kalshi

Kalshi is planning to launch a futures market linked to U.S. inflation for large global banks and hedge funds, with exchange-traded futures contracts expected to be launched in December, tracking the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core inflation metrics.The company has hired former Barclays trader Michael Ashton to design the contracts, making it the only futures product in the market directly linked to the CPI.

According to Bloomberg, the prediction market platform Kalshi plans to launch exchange-traded futures contracts tracking the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI in December. They are promoting related products to major banks and hedge funds and have hired former Barclays trader Michael Ashton, known as "Mr. Inflation," to design the contracts and expand institutional clients.If launched, this would become a unique futures product directly tracking the CPI, helping institutional investors hedge against inflation and the risks of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates, and allowing Kalshi to further enter the traditional derivatives market dominated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Kalshi has confirmed that it is developing CPI futures but has not disclosed specific launch details.

The cryptocurrency wallet Phantom is opening the Kalshi prediction market to users in the United States, allowing users to trade event contracts directly within the Phantom app. This feature will begin rolling out on October 23 and will gradually expand coverage over the coming weeks. Users must first complete Kalshi's KYC.Transactions will be conducted using the CASH stablecoin in the Phantom Cash account, and funds will be converted to fiat currency for settlement after being transferred to Kalshi. Withdrawals and profits will return to Phantom Cash. Phantom currently shows a fee of $0.02 per contract, with a small additional fee for network transfer.Due to local regulatory controversies, Phantom will restrict market categories in certain states: Michigan temporarily blocks sports markets; Nevada restricts sports, elections, politics, and entertainment markets; Washington state has broader restrictions, including categories such as culture, technology, and geopolitics. Phantom's General Counsel Kevin Jacobs stated that the company believes the CFTC's jurisdiction over relevant products is clear and will continue to comply with existing restrictions in various states.

Research institution Tiger Research researcher Ryan Yoon released the final report of the prediction market series, discussing whether prediction markets have practical utility. The report states that participants bear the judgment results with funds, and prices are updated in real-time with new information, forming probability distributions comparable to traditional polls, expert surveys, and economic forecasts; prediction markets have expanded from sports and election predictions to macroeconomic and geopolitical data infrastructure.The report lists that Google Finance, CNBC, CNN, and The Wall Street Journal have displayed prediction market probabilities, and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, along with the electronic bond trading platform Tradeweb, distributes relevant data to institutional clients. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Board describes the prediction market Kalshi as a high-frequency, continuously updated benchmark with rich information distribution. The paper states that Kalshi's median and mode predictions for the federal funds rate recorded perfectly the day before the FOMC meeting and significantly outperformed federal funds futures during that period; compared to Bloomberg consensus, it is more accurate for overall CPI and statistically similar for core CPI and unemployment rate.The report also cites research from the Iowa Electronic Markets: in five U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, and in a comparison of 964 polls, it was more accurate in 74% of cases; the average voting share error one week before the election was 1.5 percentage points, lower than Gallup's final poll of 2.1 percentage points. The report suggests that the platform needs to deepen liquidity to resist manipulation, communicate with regulatory agencies, and position itself as a monitoring tool while maintaining open transparency and data supported by independent research.

According to Bloomberg, the Commodity Markets Council, representing derivatives exchanges such as the CME Group and commodity traders, has informed the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that perpetual futures pose a significant risk to market integrity and urged regulators not to approve the perpetual oil futures contract proposed by the prediction market platform Kalshi.The organization also called on the CFTC to close regulatory loopholes to prevent retail investors from accessing offshore trading platforms.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has prohibited all Pentagon personnel from using non-public information to place bets on upcoming military operations, involving prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In a memo sent to senior Pentagon officials and defense agencies on Tuesday, he stated that all Department of Defense personnel are prohibited from using non-public information for financial transactions, with the relevant restrictions covering both classified and unclassified information.Austin wrote in the memo that adversaries will observe movements in these markets, and the safety of U.S. military personnel often depends on the enemy not knowing what is about to happen. He also pointed out that, aside from operational security, financial betting can distort judgment: a logistics personnel betting on the date of an operation will be concerned about that date, and an analyst holding a position on the outcome will also be concerned about that outcome.Before this directive was issued, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April for allegedly profiting over $400,000 on Polymarket by using classified information regarding the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors claimed he participated in the planning and execution of the operation and used advance knowledge to bet on the outcome of Maduro's ousting; he pleaded not guilty to all charges. In February, Israeli authorities also arrested and charged a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to bet on events related to Israeli strikes against Iran on Polymarket.

