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Gate Research Institute: BTC implied volatility is at 88% high over the past year, with 24H call spread strategies dominating the market

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, the current implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH is approximately 53% and 69%, respectively. The BTC IV is near the 88th percentile of the past year, reflecting a significant increase in the options market's expectations for short-term price volatility. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has remained in negative territory, initially converging before sharply dropping to -18 vol on the short end around the 23rd to 24th, indicating a temporary rise in risk aversion; subsequently, the Skew quickly recovered, showing that the impact is driven by short-term events.From the GEX distribution perspective, Gamma is concentrated around the end of February expiration, putting pressure on short-term volatility; there is negative Gamma in mid-March, and if this range is reached, volatility may be amplified, posing a structural switching risk. In the past 24 hours, large options trades for BTC and ETH have been predominantly bullish: the largest structure is BTC 27MAR26 buy 90k-C / sell 100k-C, approximately 600 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of $70,000; for ETH, it is 27MAR26 buy 2500-C, approximately 9,000 ETH, with a net premium payment of $220,000.Gate has fully upgraded its options VIP fee structure, covering all options products, achieving substantial fee reductions for users from beginners to professionals. VIP0 can enjoy lower rates without asset or transaction thresholds, giving newcomers a cost advantage from the start; during the growth phase, users with "hundred-thousand assets, million transactions" can upgrade to lower rates, with thresholds far below the billion-level transaction or high asset requirements of mainstream platforms; professional and institutional users at VIP10+ can enjoy extremely low rates of Maker 0% and Taker 0.015%, truly achieving cost optimization across all stages.

Data: BTC and ETH options with a nominal value of 8.9 billion dollars will expire tomorrow, and options market data shows that bottom-fishing strength is beginning to emerge

According to data from Greeks.live, 116,000 BTC options will expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.76, a maximum pain point of $75,000, and a nominal value of $7.9 billion. 206,000 ETH options will also expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, a maximum pain point of $2,200, and a nominal value of $980 million.Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that the current cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with the entire February trend weakly oscillating above $60,000. Tomorrow, options representing 20% of the total open interest will expire, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin's open interest reaching a peak in recent years. Thanks to a rebound in the past two days, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased this week, with BTC's main expiry IV at 47% and ETH's main expiry IV at 65%. The downward price trend has eased somewhat, but market confidence is still lacking.In terms of trading, large bullish options dominate the market, with a significant amount of medium to long-term bullish trades following yesterday's rebound. From the main options data, the Skew has also rebounded comprehensively, indicating a bottom-fishing force in the market. Adam added that the market is still in a bear phase, with no new funds entering the cryptocurrency space and no obvious hotspots, while pessimistic sentiments are prevalent on social media, suggesting that bottom panic may not have arrived yet.

Analyst: Leverage liquidation dominates this round of decline, with $60,000 being a key support area for Bitcoin

Presto Research Associate Researcher Min Jung stated that Bitcoin's drop below $63,000 seems to reflect a broad deterioration in cryptocurrency market sentiment rather than a single fundamental catalyst. In the short term, macro headlines, particularly those surrounding tariffs and resurfacing geopolitical uncertainties, are exacerbating the risk-off sentiment towards digital assets.Jung added, "It is noteworthy that even as traditional risk assets remain relatively resilient, cryptocurrencies have performed poorly recently. This divergence suggests that the sell-off is not purely driven by macro factors, but also reflects weak marginal demand, thinning liquidity conditions, and ongoing deleveraging within the crypto-native market."Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima stated, "We have seen massive long liquidations, with hundreds of millions evaporating, funding rates remaining negative, a sharp decline in open interest, and the futures market clearly leaning bearish. Short-term holders are suffering significant losses, but long-term holders have not yet begun large-scale selling; on-chain HODL signals indicate that some are quietly accumulating during this strategic de-risking process."Adziima pointed out that the $60,000-$63,000 range is a key support area for Bitcoin. If the price can hold steady at or above this level, the market may benefit from the damage caused to shorts by negative funding rates, creating conditions for a classic "squeeze after a washout." The analyst added that potential easing of macroeconomic conditions or a return of ETF funds could further support this trend.Adziima stated that, on the other hand, if it falls below $60,000, in the worst-case scenario, an accelerated chain liquidation due to worsening macro conditions could open the door to a drop towards the mid-$55,000s or even as low as $47,000. Adziima remarked, "At that point, we might ultimately force some long-term holders to capitulate, turning this into a deeper bear market extension before the true cycle bottom arrives."

Analysis: During the Bitcoin bear market phase, whales dominate CEX deposits, and stablecoin inflows sharply decrease

According to The Block, in the current bear market environment, the inflow of funds to Bitcoin trading platforms is dominated by large holders. Data shows that the whale ratio on trading platforms has risen to 0.64, the highest level since October 2015, indicating that 64% of the Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms comes from the top ten single deposit addresses, showing that large investors are leading the sell-off.At the same time, the average single transaction inflow to Bitcoin trading platforms has risen to 1.58 BTC, the highest level since the mid-point of the last bear market in June 2022. However, after Bitcoin pulled back to around $60,000 earlier this month, total inflows to trading platforms briefly surged to about 60,000 BTC (the highest since November 2024), before falling back to a 7-day average of about 23,000 BTC, a decrease of about 60% from the peak, indicating that the phase of panic selling has eased, but the overall inflow level is still higher than in previous months.In terms of altcoins, selling pressure is also evident. Since 2026, the average daily number of deposits for altcoins on trading platforms has been about 49,000, a 22% increase from about 40,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025. CryptoQuant points out that high altcoin deposits usually indicate rising volatility and reflect weak market confidence in non-Bitcoin assets. Additionally, the inflow of stablecoins has significantly declined. The daily net inflow of Tether (USDT) to trading platforms has dropped from a peak of $616 million in November 2025 to about $27 million recently, with multiple instances of net outflows during this period, including a single-day net outflow of $469 million on January 25, 2026.The institution believes that the decrease in stablecoin inflows means that the "ammunition" for marginal buying has diminished. Overall, CryptoQuant believes that the current market structure shows characteristics of concentrated Bitcoin selling at whale addresses, widespread distribution of altcoins, and a contraction in stablecoin liquidity, indicating that in the ongoing bear market phase, market demand is limited, and prices face further volatility risks.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professionals Association calls for a suspension of the enforcement of virtual asset practitioner examination requirements through covert policy measures

According to a report by Hong Kong media Orange News, the President of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Professionals Association, Chen Zhi-hua, disclosed that the Hong Kong virtual asset industry is facing a sudden "compliance storm." Practitioners in related businesses have reported encountering bewildering regulatory requirements during the application process for virtual asset-related business qualifications. The existing written policy requires an additional 5 hours of Continuing Professional Training (CPT).However, the latest requirements were not issued through formal written documents or public guidelines, but were communicated "quietly" to license upgrade applicants in the form of verbal notifications or individual emails, stating that all responsible officers (RO) for relevant license upgrades, including those who have already obtained upgrade qualifications, must pass a virtual asset regulation exam conducted by a designated single institution. This nearly "invisible" directive undermines the transparency and fairness that regulatory agencies should uphold.Chen Zhi-hua suggested maintaining the original requirement of an additional 5 hours of Continuing Professional Training (CPT) and urged regulatory agencies to immediately suspend the enforcement of exam requirements through invisible policies.
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