usual

According to a report by the analysis firm Kaiko on Monday, the open interest, funding rates, and on-chain trading patterns in the perpetual contract market indicate that some traders may have positioned themselves ahead of the announcement of the Robinhood cryptocurrency listing. The report highlights the most obvious case of wallet address 0xa1E, which opened a long position in Lighter (LIT) on Hyperliquid at 11:05 AM on January 15, about an hour before Robinhood announced the listing of the token, and this wallet subsequently closed the position after the announcement.The same address also opened a short position in HOOD a few hours before Robinhood reported lower-than-expected first-quarter revenue on April 28. Several tokens, including ZEC, SNX, and NEAR, experienced abnormal spikes in open interest and funding rates, as well as price drift, before their listing announcements. Researcher Fraussen told Cointelegraph that traders who understand microstructure may have noticed public signals such as rising funding rates and increased trading volume and positioned themselves accordingly, but this type of positioning is statistically consistent and has repeatedly occurred across multiple events, reflecting privileged access to Robinhood's listing pipeline or a highly reliable front-running method based on public signals.

On-chain detective ZachXBT questioned Kraken's due diligence process for the listing of $M (Memecore) spot trading on July 3, 2025, stating that approximately 7.9 million $M had been withdrawn from Kraken to 18 newly created addresses, of which a total of about 11.7 million $M is currently held, valued at approximately $39.8 million at the current price.He also mentioned that a suspected Memecore team address received 200 million $M during the token generation event (TGE) and transferred 5.3 million $M to the Kraken deposit address on July 3, 2025.

On-chain detective ZachXBT questioned Kraken's review process for the listing of Memecore (M) spot trading and pointed out that there were anomalies in the related on-chain fund flows.He stated that approximately $7.9 million flowed out of Kraken to 18 newly created addresses, which currently hold a total of about 11.7 million M (currently valued at approximately $39.8 million). At the same time, he claimed that a suspected team address had previously deposited about 5.3 million M into Kraken, raising market concerns about token distribution and trading behavior.

The official announcement from the stablecoin platform Reserve on Ethereum states that they are closely monitoring the attack on the Kelp DAO's LayerZero bridge. Currently, it is assessed that Reserve DTF holders will be almost unaffected. If rsETH on the mainnet is significantly devalued (potentially requiring a 15.5-18.5% depreciation), Aave may incur bad debts, which could in turn affect the USDC collateral in Aave V3.RSR stakers in the Reserve protocol USD3 and eUSD may provide protection as "first loss capital," but the impact is minimal, and the RSR over-collateralization is sufficient to cover it.ETH+ and bsdETH contain no rsETH collateral, posing zero risk. As a precaution, Reserve has temporarily suspended the minting, rebalancing, and RSR unbonding of eUSD and USD3. The redemption function remains open as normal, and if users require RSR over-collateralization protection, it is recommended to continue holding.

Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC: "I believe the market has absorbed 90% to 95% of the selling pressure, and the selling process may have ended. We can now start to rebuild the bottom. We must recognize that in a war environment, the stock market often hits bottom early. We have studied every war since 1900, and the stock market tends to bottom out within the first 10% of the war process. So, if this follows the same pattern, we are currently in the early stages of that process.At this stage, any bad news can trigger people to de-risk. But you also know that this is why positions are worth paying attention to, because at some point, when people become overly neutral, even if the situation is not that bad, the market could see a V-shaped rebound."Tom Lee also added on social media that even if the "bottom" has not yet been reached, he believes the U.S. economy can withstand $100, or even $120, oil.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. C has dropped by 17.1% in the last 24 hours, while USUAL and STO have decreased by 10.92% and 11.43%, respectively.In addition, DEXE, SANTOS, and FET have also shown a "high and then low" state, with declines of 5.2%, 7.81%, and 8.72%, respectively. CETUS has recently seen a small drop over 2 hours, with a decline of 11.7%. NEAR has reached a new low for the week, with a drop of 6.54%. SXP has hit a new low for today, with a decline of 16.67%.

According to market news, Sun Yuchen withdrew 621,071 XVS from Binance at an average price of $12.21 two years ago, worth $7.58 million. After holding for more than two years, this address has transferred all tokens to a new address for the first time, and the recipient address is currently unknown.During the holding period, the price of XVS dropped nearly 75%, and its current value is only about $1.95 million.

Venus Protocol posted on platform X that there is unusual activity in the THE liquidity pool and is actively investigating. Currently, it seems that only the THE and CAKE markets are affected.