According to Bloomberg, the prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a new arrangement with the cryptocurrency custody institution BitGo, which will allow certain clients to borrow against their custodied cryptocurrency assets and use the loan funds as margin for leveraged perpetual futures trading on the Kalshi exchange.This arrangement is aimed at clients of Kalshi Prime, a futures brokerage registered in the United States under Kalshi, and employs a tri-party collateral management structure. Loans are provided by its affiliated lending company Kalshi Katalyst, with the collateral assets held at BitGo Bank & Trust. Eligible collateral assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins deemed compliant with the GENIUS Act, with plans to integrate additional custody institutions in the future.Kalshi Prime CEO Jeff Bandman stated that this arrangement aims to allow clients to participate in trading without having to exit their cryptocurrency holdings, potentially attracting crypto-native trading firms and whales holding large amounts of digital assets.

According to Bloomberg, the prediction market platform Kalshi has reached a new agreement with the cryptocurrency custody institution BitGo, which will allow certain clients to borrow against their custody-held cryptocurrency assets and use the loan funds as margin for leveraged perpetual futures trading on the Kalshi exchange.This arrangement is aimed at clients of Kalshi's U.S.-registered futures commission merchant Kalshi Prime and employs a tri-party collateral management structure. Loans are provided by its affiliated lending company Kalshi Katalyst, with the collateral assets held at BitGo Bank & Trust. Eligible collateral assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins deemed compliant with the GENIUS Act, with plans to integrate additional custodians in the future.Kalshi Prime CEO Jeff Bandman stated that this arrangement is designed to allow clients to participate in trading without having to exit their cryptocurrency holdings, potentially attracting crypto-native trading firms and whales holding large amounts of digital assets.

According to The Block, the prediction market exchange under Crypto.com filed a lawsuit against Missouri officials in federal court on October 16, along with Novig, seeking to prohibit the state from enforcing sports betting laws on its sports event contracts. Previously, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway issued cease-and-desist orders to six companies from September 16 to 17, requiring them to stop offering sports event contracts to local users within 30 days or obtain a license from the Missouri Gaming Commission and pay a 10% betting tax.The exchange of Crypto.com, North American Derivatives Exchange, sued in the Western District Federal Court of Missouri, claiming that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and takes precedence over state gambling laws. The lawsuit also stated that the Attorney General's letter was mistakenly sent to Foris DAX, Inc., and that the state constitution only allows for the issuance of two mobile sports betting licenses, with no licenses currently available.Novig, through its exchange operator Ludlow Exchange LLC, filed a lawsuit in the Eastern District Court, requesting a preliminary and permanent injunction to maintain the status quo while the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals hears the related case in Iowa regarding Kalshi. Among the six companies that received cease-and-desist orders, four, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have not yet followed up with lawsuits.

According to Cointelegraph, a recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that a majority of American respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. The survey indicates that 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents oppose using prediction markets to bet on election outcomes. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5, covering 4,506 adults nationwide.Aside from elections, even regarding betting on professional sports events, 43% of respondents expressed opposition, while only 29% indicated support. The prediction market industry is currently dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on U.S. elections, government policy trends, and sports events, and has sparked multiple lawsuits regarding regulatory authority.The Trump administration is pushing for federal regulation of the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while several states have expressed opposition to this. Previously, on October 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 states and the District of Columbia submitted an amicus brief, indicating that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market issues has created a "national turf war" that cannot be resolved without a Supreme Court ruling.

According to Bloomberg, the New Taipei District Court in Taiwan has authorized Taiwan's communication regulatory agency and internet registration agency to block domestic access to Coinbase and the prediction market platform Kalshi, due to allegations of providing election betting services.This blockage occurs a few weeks before the local elections in Taiwan, which will test the public support for President Lai Ching-te's government. Some Coinbase users in Taiwan have reported that they have been unable to access the platform normally since Wednesday.

According to Bitcoin.com analysis, the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi saw a single-day nominal trading volume of up to $3.9 billion over the weekend, with combo bets contributing about 70% of the weekend's nominal trading volume.The analysis also pointed out that nominal trading volume measures the face value scale of contracts and does not equate to the actual cash invested by buyers, nor does it represent the number of new users on the platform. Therefore, this metric cannot directly reflect Kalshi's actual capital inflow or user growth situation.

