ChainCatcher message, Cryptoquant analysts released a report stating that based on historical data, the price of Bitcoin is currently in a key psychological turning point, situated between optimism and pessimism. Market participants form optimistic or pessimistic views based on whether they are in profit; as long as Bitcoin remains within this range, it indicates that a significant drop is unlikely.Historical data shows that maintaining stability in key areas is crucial for the continuation of a bull market. Specifically, the "profit supply" indicator, which reflects periods of investor profitability, suggests that when a large portion of the supply is in profit, optimistic sentiment tends to rise. The current price level of Bitcoin is testing this optimistic zone.

ChainCatcher news, Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that if Donald Trump wins the presidential election next month, the price of Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000. While analysts expect Bitcoin to perform well in the long term regardless of the outcome, they stated that if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may test the $40,000 range again.This year, Trump has repositioned himself as a candidate supportive of cryptocurrency—accepting cryptocurrency as campaign donations and outlining policies to turn the U.S. into a "powerhouse" for Bitcoin mining, appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, and establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. In contrast, Harris only recently mentioned cryptocurrency in any speeches or policy statements; last month she made broader comments stating that she would encourage cryptocurrency businesses while protecting consumers, and that the U.S. should "take the lead" in the blockchain space, with digital assets being part of her "opportunity economy" vision.While Bernstein analysts believe that, in the context of low interest rates, ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits, and unprecedented debt levels, Bitcoin will perform well in the long term regardless of the outcome, the short-term reaction to the election could be substantial.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant analyst BlitzzTrading stated: "Historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin has never fallen below the average cost of wallets holding over 10,000 BTC. Even during bear markets, the average cost of such wallets has provided support.Since March 3, we have observed that wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have made significant purchases, with the current average cost at $39,874. Even if we enter a bear market, the $39,874 level can serve as a good support level."

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen 10% this week, primarily due to large-scale selling in the spot market and broader market liquidations of leveraged positions. After reaching a local high of $66,587 on September 27, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, especially after breaking below the critical level of $65,200, triggering a series of long liquidations that drove Bitcoin down to $60,000.In fact, last week's selling in the spot market was exacerbated by the escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which intensified de-risking and led to long liquidations amounting to $450 million on October 1. With Bitcoin experiencing its first four consecutive days of decline since early August, the market underwent a healthy correction, with open interest dropping from over $35 billion to $31.8 billion. The decrease in open interest indicates that market conditions are relatively stable, and the risk of sudden price fluctuations is now lower.On October 4, as labor market data improved, Bitcoin rebounded to $62,500 and briefly rose to $64,027 during trading on October 7, when spot buying enthusiasm picked up. However, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the short-term market direction. Several altcoins also exhibited significant volatility, with large-cap assets like XRP and APT experiencing fluctuations between 15-20%. As the market remains in a passive state, clues to the future direction of BTC and the overall market may lie in any positioning during the early trading sessions of this week, especially in the U.S.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the liquidation of long positions may have established a local bottom. Although price sentiment remains bearish and technical indicators suggest the possibility of further declines, the liquidation levels of long positions in the Bitcoin futures market indicate that selling pressure has eased. During significant price drops, the number of contracts purchased often declines sharply due to liquidations, thereby alleviating the market's selling pressure.On October 1, over 4,000 BTC long positions were liquidated, marking the second-largest liquidation event of 2024 according to CryptoQuant data. Typically, these moments of high losses and liquidations form local bottoms, opening up space for short-term recoveries. Currently, prices may maintain the current range in the short term, but attention needs to be paid to the buying strength to reverse the downward trend.

ChainCatcher news, CleanSpark CEO Zach Bradford stated in an interview with Bernstein that he expects Bitcoin to reach a peak close to $200,000 within the next 18 months.Bradford also noted that Bitcoin-focused miners are currently undervalued and believes that the price of Bitcoin may rise after the U.S. elections. CleanSpark has held 97% of its mined Bitcoin since June 2023, with its current holdings nearing 8,000 BTC.

