bitfinex

The cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex posted on X: Since mid-September, Bitcoin has been operating in the upper half of the Keltner Channel on Bitfinex's daily chart.Bitfinex stated that about two weeks ago, Bitcoin fell below the flattening middle line. If the price returns to the upper half of the channel and the middle line turns upward again, it may indicate a recovery of bullish momentum.

The cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex stated on X that even though the ETF is in a sell state, new BTC buyers have still accumulated about 570,000 BTC since the end of July.Bitfinex indicated that the average cost for these buyers is approximately $75,000, and this cost has been maintained during each pullback since August.

The cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex stated that among the approximately 60,000 BTC accumulated by Bitcoin whales, most were purchased since late August, with buying prices ranging from about $80,000 to $86,000.Bitfinex noted that this price range is roughly equivalent to Bitcoin's current price. The platform also mentioned that if these whales continue to hold the aforementioned Bitcoin during this round of correction, the price just above $80,000 will receive support.

Bitfinex stated that the average holding cost for long-term Bitcoin holders is approximately $49,300, with a current unrealized profit of about 64%; the average cost for recent buyers is around $74,400, with a current unrealized profit of only about 9%.Bitfinex pointed out that if the BTC price continues to decline, recent buyers may face greater selling pressure first. In contrast, long-term holders have a thicker buffer of unrealized profit.

According to K33 Research, the U.S. government transferred approximately 17,733 BTC to Coinbase Prime this week, including 12,267 BTC related to the Bitfinex hacking incident. After the transfer, the government's marked holdings decreased from 324,527 BTC to 306,795 BTC. If we include unmarked suspected government wallets, the total amount of BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime is about 21,500 BTC.Analysis suggests that this transfer is likely a custody operation rather than a sale—Coinbase Prime has been the custodian for the U.S. Marshals Service since 2024. The cryptocurrencies related to Bitfinex are still in the claims process, and the Department of Justice has requested that victims be compensated in BTC; the ban on the strategic Bitcoin reserve only covers cryptocurrencies that have been fully confiscated. Additionally, about 1,200 BTC from FTX and HashFlare were transferred simultaneously, which may be paid to victims in cash through compensation channels.It is noteworthy that approximately 15,000 BTC related to Bitfinex claims were transferred within two days, which may indicate that the distribution plan or related rulings are progressing.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to multiple adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market interest rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may fluctuate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term.If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the year-to-date opening level of $87,722; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflow, it may further dip to around $77,400, the true market average level.

Bitfinex stated that Bitcoin typically transfers to trading platforms before being sold, but during the drop of BTC from $87,000, there was almost no behavior of Bitcoin held for 6 months or more.Data shows that nearly all Bitcoin flowing into trading platforms recently has only been transferred in the past week. Bitfinex pointed out that true market capitulation usually requires long-term holders to start transferring and selling their chips, but there are currently no signs of this.

According to Whale Alert monitoring, at 21:16 Beijing time, 2000 BTC (worth approximately 166 million USD) was transferred from the anonymous address 3KZby...o22 to Bitfinex.On-chain data shows that the address held approximately 3589 BTC before the transfer, and currently still has about 1589 BTC remaining.

According to Bitcoin News monitoring, a wallet marked as belonging to the United States transferred 833.6 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address, worth 71.6 million dollars. Arkham data shows that 568.7 BTC is related to seized assets from HashFlare, while 264.9 BTC is related to funds from the Bitfinex hack.Transferring to the Prime deposit address does not indicate a confirmed sale; Coinbase also provides custody services for cryptocurrencies held by the government, and a similar transfer of 288 million dollars has occurred.

According to Ember Monitoring, a whale/institution that has held ETH for 3 years continued to take profits 9 hours ago by transferring 30,825 ETH ($83.03 million). Over the course of a week, a total of 112,053 ETH ($300 million) was transferred to Bitfinex, realizing a profit of $72.83 million.This whale/institution withdrew 130,592 ETH ($264 million) from Bitfinex in 2023 at an average price of $2,026.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, another 4 addresses that have been inactive for over 2 years deposited 48,000 ETH into Bitfinex, worth 131 million dollars.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, two addresses suspected to belong to the same whale entity withdrew 33,180.48 ETH from Bitfinex at an average price of $2,002.75 in November 2023, with peak unrealized profits reaching $89.145 million, and they still hold during this period.5 hours ago, the two addresses deposited all ETH back into the exchange, with a deposit price of $2,620; if sold, they are expected to profit $20.481 million.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a certain whale/institution that has held ETH for 3 years has taken partial profits, accumulating a profit of 66.45 million dollars, with a return rate of 29%. Three years ago, this whale/institution withdrew and hoarded 112,100 ETH from Bitfinex, which was worth 227 million dollars at that time, with the ETH price around 2030 dollars.As ETH broke through 2600 dollars, it transferred 21,200 ETH from one of its addresses to Bitfinex 2 hours ago, worth 55.93 million dollars.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report shows that Bitcoin has recently maintained a range of about 5.5% for over 24 trading days, with a cost basis of approximately 840,000 BTC within this range. As profit-taking has noticeably slowed, the seller risk premium has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels in the past year, but insufficient buying pressure still limits a breakout.Meanwhile, leverage has accumulated at the upper and lower bounds of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated around $82,000, while there are large-scale long positions in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could amplify price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.Bitfinex further pointed out in the report that rising energy costs, increasing real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macro environment more complex. Whether BTC can break through the current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trends in real yields and energy prices.

Bitfinex Alpha report shows that Bitcoin has been consolidating in the range of $77,100 to $81,300 over the past 20 trading days, with the current price close to the key support level at the lower end of the range. If it breaks above $81,300, the volume vacuum above may drive the price quickly up to $86,500. The options market has shifted protection to contracts expiring on September 18 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.The report also points out that while Bitcoin's volatility has decreased, altcoins are performing actively, with all 29 major cryptocurrencies rising last week, Polkadot up 43%, and Zcash up 42%. The open interest in altcoin perpetual contracts has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time this week, a situation that historically often accompanies market correction risks.

The cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex posted on X that the Bitcoin miner position index is currently -1.2, well below its annual average.Miners are holding supply, even though the breakthrough in August briefly pushed it up to 2.8. An index above 2 means that miners are selling again, and current selling activity is relatively sluggish.

Bitfinex Securities is a tokenized investment platform under the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, which has launched 5 types of tokenized notes, providing economic exposure to Bitcoin reserve companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, H100 Group, and Capital B for eligible investors. The platform has also launched the Strategy floating rate perpetual preferred stock STRC.The aforementioned notes are issued through the Luxembourg ORO (II) Fund, managed by SICOS Securities, with the underlying securities held in custody by regulated financial institutions, but do not grant investors direct ownership of shares in the corresponding companies. Products can be invested in fractions starting from about $1 and support trading in USD, USDT, and Bitcoin, available only to eligible non-U.S. investors. Bitfinex Securities stated that this is the first time related products have been traded in the secondary market on a regulated tokenized securities exchange. After completing a $50 million tokenized financing for the metal company Alkemya in August this year, the platform has listed assets exceeding $500 million.

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.