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Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated in a live broadcast yesterday that the overall tone of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes is hawkish. Although the interest rate was kept unchanged at this meeting, several officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to decline to the 2% target, further tightening of policy or even another rate hike remains a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade based on interest rate cut expectations in the short term, but should reassess the impact of "high rates lasting longer" on the US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and US stock valuations.Lewis Huang pointed out that the subsequent market direction will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rise and the job market remains resilient, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, while gold and high-valuation assets like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if inflation significantly cools and employment and consumption weaken simultaneously, the market will raise expectations for Federal Reserve easing, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to receive support. He suggested that CFD traders focus on the correlation between the US two-year Treasury yield, the US dollar index, and gold, waiting for price breakthroughs and pullback confirmations after major data releases, avoiding chasing the initial wave of volatility, while strictly controlling leverage and stop-loss risks.

Goldman Sachs stated that as U.S. inflation is cooling, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes remain overly aggressive. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that weak retail sales data, disappointing employment data, and continuously slowing inflation data make the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the Fed's September meeting extremely low.The market has pushed back expectations for the next 25 basis point rate hike to January of next year.

Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick Timiraos stated that the July inflation report was largely in line with market expectations, easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.Wall Street is focused on CPI data, with some officials believing it is necessary to maintain higher interest rates, arguing that the current level of rates is restrictive and that the high inflation is due to external shocks rather than loose monetary policy.

According to Gate's latest weekly report, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but hawkish expectations have risen. The high interest rate environment combined with the deleveraging effects of derivatives has put overall pressure on the crypto market, with BTC and ETH dropping approximately 2.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks continued to recover last week. In terms of capital flow, BTC spot ETFs have turned to net outflows, while ETH spot ETFs still maintain a slight net inflow, showing some resilience in institutional capital allocation.On-chain, PancakeSwap's weekly trading volume surpassed Uniswap, and the Robinhood Chain, RWA, and Meme ecosystems remain active. In the derivatives market, BTC open interest (OI) rose and then fell, with funding rates remaining positive, and DVOL continuing to decline, while the market overall still maintains high-level fluctuations.In response to the evolving macro policies, institutional capital flows, and on-chain ecosystems, Gate is continuously building a multi-asset trading system covering digital assets, stocks, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities. Relying on institutional-level trading, liquidity, custody, lending, asset management, and API services, it provides professional investors with a one-stop institutional solution.At the same time, Gate is continuously improving its global institutional ecosystem layout, strengthening trading execution efficiency, cross-market liquidity, and risk management capabilities, helping institutional clients respond more efficiently to market fluctuations and seize global asset allocation and structural trading opportunities.

According to Jinshi, three Federal Reserve officials support interest rate hikes, and internal hawkish pressure is increasing.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is considering reducing the frequency of policy meetings, and Musalem stated that the bond sell-off is raising warnings about the Federal Reserve's credibility.Federal Reserve's Barkin pointed out that whether interest rates are high enough remains an "open question."

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

According to Jinshi reports, the Japan Self-Defense Forces recently conducted their first test launch of the American "Tomahawk" cruise missile in the Pacific.

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.

The Hawkins County Commissioners in Tennessee, USA, passed a ban with 12 votes in favor and 0 votes against, prohibiting the establishment, construction, installation, expansion, and operation of cryptocurrency mining facilities and data centers in the county's unincorporated areas.The commission had previously passed a similar ban in September 2025 to prevent the digital asset company ExoticRidge from conducting mining operations locally, and in January confirmed its related authority through a resolution. ExoticRidge proposed a settlement with Hawkins County officials in January, allowing the company to build and operate facilities under noise restrictions. The proposed terms require that the A-weighted decibel noise at the property boundary must not exceed 80 decibels for more than 30 minutes within any 4-hour period.A law signed in Tennessee in April has stipulated that, starting July 1, the use and installation of cryptocurrency ATMs and kiosks will be illegal, with the restrictions aimed at incidents of residents transferring money to scammers using the devices.

According to Jinshi reports, institutions are conducting a forward-looking analysis of the voting situation at the Federal Reserve meeting. TD Securities and JPMorgan expect two hawkish dissenting votes, mainly from Harker and Logan. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Citibank believe that one or two officials may dissent in support of a rate hike.UBS predicts that if the interest rate remains unchanged, there will likely be 8 to 10 votes in favor. Prediction markets indicate that the probability of Harker and Logan casting dissenting votes is both 58%.

According to Jinshi reports, Paul Zangieri, a senior economist at Prudential Investment, is closely monitoring the communication wording of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the FOMC will "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone," as ongoing inflation, rising oil prices, and internal disagreements within the FOMC open the door for further tightening of policies later this year.

Anthropic announced that the Claude Mythos Preview model has made breakthroughs in cryptographic research, discovering improved attack methods against the post-quantum digital signature candidate HAWK. HAWK is a post-quantum signature candidate solicited by NIST to combat quantum computer attacks, which has already passed two rounds of expert review. However, Claude reduced the effective key strength of HAWK-256 from 2^64 to 2^38 in just 60 hours, significantly lowering the theoretical cost of cracking. HAWK has not yet been deployed in practice, and this attack currently does not affect any production systems.Claude also discovered an improved attack against 7-round AES, achieving a speed increase of 200 to 800 times. During the research process, Claude independently completed literature reviews, mathematical reasoning, and experimental validation with limited guidance from cryptographers. The HAWK attack took about 60 hours and had an API cost of approximately $100,000; the AES attack was completed independently by Claude, which generated about 1 billion tokens before proposing core innovative ideas. Anthropic researchers then spent hundreds of hours validating the results. Anthropic stated that AI models can now help identify significant flaws in cryptographic algorithms, and the cryptography community may face bottlenecks similar to those in the software vulnerability field—AI-generated research results far exceed human verification capabilities. Anthropic has collaborated with academic institutions to launch the CryptanalysisBench benchmark and coordinated disclosures with NIST authors and government partners. The research team has achieved preliminary results on algorithms such as LEA and Serpent-128. Anthropic warns that as AI capabilities improve, actual attacks against deployed systems may be discovered in the future, necessitating the establishment of response mechanisms in advance.

According to Jinshi reports, Captain Hawkins, a spokesperson for the U.S. Central Command, stated that in the past hour, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired on merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, U.S. military aircraft have successfully shot down an Iranian cruise missile and a one-way attack drone.