Gemini's Top Five Predictions for the Year: The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin Has Ended, Digital Asset Custodians Will Merge to Survive
Gemini's Director of Institutional Business, Patrick Liou, released five predictions for 2026.The 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETFs and institutional adoption have made the market more mature, with volatility dropping from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%.Crypto will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to break through.The crypto prediction market will expand significantly, with Polymarket's growth attracting players like Coinbase.Digital asset reserve companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy's massive losses in Q4 last year and a 60% drop in MSTR's stock price show the pressure.At least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin; Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have publicly discussed BTC as a reserve asset. Liou believes that 2026 will be driven by institutions, policies, and sovereign capital, rather than speculative cycles.