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According to four informed sources, the Bank of Japan may raise its inflation outlook for the next fiscal year in the forecasts to be released this month, as rising oil prices are exerting more persistent price pressures on the economy than expected.Sources said that given that the Bank of Japan just raised interest rates last month, it is expected to maintain interest rates at the two-day policy meeting ending on October 30, unless the yen exchange rate falls significantly again, which would raise import costs and overall inflation levels.Sources indicated that the Bank of Japan may continue to emphasize the growing inflation risks in the quarterly report released after the meeting, leaving room for another rate hike as early as December. One of the sources pointed out that the increase in consumer prices may last longer than expected, although underlying inflation has not changed significantly. Two other sources also expressed the same view.

Cryptocurrency trader Ansem posted that frequently monitoring the market and judging price trends based on 15-minute candlesticks can easily lead to overtrading. Investors should manage their spot, perpetual contract, and high-risk on-chain trading accounts separately, and should not attempt to catch every local top and bottom, as this may harm long-term investment returns. Instead of frequent trading, it is better to study historical bull markets and observe how long upward trends typically last.The upward cycles of altcoins are usually faster, often outperforming the market for 4 to 6 months, after which new market leaders emerge, especially after a market capitalization growth of more than 10 times. However, there may be a few exceptions in this cycle: some altcoins may see significant revenue growth alongside price increases, thus their fundamentals may improve simultaneously.In past cycles, altcoins primarily peaked due to shifts in market attention and weakening momentum, but in this cycle, if some projects experience substantial changes in revenue and other data, institutional funds may continue to buy actively, and investors need to adjust their original judgments in a timely manner based on new information.In the last cycle, Bitcoin bottomed out in January 2023 and peaked in October 2025, with an upward trend lasting about 33 months. If this cycle bottomed out in July, it is currently only in the 4th month.It is believed that in a longer-term bull market, multiple "mini-bulls" led by specific altcoins will emerge, and investors need to identify these phase-strong assets and continuously reinvest profits into high-performing targets, allowing short-term winners to gradually transform into long-term investments.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has made it clear that commodity companies will not be penalized for allocating investor funds to tokenized assets. The CFTC also pointed out that the current regulatory framework allows institutions to use blockchain technology to maintain official records.

TON ecosystem self-custody wallet Tonkeeper announced its rebranding to Keeper and expanded from a single TON wallet to a multi-chain wallet supporting 7 blockchain networks. According to a statement disclosed exclusively to The Block, Keeper now supports TON, Bitcoin, Ethereum, TRON, BNB Smart Chain, Arbitrum, and Base. Tonkeeper claims to be the largest self-custody wallet in the TON ecosystem, with over 77 million registered users.Andrew Rogozov, founder and CEO of The Open Platform, stated that Keeper is the next chapter, aiming to bring the wallet experience known for its simplicity from TON to a broader crypto economy, with the goal of creating the default self-custody wallet for a multi-chain world, allowing users to freely hold, trade, and spend across any chain. This rebranding follows changes in the management of Tonkeeper, as The Open Platform took over the operational leadership of the wallet last month, while co-founders Oleg Andreev and Oleg Illarionov remain shareholders.Keeper also includes a gas-free transaction infrastructure called Battery, which allows users to pay network fees without holding the native gas tokens of each chain. The Open Platform plans to expand Battery to all supported networks within the next year and launch native DeFi services, daily payment tools, cross-chain exchanges, a built-in decentralized application browser, and more financial products such as perpetual contract trading.

On August 24, according to Caixin, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Measures for the Administration of Foreign Investment (Revised Draft for Public Comment)" and is publicly soliciting opinions from society, from August 21 to September 20, 2026. The "Draft for Comments" expands the definition of investors from enterprises to domestic enterprises, other organizations, and individual residents, and clarifies that reinvestment by investors abroad also falls under foreign investment.In the section on foreign investment regulation, regarding the classification and regulatory division of foreign investment, the procedures for approval and filing, and other matters, investors must obtain foreign investment approval documents or filing notices before implementing foreign investments. For individual residents newly included as investors, the approval authority is the National Development and Reform Commission, and the filing authority is the provincial development and reform department of their registered residence or habitual residence.

Swissblock stated that the initial momentum launch of Bitcoin failed to form an effective breakthrough, and the momentum indicators have now returned to the "transition zone."If BTC can hold the range of $62,300 to $62,500, the current consolidation structure is still expected to be maintained.

IREN Co-Founder and Co-CEO Daniel Roberts stated that each new AI data center will further increase rather than decrease AI demand.Roberts believes that simply comparing the current AI infrastructure cycle to past technology booms is misleading. More powerful AI requires more computing power, and lower-cost AI will drive more users and applications to use AI.He pointed out that each leap in AI capabilities creates a large number of new application scenarios that did not exist before, so demand can grow rapidly at the pace of software development, but the supply of computing power cannot expand at the same speed.The construction of computing power infrastructure is limited by real-world conditions such as power access, transmission lines, concrete, steel, and construction personnel, making it difficult to quickly increase the speed of supply expansion.Roberts stated that in past technology boom cycles, technological advancements often helped the supply side catch up with demand, but the current AI technology itself is driving demand to grow exponentially, while the speed of infrastructure construction in the real world struggles to keep up.

Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% in September is about 65%, up from about 60% before the release of the PPI report.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. Treasury will maintain its repurchase plan, keeping the same pace as the previous quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.2%. By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 23.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.3%.

According to Coin Bureau, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate level throughout 2026.It believes that the trend of slowing inflation will overshadow hawkish signals and the market's rising expectations for a rate hike in September.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 63.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 26.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 56.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 0% (before the Federal Reserve's decision, these were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively).By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 26.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 55.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 18.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points is 0% (before the Federal Reserve's decision, these were 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% respectively).

The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes. The decision statement noted that Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan favored raising interest rates, reiterating that inflation remains high, partly due to the impact of shocks.

According to Jinshi reports, HSBC analyst Daragh Maher pointed out in a report that, given the market has digested some interest rate hike expectations, the dollar may weaken if the Federal Reserve announces to keep interest rates unchanged. He stated that to curb the initial decline of the dollar, at least three Federal Reserve members need to vote in favor of an interest rate hike.Maher said, "If the pace of rate hikes is faster than expected, it will force the market to consider whether this is the first rate hike in a series of rate hikes."

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with "maintaining rates but leaning hawkish" (probability of 50%) as the baseline scenario, which could lead to the S&P 500 index remaining flat or declining by 0.5%. Meanwhile, "maintaining rates but leaning dovish" (probability of 28%) is seen as the most favorable scenario for the market, potentially driving the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability of 20%) could result in the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5% to 2%.

According to Jinshi, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 30.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged drops to 23.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points rises to 56.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 20.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, a strategist at TD Securities stated in a report that if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates on Wednesday, the dollar may experience a reflexive weakness. It is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged, but Federal Reserve officials Harker and Logan will hold opposing views, supporting a rate hike. Nevertheless, due to the intact expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes for the remainder of 2026, any short-term weakness of the dollar may be limited.