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first_img White Whale Labs: The advantages of Solana meme coins are concentrated in cluster wallets

White Whale Labs released a study titled "The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino," stating that since late August, it has recorded all Pump.fun and Stonk new coin transactions on Solana, covering over 1 million liquidity pools and 7.7 million wallets with 384 million exchanges, with data exceeding 56 GB and 820 million rows. This dataset adds 18 to 25 million transactions daily, with up to about 1 million wallets and over 60,000 newly issued projects.The study claims that among the coins that have had real transactions, about one-tenth will double within the following 24 hours. Among 22.8 million first purchases within two weeks, 17% doubled before a 40% drop; using a doubling take-profit and a 40% drop stop-loss while accounting for costs, the average loss per transaction is about 19%. Clusters consisting of 450 to 2000 wallets often concentrate their purchases within one to two minutes after going live, with the doubling ratio for related coins being 28% to 46%, and their entry doubling before a 40% drop is 50% to 60%, higher than the 17% of other wallets. The daily count of groups tracked is between 9 and 33.Copy trading tests show that entering two minutes behind large clusters results in a single coin loss of 41% for 93 coins, with a median drop of 95%; tracking groups with positive records still shows a single coin loss of 11%, and backtesting a single wallet shows a single transaction loss of 20%. A few tight-knit groups made about 10% profit on 16 coins. Neural networks increased the doubling ratio from about 10% to 26%, but out of 771 selections over 8 days, daily results were negative, with an average loss of about 11%, a median drop of 45%, and 55% triggering stop-loss within 24 hours. White Whale Labs stated that after spending thousands of dollars on API, VPS, and model costs, no monetizable advantage was found, and they believe that meme coin trading is almost entirely driven by cluster wallets.

Holding 28,600 BTC, worth 1.8 billion USD, the wallet cluster is suspected to be linked to the Zhimin Qian money laundering case

According to on-chain detective Specter, it has discovered a cluster of wallets holding 28,600 BTC, worth approximately $1.8 billion, suspected to be related to wallets previously attributed to the money laundering case of Zhimin Qian.A few weeks ago, a Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant since 2017 transferred 1,020 BTC, worth about $60 million, and began distributing funds to multiple addresses in a manner consistent with money laundering activities. After tracking these transactions, Specter found that the related wallet cluster was connected to publicly associated addresses investigated in the UK concerning Zhimin Qian. From 2014 to 2017, Zhimin Qian organized large-scale investment fraud in China, affecting over 128,000 victims. UK authorities later traced a significant amount of criminal proceeds flowing into Bitcoin, with the Met Police ultimately seizing 60,000 BTC, marking the largest cryptocurrency seizure in UK history at that time.In July 2021, UK authorities transferred the seized BTC, creating identifiable on-chain associations. Following the recent transfer of 1,020 BTC, Specter identified additional wallets, which currently hold a total of 28,600 BTC, worth approximately $1.8 billion. These wallets have largely been dormant since June 2021. Based on on-chain evidence, it remains unclear whether these wallets are still controlled by the same actor, other custodians, or have been identified by law enforcement.

Chainalysis plans to launch an on-chain tracking standard system, proposing an "address clustering ontology" to unify blockchain forensic methods

According to CoinDesk, blockchain analysis company Chainalysis has released a new methodological proposal aimed at establishing a unified on-chain fund tracking standard framework for law enforcement agencies and investigators, to identify address clusters and determine their possible control relationships.The proposal defines the on-chain analysis structure in the form of "ontology," focusing on systematically breaking down the currently unstandardized concept of "cluster" in the industry into wallet segments and functional roles, and describing on-chain relationships through a two-layer structure: the first layer defines the transaction graph structure, and the second layer assesses inference confidence.Chainalysis stated that the framework aims to enhance the interpretability and legal applicability of on-chain forensic methods, and is designed and validated based on its practical experience in relevant cases within the U.S. Department of Justice, including the analytical application in the mixing service Bitcoin Fog case.The company's Chief Scientist Jacob Illum pointed out that the goal of the proposal is to answer "on what evidence basis can these addresses be considered to belong to the same entity," while emphasizing that on-chain analysis itself cannot directly identify the ultimate user identity and still requires legal investigative methods combined with centralized entities such as exchanges.Chainalysis indicated that the standard proposal is currently open for discussion within the industry, hoping to promote the formation of more unified technical specifications for on-chain analysis methods in the fields of law enforcement and compliance.
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