ChainCatcher news, according to the analysis of the account Bitcoindata21, Coinbase's download numbers often rank among the top 500 apps in the Apple App Store. After a decline this month, its popularity has risen again. Coinbase has now reached the 385th position.The chart shows that download numbers are closely related to Bitcoin price performance, with Coinbase's ranking entering the top 175 during the bull market. Currently, as Bitcoin prices rebound, user interest has seen a resurgence.Santiment analysis points out that although positive comments have reached their highest level of the year, new historical highs are still to be awaited.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, analysts say that over the past eight years, the price of Bitcoin has shown a positive correlation with the size of the Chinese central bank's balance sheet. The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin's price and the size of the Chinese central bank's balance sheet is 0.66. It has been positive except for 2016 and from the end of 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, Bitcoin's correlation with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over 30 days is -0.88, the lowest level recorded since 2016.The Chinese central bank is considering launching an economic stimulus plan of up to 1 trillion yuan (approximately 142 billion USD) to boost the economy, which has led to a significant rise in Asian stock markets, particularly the notable increase in the CSI 300 index.Analysts believe that this stimulus plan may indirectly benefit Bitcoin, as it could increase investment in blockchain and cryptocurrency-related projects. This monetary easing policy may drive more capital into the digital asset space.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital has released its latest market analysis report. The report indicates that Bitcoin is currently oscillating in the range of $62,000 to $64,000, while Ethereum's trading price is close to the low of $2,600. Micron Technology (MU) shares surged 16% due to an upward revision of its fourth-quarter revenue expectations, and the market anticipates that chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA) may follow suit, which could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break through $64,000.Today's key macro events include U.S. GDP data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The market will closely monitor Powell's speech for any changes in policy stance following last week's FOMC press conference. U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris has reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, promising to position the U.S. as a leading force in "AI, quantum computing, and blockchain."QCP Capital believes that as global central banks begin to ease monetary policy, the expected increase in liquidity may drive cryptocurrency prices higher. The company suggests that investors consider going long on long-term options structures with unlimited upside potential to capture potential parabolic price increases.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research released a market analysis indicating that BTC is expected to reach an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024. It recently discussed the potential catalysts for BTC's year-end rebound and noted that the current market structure has improved, with stablecoins continuing to be issued and futures leverage also on the rise. As we approach the critical window from October to March, the likelihood of a significant breakthrough will increase.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Australian crypto trading firm Zerocap stated that Bitcoin is "hard to predict," and after the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates on September 18, Bitcoin could drop to $53,000 or rise to $65,000.Zerocap's Chief Investment Officer Jonathan de Wet mentioned that the market now expects a 62% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 50 basis points (0.5%), which has already contributed to Bitcoin's brief rebound to $60,000 on September 13.However, Wet stated that due to the lingering uncertainty of the impact of rate cuts in the short term, price movements are "hard to predict," and the instability of the upcoming November U.S. elections will only complicate matters further, "after the recent range lows, we see a downside target for BTC at $53,000, while the upside target after breaking the descending wedge is $65,000."He added, "It's hard to predict the direction before the elections, but the risk situation should lead to short-term positive sentiment."

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst PlanB posted on platform X, stating, "The market is still consolidating, with a trading range around 60k. I can re-enter the market. Moreover, Bitcoin is in a bull market, but the rise has not yet come. Miners are still struggling to cope with the consequences of the halving. We need the Bitcoin price to double to kickstart the bull market."Crypto analyst Willy Woo commented below his tweet, "According to the current BTC pricing, only the latest models of mining machines can be profitable after the halving. As the chart shows, now is generally a good time to buy BTC (and mine with the latest generation hardware)."

