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According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from Galaxy Digital indicates that due to a lack of speculative activity, the Bitcoin cycle low may occur at higher price levels than in previous bear markets. The analysis suggests that the potential bottom is between $62,000 and the actual Bitcoin price of $53,600.Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn analyzed each top and bottom of the Bitcoin cycle and noted that the four-year cycle is closely related to Bitcoin's historical trends. The decline from peak to trough has steadily narrowed across market cycles, decreasing from early drops of 85% and 84% to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. The current top signal for October 2025 is weak, with only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators signaling, while the widely watched Pi Cycle Top indicator has failed to trigger for the first time.The market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) for Bitcoin peaked at 2.29, while this ratio ranged from 2.93 to 5.91 in previous cycles. The report also found that several key bottom signals are still missing. Currently, only 4 out of 13 indicators have been triggered, and most stronger signals have yet to appear. Thorn pointed out that based on the current cost price of $53,600, Galaxy estimates the fundamental bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. A more severe "washout" scenario points to $30,000 to $37,000, while a more gradual decline may maintain around $51,000 to $54,000.

According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated in a report on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached the final bottom of this monetary cycle. The cycle low for Bitcoin is currently set at $59,000, down 53% from the historical high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Kendrick expects that by the end of this year, the price of Ethereum will reach $4,000, and the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000.He pointed out that there are two core factors supporting this market rebound. First, in recent weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced the most severe sell-off since their inception. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. He also noted that it is rumored that ETF holders have been liquidating their positions to free up funds to participate in SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Kendrick stated that SpaceX's IPO this Friday could end the current selling pressure.Second, if the G7-related peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran is true, it would help prevent oil prices from skyrocketing. A decline in oil prices would suppress the rising U.S. Treasury yields, thereby alleviating the macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. To confirm that the market bottom is solid, Kendrick will closely monitor in the coming days: the news on Monday about Strategy (MSTR) increasing its Bitcoin holdings this week; whether the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can restore net inflows this Friday.

According to a report by Galaxy Research, the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin remains effective, but the volatility of each cycle is narrowing.The report points out that the peak-to-trough declines in the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 were 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively, while the maximum drawdown in this cycle from the peak in October 2025 to now is only 51%.Due to the relatively mild peak in this cycle, Galaxy believes that the bottom of this cycle will also be relatively shallow, with the baseline scenario expected to be in the range of $40,000 to $46,000, potentially before the fourth quarter of 2026.The report emphasizes that only 8 months have passed since the peak, which is far less than the 12-13 months typically required for the formation of a historical cycle bottom, and most cycle bottom signals have not yet appeared, indicating that the bottom of this cycle has not yet formed.

CryptoQuant released the latest report indicating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market, currently only 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600, and from a valuation perspective, it is close to the bottom range of previous bear markets. However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the current bottom has not yet been confirmed. Last week, total Bitcoin demand dropped to negative 652,000 BTC, marking the largest contraction since January 2022; the one-year apparent spot demand growth rate also turned negative, falling to its weakest level since February 2024.Meanwhile, ETF purchase demand experienced the fastest contraction since its launch in January 2024, with the 30-day ETF demand growth rate hitting a historical low. The report also stated that realized losses in the past 30 days amounted to 187,000 BTC, which has not yet reached the level of historic sell-off clearance.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the bottom for Bitcoin may be around $53,600, which is the current realized price and has historically marked the bottom of bear markets multiple times. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,150, about 9% higher than that level. However, demand conditions remain weak. CryptoQuant estimates that total demand decreased by 652,000 BTC last week, marking the largest single-week decline since January 2022. The 30-day ETF demand growth has dropped to -74,000 BTC, the weakest level since the ETF was launched. Meanwhile, the realized losses over the past 30 days amount to 187,000 BTC, significantly lower than the 400,000 BTC when it first fell below $60,000 in February and the 1.2 million BTC during the FTX collapse in November 2022, indicating that a capitulation-style sell-off has not yet been reached. Moreno stated that while the price level may suggest a bottom is near, a bull market requires a recovery in demand, which has not yet been reflected in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF capital flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation peaks, the current price should be viewed as a candidate for valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin, or the on-chain average cost basis for all market participants.The report points out that during previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottoms out near or slightly below the realized price. Currently, Bitcoin previously fell to a bear market low of about $59,000, which is only about 9% away from the $53,600 realized price, and then rebounded to around $62,150.However, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the demand environment for Bitcoin remains "extremely unfavorable," and a true bull market recovery requires a significant warming of demand, while current on-chain data has not yet shown that this condition has been met.

