sentiment

According to the latest weekly report from Gate Ventures, market risk appetite continues to be under pressure, and the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a pullback. BTC fell 3.7% over the week, ETH fell 1.2%, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies declined by 3.1%, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining in the "Extreme Fear" range. In terms of capital flow, digital asset investment products continued to see net outflows, with the spot BTC ETF experiencing a net outflow of $226.8 million in a single week, and the spot ETH ETF seeing a net outflow of $10 million, reflecting ongoing market hesitation. Meanwhile, STRC under Strategy has traded below par for the fifth consecutive week, and the market continues to pay attention to its subsequent capital operations and yield adjustment space.In terms of industry development, stablecoin payments and RWA infrastructure construction are being continuously advanced. Trace Finance has completed $32 million in financing to expand its compliant stablecoin payment network and cross-border settlement infrastructure; Philippine regulators have released positive signals supporting the development of RWA tokenization, with related explorations further deepening. In terms of investment and financing, four financing transactions were disclosed last week, with a total financing amount of $39.5 million, of which the DeFi sector accounted for the majority. Overall, although the market is still in a correction phase in the short term, stablecoin payments, RWA, and underlying infrastructure construction remain important directions of ongoing industry focus.

According to The Block, Ben Slavin, the global ETF head at Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), stated that asset managers are accelerating their tokenized ETF plans, driven mainly by investor demand and the FOMO sentiment of fearing to miss early opportunities in blockchain finance. Slavin revealed that BNY has multiple tokenized ETF projects underway, and although the regulatory environment and infrastructure are not yet fully ready, many clients wish to launch products as soon as possible. He believes that blockchain networks are expected to become a new distribution channel for traditional investment products, enabling around-the-clock holding and transfer of fund shares, shortening settlement times, and expanding coverage for global investors.Slavin also pointed out that currently, hundreds of well-known ETFs are trading in tokenized form in unregulated markets, and most of these have not been directly authorized by the fund sponsors, which poses reputational risks. This topic has become a focal point for discussions among BNY's asset management clients. Although the industry is still exploring core issues such as the integration of tokenized funds with existing infrastructure, secondary trading mechanisms, and regulatory frameworks, Slavin stated that asset managers are increasingly inclined to believe that "getting in early" in this field is more important than "waiting for clarity."

According to Jinshi reports, the Nasdaq 100 index has turned down, indicating a weakening of market sentiment.

According to Gate market data, the S&P 500 index has turned down, indicating a weakening of market sentiment.

Jiang Zhuoer stated that MicroStrategy (MSTR) currently holds approximately $55 billion in Bitcoin assets, corresponding to an annual dividend expenditure of about $1.7 billion for its STRC preferred shares, which theoretically could cover about 32 years of dividend needs by selling BTC. STRC is a preferred stock rather than a debt instrument, so there is no traditional pressure for mandatory repayment. From a financial structure perspective, MSTR does not face "forced liquidation-style leverage risk" or short-term repayment crises.However, the related statements reflect that market concerns about its long-term cash flow and the volatility of crypto assets are rising. Currently, STRC has shown significant discount fluctuations, and its refinancing ability is limited. In addition, MSTR has recently relied more on methods such as issuing common stock to increase its BTC holdings (which may dilute the per-share Bitcoin amount when mNAV is below 1), and this strategy is difficult to sustain in the long term.Jiang Zhuoer indicated that even if the actual scale of MSTR selling BTC to pay dividends is relatively small compared to the entire market, its symbolic significance may be more important, potentially putting pressure on market confidence and causing investors to reassess the possibility of "long-term passive selling of coins." The market's understanding of this structure is not consistent, and this cognitive difference itself may become an important factor influencing expectations and sentiment.

Driven by the news of the peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, global risk appetite has significantly rebounded, with U.S. stock futures rising across the board and the technology growth sector performing actively. According to Gate market data, SanDisk (SNDK) reached a high of $2,075.72 in 24 hours, currently reported at $2,067.95, with a 24-hour increase of 3.74%; SpaceX (SPCX) reached a high of $169.59 in 24 hours, currently reported at $167.85, with a 24-hour increase of 1.21%. According to CoinGlass data, the contract open interest for Gate SNDK (SanDisk) reached $9.0399 million, and the contract open interest for Gate SPCX (SpaceX) reached $6.6192 million, both ranking among the industry's top.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 2 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.208%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market has begun to warm up, after being in negative premium for 24 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and an optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

According to Jinshi reports, as the Middle East war solidifies the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, traders' bullish sentiment towards the dollar has risen to its highest level in over a year. According to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of June 9, hedge funds, asset management companies, and other speculators held a total of $27.8 billion in bullish bets on the dollar, the highest level since February 2025. This change in positions indicates that market bullish sentiment towards this major global reserve currency continues to accumulate.

According to Jinshi reports, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn stated in a report that investors are closely watching the upcoming inflation data to assess the potential direction of future central bank interest rate decisions.She pointed out that market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year have risen significantly over the past week, so the inflation data could reinforce or challenge this repricing expectation. LSEG data shows that investors have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026.

