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Bitfinex: Bitcoin needs to wait for CPI to catalyze a return to $84,500, with short-term focus on $81,300 support

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to multiple adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market interest rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may fluctuate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term.If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the year-to-date opening level of $87,722; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflow, it may further dip to around $77,400, the true market average level.

Yilihua analyzes the four major reasons for the winter in the primary cryptocurrency market and calls on project builders and leading CEXs to take joint action to reverse the downturn

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua published an article discussing the current state of the cryptocurrency primary market. He stated that the main reasons for the decline of the cryptocurrency primary market are: "First, the narrative has collapsed; from white papers to institutional endorsements to TVL manipulation, the basic market is no longer buying in. Second, there is a supply imbalance; now there are tens of thousands of projects, and it is extremely difficult for excellent projects to emerge. Third, the 1 plus 3 unlocking mechanism essentially targets VCs, allowing projects, market makers, and exchanges to run first. Fourth, the cost of listing coins; now primary projects require high valuations and large financing mainly because of several leading centralized exchanges going live, with an average cost needing tens of millions of dollars."Yi Lihua believes that industry leaders need to truly focus on building, such as improving the coin listing selection method on Binance. Under the current model, even if Vitalik Buterin's ETH were to come today, it would not be able to list on Binance. Additionally, the 1 plus 3 unlocking mechanism should be completely abolished; VCs bear the greatest risk and should not be burdened with the worst unlocking terms, as the success or failure of a project is fundamentally not determined by VCs.Finally, cryptocurrency projects need to return to real revenue and buybacks. The sustained prosperity of the U.S. stock market over the years is primarily due to performance growth and the encouragement of shareholder returns. This is what industry leaders should be doing, allowing secondary market investors to truly find quality projects.
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