypto) stated that the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) of Bitcoin has returned to a structurally key area. This indicator has remained above 1 for 9 consecutive trading days since May 1, indicating that the market is continuously realizing profit sales.aSOPR is used to measure whether the Bitcoin being spent on-chain is in a profit or loss state. A value greater than 1 indicates that, on average, the spent BTC is being sold at a profit, while a value less than 1 indicates that it is being handled at a loss. The significance of this signal lies in its persistence; the consecutive 9-day sequence reduces noise interference and shows that a substantial change in market structure has occurred. The last similar consecutive profit sequence appeared from October 19 to November 4, 2025, during which BTC also experienced several consecutive days of on-chain profit spending.From a market structure perspective, this indicates that Bitcoin is absorbing profit-taking selling pressure, and the price structure has not immediately deteriorated, showing that the market currently exhibits sufficient absorption capacity. This reading does not necessarily mean entering a euphoric phase, but rather indicates that the market has shifted from a loss realization environment to a phase where participants are continuously realizing profits. As long as aSOPR remains above 1, the market structure remains constructive: participants are cashing in profits while the market maintains its absorption capacity. The key failure level is clear: if the indicator continues to fall below the 1 threshold, it means the market will start handling tokens at a loss again, which would weaken the current constructive signal.Bitcoin is not only being sold again at a profit, but this process is also persistent. This persistence transforms aSOPR into a constructive signal reflecting internal market improvement, marking the most significant positive sequence since October to November 2025.

Bitfinex released an analysis report indicating that the decline in inflation in the U.S. market and the rise in interest rate cut expectations provide psychological support for risk assets, but the cryptocurrency market is more likely to experience phase fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduces systemic liquidity risks, which historically tends to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery is relatively slow, and selling pressure on spot Bitcoin re-emerged earlier this week, with cumulative sell-offs reaching several billion dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb sell orders has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, reflecting that most cryptocurrencies are being transferred at a loss, indicating that structural pressure still exists.The current macro environment provides a certain liquidity buffer for the cryptocurrency market, but it is still insufficient to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has tactical rebound potential in the short term, while long-term structural upward movement requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand support.

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the average purchase price of short-term holders (i.e., the STH-SOPR (30D) shown in the chart has dropped to 0.98). Two on-chain indicators show that the selling pressure from new market participants is increasing.The SOPR 30D indicator measures the average token sales of short-term holders: a value above 1 indicates profitable sales, while a value below 1 indicates sales at a loss. The chart shows that the 30-day SOPR moving average has fallen to the 0.98 range, which means that short-term holders are, on average, selling tokens at a loss. A further decline in this indicator will intensify selling pressure and lead to new local lows.Currently, the market exhibits a strong risk-averse sentiment for short-term holdings. Key reversal confirmation signals: the price rises above the actual price of STH, and the SOPR rises above 1.

The on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant stated that the Bitcoin SOPR ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) has dropped to 1.35, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2024. This decline coincides with Bitcoin's price retreating to the level of $89,700. A higher ratio typically indicates that long-term holders (LTH) are actively taking profits compared to short-term holders (STH).The sharp drop in the ratio to 1.35 suggests that the large-scale distribution phase of older coins has significantly subsided. The actual profit gap between seasoned investors and newcomers is narrowing. This decline indicates that the market is undergoing a large-scale "reset." The speculative bubble that previously drove the ratio to soar has been cleared. Historically, when the SOPR ratio falls to these lower limits during an overall bull market cycle, it usually signals that selling is about to exhaust. If the ratio stabilizes or rebounds from the level of 1.35, it may indicate that a local bottom is forming, laying a more solid foundation for the next upward movement.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, CryptoQuant analysts indicate that after BTC broke the $100,000 mark, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) began to take profits. CryptoQuant data shows that the "Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio" (LTH-SOPR) has significantly increased, which measures the profit level of long-term Bitcoin investors by comparing the selling price of Bitcoin to the price they initially paid.CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated, "As Bitcoin's price rises above $100,000, long-term holders (LTH) have been taking profits, as indicated by the LTH SOPR rising to 4, which shows that the tokens sold by long-term holders have realized profits four times their original purchase price. However, this is a normal phenomenon during a Bitcoin bull market, and profit-taking is still far from reaching extreme levels."