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Fu Peng discusses NVIDIA's financial report: The market's reaction to the financial data is lukewarm, attention should be paid to the duration of the boost from Jensen Huang's speech

Chief Economist Fu Peng of New Fire Group published an article pointing out that although Nvidia's latest financial report has exceeded expectations for 15 consecutive quarters, the market has reacted lukewarmly to the financial data itself. Indicators such as stock price and options volatility show that market investors are currently more concerned about whether the free cash flow of the future index center can be smoothly delivered, and how long the momentum of AI growth can be maintained. These issues weigh more heavily than the performance of a single quarter's financial report, so even if this performance exceeds Wall Street's expectations by a few points, it does not change the denominator of the valuation.Fu Peng believes that Jensen Huang's statement during the conference call clearly indicated that "the inflection point for AI has arrived," which is essentially to reassure the market, aiming to strengthen market confidence in the formation of a closed-loop AI industry chain and alleviate concerns about over-investment. Investors should observe how long it takes for the market to digest this round of confidence boost, and how long the elevated expectations brought by Jensen Huang will last before fading. If the sentiment fades quickly, it indicates that the current typical market mentality is "no rabbit, no hawk," and the impact of manufacturers repeatedly reinforcing confidence in the market is gradually weakening, which can be observed from the duration of market fluctuations after each conference call.

The harsh truth of encrypted infrastructure and mergers and acquisitions: paid enterprise pilots are a dead end, mergers and acquisitions are the way out

Bitcoin.com published an article stating that the model of Web3 startups conducting corporate pilots by paying traditional financial institutions "is a dead end," with 95% of pilot projects failing to reach production environments. Web2 companies only want the idle venture capital and revenue sharing from startups, rather than their open-source innovations. The article argues that true defensiveness comes from a "structural moat"—compliance licenses, deep network liquidity, or distribution lock-ins that Web2 engineering teams cannot replicate.The article cites recent cases: Stripe was acquired for $1.1 billion after proving an annual cross-border transaction volume of $5 billion with Bridge, and Robinhood acquired Bitstamp for $200 million to gain 50 global regulatory licenses and institutional liquidity, rather than maintaining long-term vendor relationships. The article predicts that the next round of B2C expansion will present an 80/20 pattern: 80% of retail liquidity will be controlled by 3 to 5 Web2/fintech giants such as Visa, Stripe, Robinhood, PayPal, and BlackRock, providing compliance and fiat entry; 20% will be an unlicensed DeFi sandbox for validating initial product-market fit. The growth path for startups should be to first validate PMF in the DeFi sandbox, then integrate or sell to the few Web2 gateways controlling the 80% distribution layer. The article believes that the current protocol cancellations and wave of startup closures are part of a "necessary market cleanup."
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