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment posted on social media, "On-chain data shows that over the past year, whenever there were three significant spikes in active addresses for USDT on the BNB Chain, the price of BTC rebounded. This is because USDT is the primary currency for most trading platforms, and the BNB Chain handles a large volume of daily transfer activities. When funds frequently flow between wallets and trading platforms, the number of active addresses surges. More active addresses mean more 'capital waiting to be traded,' especially on Binance. When this liquidity shifts from stablecoins to Bitcoin, buying pressure increases, and the price often rebounds."

YZi Labs officially issued a warning on social media stating that it has detected unusual activity on the old account @BinanceLabs. To ensure user safety, please unfollow the old account and avoid interacting with any posts, links, or direct messages from that account.

A Bank of America (BofA) survey in February showed that investors' bearish positions on the dollar have fallen to the lowest level since 2012, with dollar allocations at a historically low level.Traditionally, a weaker dollar is usually favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, but the report noted that since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the dollar index, with a 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.6 at one point. Analysts believe that if this correlation continues, further declines in the dollar may not be beneficial for Bitcoin and could instead put pressure on it; conversely, if the dollar rebounds due to short covering, Bitcoin may rise accordingly, and market volatility could significantly increase.

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.

Arthur Hayes tweeted, "Maybe I should pay attention to the 'black swan' event today, after all, the movement of BTC is too unusual."

Analyst Ali Charts posted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its first interest rate meeting in 2026, with the market's expectation for a rate cut at only 2.8%, indicating that the likelihood of recent policy easing is low.Looking back at the data from 2025, after eight FOMC meetings, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback in seven of those meetings, with only one brief increase; after the last meeting, Bitcoin dropped by 9%. Analysis indicates that FOMC meeting weeks are typically accompanied by high volatility and downside risk for Bitcoin, even if the market remains optimistic due to expectations of a rate cut before the meeting, the reactions post-announcement are mostly bearish. Investors need to manage their positions cautiously.

CoinGecko co-founder responds to rumors of "considering selling CoinGecko at a valuation of about $500 million." Having operated CoinGecko for nearly 12 years, like any growing and profitable company, we regularly evaluate strategic opportunities to strengthen the business and accelerate our mission.CoinGecko is currently in a strong position—business growth, strong profitability, and increasing institutional demand. CoinGecko's business operations continue as usual, with no changes to our working methods or data delivery.

CryptoQuant institutional Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. released the latest analysis stating that Bitcoin has fallen 19.7% (approximately $21,500) over the past three months, with a year-to-date decline of 10.5% (approximately $10,400), showing a significant correction trend.Although the price has stabilized in the short term (up 1.5% weekly, down 0.5% monthly), the monthly RSI indicator shows a weakening market momentum, currently at 56.5, falling below the 12-month average (67.3) for the first time, and just 2 points away from the 4-year average (58.7). According to historical data, an RSI falling below the 4-year average typically indicates that the market may enter a deeper bear market phase.Adler pointed out that the next 1-2 months are crucial; if the RSI can maintain between 55-58, Bitcoin may have a chance to recover; if it continues to fall below 55, it may enter a deeper downward phase. Investors need to closely monitor the subsequent performance of the RSI to determine whether the market is in a correction cycle or shifting towards a deeper downtrend.

According to analyst Murphy, the Bitcoin Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP) fell below the 65% "threshold line" between November 22 and 23, indicating a dangerous market sentiment. Currently, the PSIP has rebounded to 67.6%, but it remains in the critical range of 65%-70%, which could either lead to a recovery of confidence or trigger panic if it moves downward.Historical data shows that when the PSIP is below 50%, it typically indicates a bear market bottom. Previously, it was predicted that BTC would need to drop below $59,000 to reach that level, but the latest estimate has been adjusted to below $62,000. Analysts believe that BTC below $62,000 may present a high-value investment opportunity, but patience is still required to wait for market changes.

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute founder wishful_cynic posted on social media regarding community speculation about "Wintermute collapsing in this downturn": "I'm sorry to disappoint you, but Wintermute is perfectly fine, everything is as usual."

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, unusual betting on Polymarket has prompted Norwegian officials to investigate a possible leak of information regarding the Nobel Peace Prize results.According to information from the Polymarket website, the betting odds for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado have surged.Reports indicate that three accounts on Polymarket primarily bet on Maria Corina Machado, collectively profiting around $90,000.