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JPMorgan: Semiconductors are nearing oversold levels, recommend gradual positioning in the summer

According to ChaoXiang Research, Morgan Stanley's stock strategy report on July 20 pointed out that AI-related stocks have faced fierce selling in recent weeks, with the South Korean stock market dropping 25% from its peak, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 20%. Individual stocks like Samsung and Micron have seen declines between 20% and 50%. The report believes that the core driving force behind this round of decline is technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between relative prices and relative earnings trends in semiconductors continues to widen, but the supply-demand tight balance for DRAM and NAND is expected to last until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its performance guidance, indicating that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is nearing the oversold zone, and the accumulated momentum gains for the year have basically been retraced.Morgan Stanley believes that once the oversold signal is confirmed, a rebound window will open, and it suggests that investors gradually position themselves in semiconductors during the summer. The proportion of second-quarter earnings reports exceeding expectations reached 97%, and companies in the S&P 500 that reported better-than-expected earnings outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of the report. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley has raised its equity allocation from 60% to 65%, increased its Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%, and is overweight in sectors such as semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automotive, insurance, and banking, while underweighting software, business services, and media in the "AI erosion group." Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buying on dips" strategy since the end of March remains effective.

The decentralized lending protocol Goldfinch, supported by a16z, announced that it will gradually shut down

According to Cryptopolitan, the decentralized lending protocol Goldfinch, supported by a16z, announced it will gradually shut down. Last Friday, an anonymous investor, Edward Morra, publicly accused the protocol of mismanagement, leading to over $50 million in user fund losses, stating that borrower defaults and failed loan restructurings made it nearly impossible for depositors to recover their funds. Just a day after the post was published, the project announced it would enter a gradual shutdown phase.The protocol's native token GFI fell from a peak of $32.94 in January 2022 to below $0.07, a decline of 99.8%, with its market capitalization dropping from over $390 million to less than $6 million. Goldfinch was founded in 2021 by former Coinbase employees, aiming to connect crypto capital with credit enterprises overlooked by traditional banks, with a16z leading its $25 million financing in January 2022. Problems began to emerge months after the funding: the Kenyan motorcycle financing company Tugende Kenya defaulted, two underlying positions in the $2 billion loan from the U.S. credit fund Stratos nearly went to zero, and the Singapore borrower Lend East could only repay 58% of the principal. As the loan portfolio deteriorated, the protocol turned to institutional credit funds but ultimately could not turn the situation around.
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