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HYPE $61.47 -9.69%
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cp

"New Stock God" Serenity: Sivers may become a key bottleneck and "choke point" in the CPO industry

The "New Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to enter large-scale deployment in the second half of 2027, Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) may play both a bottleneck and a key node role in the industry.It pointed out that there are signs of tight supply for Continuous Wave (CW) lasers. Affected by previous orders from NVIDIA, the capacities of companies such as Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, and Win Semi are highly saturated. Meanwhile, Sivers, which adopts a fab-lite model, has effectively secured a significant amount of CW laser supply by locking in capacity with foundries like Win Semi in advance.The analysis believes that multiple CPO routes, including ASIC projects from Ayar Labs, Jabil, Marvell Celestial, and other large-scale cloud providers, are highly dependent on Sivers' laser solutions, lacking mature alternative sources in the short term, which positions it as a structural "bottleneck" in the entire ecosystem.Additionally, Sivers is the default reference laser design solution for GlobalFoundries, with relevant ecosystem participants including AMD and several CPO chip suppliers. Aside from vertically integrated companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, most ASIC and commercial CPO projects are likely to revolve around Sivers.Serenity expects that as the CPO market size grows from nearly zero to between $81 billion and $91 billion in about a year and a half, Sivers is likely to replicate Lumentum's growth path and may grow into a company with a market value of around $75 billion in the coming years. However, the above views only represent the personal judgment of market analysts.

QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

Analysis: The cryptocurrency market is cautious ahead of the U.S. April CPI release, with XRP and SOL once again facing key resistance levels

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.
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