ChainCatcher news reports that Bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 mark ahead of widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this week. The upcoming policy adjustments from the Fed have left global markets on edge.The first interest rate cut in over four years in the U.S. signals a more accommodative financial environment, which is typically a positive backdrop for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. However, investors are uncertain about the magnitude of the rate hike on Wednesday, as well as how the market will react to the latest forecasts from Fed officials (the so-called dot plot) and Fed Chair Powell's briefing.Bitcoin's price rose 10% in the seven days leading up to last Sunday, marking the largest weekly gain since July, which may reflect a resurgence in bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets, stated that in the Bitcoin options market, traders are "pricing in a weight that is significantly greater than what we've seen recently" regarding the Fed meeting.It can be said that the outlook for monetary policy has become the main driver of Bitcoin's short-term movements, overshadowing (at least for now) the impact of the U.S. presidential election. (Bloomberg)

ChainCatcher news, according to data tracked by Hyblock Capital, market depth (the collection of buy and sell orders, whether close to or far from market prices) has dried up over the weekend. This pattern typically appears at market turning points, indicating that the trend of Bitcoin's decline from the high of over $65,000 at the end of August has ended.Liquidity, represented by market depth, measures the market's ability to absorb large trade orders without affecting prices. It often depends on several factors, including the time of day, current market events, and specific price levels.The characteristic of a market bottom is that traders find it difficult to take decisive action, leading to a reduction in buy and sell orders and a decrease in liquidity.Shubh Verma, co-founder and CEO of Hyblock Capital, stated in an interview with CoinDesk: "By analyzing the aggregated spot order book, particularly the order book depth of 0%-1% and 1%-5%, we found that low order book liquidity often coincides with market bottoms. These low order book levels may be early indicators of price reversals, typically preceding bullish trends."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's weekly MACD has been negative since April, but the Bitcoin price has remained in a slightly downward-sloping channel between $50,000 and $70,000, forming a "bull flag" pattern rather than a sharp downward trend, which contradicts the persistent MACD signals.Indicator data shows that since the end of April, the MACD has remained bearish, coupled with the flag price pattern, suggesting that there is bullish sentiment beneath the surface price action. This indicates that sellers have failed to establish a strong downward trend, as even during the panic selling in early August, the price was only suppressed to between $55,000 and $50,000. The long-term weakness of sellers suggests that a bull market may suddenly revive, leading to a price increase.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, NYDIG pointed out that there are fewer "catalysts" driving the recent rise in Bitcoin. September is typically a month of weak performance for Bitcoin prices, but on the bright side, October is usually one of the strongest months for Bitcoin prices.Market data shows that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $57,000, having risen over 3% in the past 24 hours.

ChainCatcher news, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $13 million by 2045. He made this prediction based on the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin and its potential as a long-term store of value.

ChainCatcher news, financial consulting publication Global Macro Investor's macro research director Julien Bittel posted on X: "This year's Bitcoin price structure is starting to look remarkably similar to 2019. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far).We are now approaching a critical moment that could lead to significant developments, and next week will be very worth watching. As we reach this potential turning point, everyone is watching Bitcoin's reaction------will it follow the 2019 script, or will there be a deviation? Let's wait and see. If the current market trend remains unchanged, we could see some significant upward momentum."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, Samson Mow, stated, "Bitcoin traders predict the price will return to $40,000, which is likely more out of fear than any technical fundamentals. A fear-driven market never lasts long because fundamentals will prevail over time, and even the most severe frauds like FTX, once exposed, cannot ultimately suppress the price of Bitcoin. The bears say Bitcoin will drop to $40,000, and this prediction has no basis other than self-induced fear."Samson Mow wrote in a post on September 6, "Bitcoin can easily reach $100,000, supported by $3 billion in daily debt, Bitcoin strategic reserves, pension allocations, and corporate purchases."According to the global market macro commentary magazine "Kobeissi Letter," the U.S. government's daily debt interest expenditure is $3 billion, three times the amount paid a decade ago, and has doubled in just 2.5 years. Calling it a "crisis" is already an understatement.