According to Gate market data, the Nasdaq 100 index has turned positive, and market sentiment has warmed up.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the prosperity of the stock market is driven by a desire for profits, which outweighs concerns about economic turmoil and inflation risks. He pointed out that the current market sentiment is much more greedy than fearful, with ample funds available. At the same time, Solomon acknowledged that the risk of escalating inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, emphasizing the real existence of inflationary pressures.

Well-known Bitcoin market analyst PlanB predicts that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $61,000 is over 50%. He believes that the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $61,000 and even $53,000 both exceed 50%, suggesting that the market may still face further downward pressure in the future. Crypto KOL Qinjiaopike stated, "The automatic trend indicator alert shows that Bitcoin's 3-day line has entered a new downward trend, and a new round of decline in the latter half of the bear market has begun, with a bear market bottom target of $42,000-$44,000."The top profit leader before the Binance contract live trading, 0xPickleCati, posted on their personal channel, "Speak of the devil, the devil appears; in a bear market, don't try to guess the bottom, in a few months you might find there is no bottom."

According to Cointelegraph, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated in an interview that although institutional investors' participation in the cryptocurrency space is increasing, it is very important to pay attention to retail sentiment towards Bitcoin, as Bitcoin holdings are far from being concentrated. "Bitcoin is not monopolized like BlackRock or Fidelity; in fact, it is primarily purchased by numerous retail accounts."

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment stated that ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March 29. Typically, after a significant price drop, the market exhibits two typical sentiments: one is retail investors falling into FUD due to weak performance, and the other is the FOMO sentiment that views the drop as a "discount buying opportunity."Santiment pointed out that the latter is currently emerging in the market. As ETH breaks below a key psychological support level, a large number of retail investors are starting to "buy the dip." It believes that this usually indicates that the price of ETH may still have further room to decline, as retail sentiment is currently too optimistic, and historically, the general market tends to make incorrect judgments. Santiment stated that the truly better buying opportunities usually arise after market FOMO cools down and sentiment shifts to panic.

ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March this year. Over the past 7 days, ETH has cumulatively dropped nearly 8%, with a decline of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest (OI) has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching a historic high of 16.39 million ETH, with a nominal value of approximately $3.25 billion. Analysts believe that the continuous rise in OI against the backdrop of falling spot prices indicates that the market is experiencing more aggressive leveraged short-selling behavior.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that more and more investors are beginning to abandon ETH, "ETH does not generate cash flow, and in the context of rising U.S. Treasury yields, the attractiveness of staking yields is declining." Additionally, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $401 million this month, completely reversing the net inflow of $354 million in April. Market sentiment has also continued to deteriorate due to the departure of core members from the Ethereum Foundation.David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, previously stated that he has sold his ETH holdings, believing that the narrative of "ETH as currency" has been fully priced in. The Web3 research institution House of Chimera indicated that the market is questioning the advantages of the Ethereum ecosystem in DeFi, RWA, and tokenization, and whether it can truly reflect back to the ETH token itself.

Santiment released a weekly market summary stating that Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows on 9 out of the past 10 trading days, with the current Bitcoin price around $77,500; it views this phenomenon as a reflection of weakening retail confidence.Meanwhile, Ethereum market sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, but the number of non-zero addresses has reached 192.92 million, which is more than three times Bitcoin's approximately 59 million. Santiment also pointed out that the current ratio of bullish to bearish comments on Bitcoin has risen to 2.23, the highest level within 2026, and historically, such high sentiment often appears before short-term corrections.

CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to the bear market rebound phase in March 2022, with market demand still weak and sentiment indicators having fallen back into the "extremely pessimistic" range.The report pointed out that Bitcoin's recent rebound was blocked near the 200-day moving average at around $82,400, and then it fell back to around $76,000. CryptoQuant believes this trend is similar to that in March 2022: at that time, Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its low but also encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average and re-entered a downward trend.Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that during a bear market, the 200-day moving average is usually a key dividing line between "rebound markets" and "trend continuation." If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through this moving average, it may indicate that the bear market structure has not yet been broken.

Bitcoin weakened again after the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, briefly rising to about $77,678 before retreating, continuing the structural trend of "strong during Asian hours, weak during U.S. hours" observed this week. The market is focused on the upcoming Nvidia earnings report, which is seen by several institutions as one of the key macro volatility triggers for this quarter.As a result, pre-market sentiment in the U.S. stock market was cautious, with the S&P 500 dropping about 1.3% at one point before rebounding slightly, but overall risk appetite remains weak. In terms of on-chain and spot structure, the Coinbase Premium index has fallen to a multi-month low, indicating that buying interest in the U.S. market continues to be weak. This indicator has remained negative recently, reflecting insufficient spot demand in the U.S. region, even though BTC prices are still high, marginal buying has not increased correspondingly.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has once again fallen below the 21-week exponential moving average (21W EMA). Analysts point out that this level may turn from support to resistance, and if it cannot regain this level, it will increase the risk of short-term fluctuations and pullbacks. Overall, the market has entered a wait-and-see mode amid significant tech earnings and macro uncertainty.

According to Gate market data, the Nasdaq 100 Index has turned down, indicating a weakening market sentiment.

According to Jinshi News, S&P 500 futures have shown signs of turning upward, and market sentiment has improved.