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, stated that on-chain valuation metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, but it has not reached the cheapness of previous cycle bottoms. He noted that this bear market may be shallower than past ones due to the smaller gains in the previous bull market, along with improvements in market structure such as ETP availability, wealth platform deployment, and institutional adoption.Zach believes investors can focus on two major short-term catalysts: the progress of the Senate's "Clarity Act" and whether leveraged Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets. He remains optimistic about the "Clarity Act," but predicts that market signals show a low probability of the bill passing. Pandl believes the current price levels provide long-term investors with an opportunity to accumulate positions in batches, while short-term traders may wait for developments on the bill.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis of the recent Bitcoin price trend on the X platform, noting that the current Bitcoin price is in the $62,000 range, having dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a decline of 24% over the past month. The price has crossed the upper range of its pricing framework, entering a valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously shown bottoms.Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottom signals. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022, currently situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average price is around $61,700.The current high-probability bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000, with a rare "sell-off tail" below that range of $35,000 to $40,000. It is important to note that the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is gradually decreasing: previous rounds of lows saw declines of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50%, indicating that a high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-off possibilities cannot be ruled out.

According to Yu Jin, a whale borrowed approximately 44.42 million USDT through two addresses on Aave to leverage buy 25,851 ETH, with an entry price of about $1,718 per coin. One of the addresses has a position health of 1.23, corresponding to a liquidation price of about $1,355.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), stated that he has repurchased all previously sold Ethereum positions at an average price of $1,645, after clearing positions in the range of $2,200 to $2,400. Although the repurchase operation has been completed, he believes that the overall market is still in a downtrend, but Bitcoin has received support twice around $61,000 and has not effectively broken down, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand.Based on this judgment, Jiang Zhuoer expects Bitcoin to experience a rebound in the next 1 to 3 days and plans to sell the recently repurchased Ethereum positions again during the rebound process.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC on June 1, it triggered a new round of volatility in the BTC market. He pointed out that the scale of the sale itself is not important, as Strategy still holds approximately 840,000 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at about $5.5 billion. However, as one of the largest digital asset treasury managers in the world, its strategic shift puts pressure on market sentiment.Pandl believes that more importantly, the recent volatility affects the price of Strategy's variable rate preferred stock tool STRC. STRC is designed to maintain a price of about $100 per share, with a current dividend yield of 11.5%. If the stock price falls below $100, it means investors are demanding a higher return. Strategy can increase dividends, but this will increase future cash flow obligations and may lead to more BTC sales, further suppressing BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged business model is under pressure, increasing volatility across the entire BTC market.At the current levels of STRC and MSTR stock prices, Grayscale believes that Strategy's ability to continue accumulating more BTC is limited. However, Grayscale believes that in the long term, reducing the BTC on the leveraged digital asset treasury balance sheet and allowing more BTC to be distributed across diversified corporate balance sheets will benefit the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem. But before a sustainable bottom for BTC prices is formed, other buyers need to enter the market. Grayscale expects BTC prices to recover in the coming months, but in the short term, BTC's performance may lag behind other segments of the crypto market that directly benefit from regulatory clarity.

