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CITIC Securities Bao Chengchao: The valuation of domestic large-cap blue chips is relatively low, and the recovery space for domestic demand manufacturing is the most ample

According to reports from People's Financial News, Bao Chengchao, the chief strategist of the research department at CITIC Securities, pointed out in his latest insights that, compared to the global market, the valuation of domestic large-cap blue-chip stocks is at a relatively low level. The A-shares market is the only one among the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and A-shares where the AI relative to non-AI valuation premium is still higher than the historical mean. As of October 22, 2026, the PE ratio of A-shares for AI/non-AI is 4.4 times, which is at the 82nd percentile since 2016, while the same indicator for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea has fallen to the 1%, 17%, and 24% percentiles, respectively.The AI premium in overseas markets has largely been absorbed by the rise in non-AI valuations. The PE ratios for non-AI non-financial leaders in the U.S. and Japan are 33.5 times and 23.0 times, respectively, which are at the 98% and 95% percentiles in history. The overall PE ratio for A-shares related to domestic demand and manufacturing non-AI blue-chip stocks is only 15.6 times, which is at the 21% percentile in history. Bao Chengchao believes that this misalignment indicates that the large-cap blue-chip stocks related to domestic demand and manufacturing in A-shares have relatively ample room for valuation recovery.Bao Chengchao also stated that the realization of this space requires coordination with macro conditions. On the overseas front, if the AI spending cycle gradually approaches a downward turning point, long-term U.S. Treasury rates may also decline, leading to marginal improvements in the demand and valuation environment for global non-AI sectors. Domestically, the clear alignment of fiscal and monetary policies places a focus on expanding domestic demand, with increasing signals of marginal improvement in core indicators of domestic demand. If the decline in overseas interest rates and the recovery of the domestic economy create a phase resonance, the profit expectations and valuation constraints of large-cap blue-chip stocks in A-shares are expected to recover simultaneously.

JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

Qianwen had 158 million monthly active users in September, a year-on-year increase of 5077%, a decrease of about 9 million compared to June

According to the latest rankings from QuestMobile, in September 2026, Alibaba's AI application Qianwen App reached 158 million monthly active users, a year-on-year increase of 5077%, ranking first in growth among apps with over 100 million monthly active users. In the domestic AI native app rankings, Qianwen ranks second, surpassing DeepSeek's 123 million, but still below the first place, Doubao, which has 419 million.This growth is related to Alibaba's large-scale promotion. In November last year, the Tongyi App was renamed to Qianwen. This Spring Festival, Alibaba announced an investment of 3 billion yuan to launch a free order campaign, allowing users to order milk tea and takeout through AI. The campaign link was widely shared in WeChat groups, and the system experienced delays due to increased traffic. QuestMobile data shows that on the first day of the campaign, Qianwen's daily active users rose from about 7.06 million to 58.48 million.The year-on-year growth of 5077% was also influenced by last year's low base. Based on year-on-year data, Qianwen's monthly active users were about 3.05 million in September last year. By March this year, Qianwen's monthly active users had reached 166 million, rising to 167 million in June, and then falling back to 158 million in September, a decrease of about 9 million compared to June, with a decline rate of approximately 5.4%.
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