The media and conference organization NEXTPredict announced that it has executed the first trade in the flight cancellation market through Kalshi to hedge investments for its October summit, locking in $3 million in guarantees. The company paid a premium of $12,000, and if the cancellation rate of flights arriving at New York's Kennedy International Airport on October 21 exceeds 50%, the contract will automatically pay out, covering the summit costs, as October 21 is the main travel day for attendees. Susquehanna acted as the market maker for this transaction.Kalshi launched the flight cancellation market after self-certifying the contract with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on July 14, allowing participants to trade on whether the cancellation volume at specific airports exceeds preset thresholds. This market does not target individual flights and has clear anti-manipulation clauses. NEXTPredict is a media and event platform focused on the global prediction market industry, launched by the NEXT.io team. Its flagship event, the "Global Prediction Market Summit," will be held from October 22 to 23, 2026, at Convene Hudson Yards in New York, bringing together founders, executives, investors, and policymakers.NEXTPredict and Kalshi position this trade as institutional hedging, similar to how airlines hedge against fuel costs or farmers hedge against crop yields, rather than betting on the fate of the summit.

According to a report by The Block citing The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating several trades that correctly bet on Trump appointing Katie Zacharia as White House Press Secretary before the announcement was made. Trump confirmed the appointment in a post on Truth Social on Friday afternoon, with Zacharia replacing Karoline Leavitt.At least three bets totaling approximately $173 were placed before the media reported on the candidate, with the market expected to pay out about $9,600 in total after settlement. One bet of about $19 was placed around 10:42 PM (Eastern Time) on Thursday, with an expected payout of $1,896; two other bets of approximately $74 and $80 were placed around 1:41 PM on Friday, with expected payouts of $3,689 and $4,023, respectively.The report stated that a few days before the news broke, Kalshi traders assigned a probability of about 1% to Zacharia. This investigation comes after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reached a settlement in August with a former White House teleprompter operator who had traded on markets related to Trump’s speeches on Kalshi.

According to Bloomberg, on October 11, 2026, the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket saw record trading volumes over the weekend driven by NFL and NCAA events, with a total of $8.56 billion over two days, data compiled by Dune Analytics shows. The combined trading volume of the two platforms reached $22.2 billion that week, also setting a record.The prediction markets previously allowed users to trade on a variety of events, from Federal Reserve decisions to pop culture. This season's American football season shows that its growth is increasingly reliant on sports trading. The surge in NFL trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has prompted a review of sports betting regulations.

The prediction market platform Kalshi's Kalshi Research released a report titled "Who Trades Prediction Markets?", with a subtitle focusing on community income, background, and probability reasoning, marked for publication in October 2026. The report studies the composition of prediction market traders, with data sourced from administrative records and surveys, and compares it to a general population sample.The administrative data covers the residential ZIP codes of each direct trader on Kalshi since January 2026, and aligns with the median household income from the American Community Survey. The survey was distributed in September 2026 to the highest profit and loss traders across various market categories, excluding sports and special categories, targeting 2,360 accounts, with 325 completed responses, resulting in a response rate of 13.8%.The report states that the median income reflected by traders' residential locations is close to the national level, with a modal range crossing $80,734, and only 6.3% residing in ZIP codes with median incomes above $150,000. Among the highest profit and loss traders, 82% have never worked full-time in investment banks, hedge funds, private equity, or proprietary trading firms, 91% are not full-time traders, and 65% claim to have learned about markets and probabilities primarily or entirely on their own. In comparison to 1,005 American adults, this group scored an average of 2.42/4 on the Berlin Mathematical Test, while the public scored 0.62, with a proportion of 93% resisting the gambler's fallacy, compared to 57% in the public.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating betting activity related to "Trump's press secretary candidate" on its platform. Three bets, amounting to approximately $19, $74, and $80, appeared before the reports of Katie Zacharia being selected were published.The report states that the contract ultimately settled at "yes," but it remains unclear whether the related accounts are subject to withdrawal restrictions.

On October 8, the oracle network Pyth released its third-quarter update: As of the end of the third quarter, the active ARR was $11.49 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 86.5%, driven by exchanges, prediction markets, and AI; the net new ARR for the third quarter was $5.33 million. By the end of September, Pyth Pro had an operating ARR of $9.68 million, Pyth Indices had $1.81 million, covering 16 active clients, with a total of 276 paid accounts across all services, and terminal self-service contributed $500,000 in new ARR in September.In terms of exchanges, the trading volume of the real-world asset perpetual market in the third quarter was $2.09 trillion, with Pyth-supported venues accounting for 94.1%. Coinbase uses Pyth data to support the continuously priced thematic market, and the index calculated with Pyth data supports the listing of stock index futures on Coinbase Derivatives; Trade[XYZ], OKX, and Lighter also use Pyth's Pro and Indices data. In the prediction market sector, Kalshi uses Pyth prices to cover the stock and commodity markets and listed Pyth as the sole data source for gold and silver perpetuals on its CFTC-registered exchange in its September filing; Pyth also provides data for Polymarket's real-world asset market.