According to The Block, Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that "the bottom has almost appeared" for Bitcoin after a recent sharp decline, with the current range of about $63,000 being a "buying range." He pointed out that since February, the overall holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have remained stable, with no concentrated redemptions that would raise concerns, indicating that funds are more "structurally stable."Kendrick expects that after the recent selling pressure triggered by Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, there may be a buyback at a scale of 10 times or even 100 times, following historical practices, which could signal the confirmation of a temporary low. He also cautioned that there is still a downside risk of Bitcoin falling below $60,000, but believes that buying in batches is preferable to trying to time the bottom precisely. The bank maintains its year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.

Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to approximately 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in a profit state for the first time, accounting for over half of the total circulating supply. This is the first occurrence in this cycle where the number of loss chips exceeds the number of profit chips. Historical data indicates that this metric has only appeared during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded with significant market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, although the duration varied from one month to a year.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price touched approximately $61,300, which is the 200-week moving average, a level that has consistently formed key long-term support during past bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 threshold, the next important support level will be around the realized price of approximately $54,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below the realized price during major bear markets.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, the whale known for "buying the dip during market crashes," 7 Siblings, has taken action again. About 1 hour ago, it borrowed 10 million USDT from the Spark protocol and then purchased 5,589 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,789, with a total value of about 10 million dollars.

Gold supporter and long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff recently stated that he believes there is excessive optimism in the current Bitcoin market, and that it is still a long way from truly bottoming out. Schiff predicts that if Bitcoin falls below the $50,000 mark, the price could quickly drop further to below $20,000, shaking the confidence of long-term holders (HODLers) and triggering a larger-scale sell-off.Schiff also mentioned that the market needs to pay attention to whether a decline in Bitcoin will become a precursor to a broader adjustment in risk assets. If a Bitcoin crash is limited to the crypto market, it may be due to factors within the industry itself; however, if it simultaneously affects stocks and other risk assets, it could indicate that deeper macro risks are accumulating.He further pointed out that in such a scenario, investors may turn back to gold, cash, and other traditional safe-haven assets, seeking higher security and certainty.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated yesterday that Bitcoin is currently forming an expanding triangle pattern, which is relatively common and usually reliable in Bitcoin's history, with a target based on projecting the height of the pattern from the breakout point.According to the measurement rules for the expanding triangle: Target = height of the pattern projected downward from the breakout point. The attached diagram shows a widening triangle (with the upper and lower bounds gradually diverging). The breakout point is roughly around $74,000 (marked as 74,395 in the diagram), and after projecting the height of the pattern (from the highest point to the lowest point of the widest part of the triangle), the arrow points to the area around $56,000.

Tom Lee stated that the recent market anxiety, including the slight sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a deep-seated crisis. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.004% of the company's over 843,700 Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, regarding the outflow of $3.4 billion from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for 11 consecutive days, Tom Lee believes that capital outflow is a classic lagging indicator of market cycle reset. Bitmine's macro strategy has not changed, and its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still underway, with its Ethereum holdings currently reaching nearly 5.4 million.

According to information from a third-party data platform, Bitcoin's Ahr999 has once again fallen below 0.45 after a month, reporting at 0.4322. As a result, this indicator has returned to the "bottom-buying range." This indicator was created by ahr999 and aims to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the yield of short-term Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.Historically, the Ahr999 index for Bitcoin has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 572 days. The dollar-cost averaging range is 0.45-1.2, representing a relatively reasonable range for Bitcoin prices, suitable for adhering to a regular investment strategy.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on platform X, stating that in the last cycle, "there were eight correct operations and one wrong one," but the cost of a single mistake was significant; however, the related losses mainly belong to the previous profit pullback.Yi Lihua mentioned that after this round of rebound ends, he will fully prepare to bottom out in the new round of market trends, while dedicating more than half of his time and energy to AI stocks and AI investment research, and stated, "Optimists always choose to believe in trends; only by believing can one avoid panicking at crypto lows and AI highs."