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BTC $71,808.28 +1.68%
ETH $2,116.60 +2.02%
BNB $664.12 +1.79%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $466.94 +2.03%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

qe

Arthur Hayes warns: Invisible QE may restart, potentially triggering the next Bitcoin bull market

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published a lengthy article stating that the operations of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are brewing a "Stealth QE," which could become a core catalyst for a new round of increases in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Currently, U.S. government spending continues to expand, and political incentives determine that they are more inclined to issue debt rather than raise taxes.Foreign central banks are more inclined to buy gold rather than U.S. Treasuries due to the risk of having their dollar assets seized after the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. personal savings rate is insufficient to support the issuance of government bonds, while the four major commercial banks have only absorbed a small portion of the new debt. "Relative Value (RV) hedge funds" have become marginal buyers of U.S. Treasuries, primarily financing their purchases through repurchase agreements (repo).The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue about $2 trillion in new debt each year to cover the deficit. When market liquidity tightens and SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) exceeds the federal funds upper limit, the Federal Reserve injects cash directly into the market through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). This is equivalent to "de facto QE": printing money → lending → supporting the Treasury market.As the usage of the SRF increases, global dollar liquidity rises, and the actual effect is equivalent to QE. Hayes predicts that this will reignite the bull market cycle for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. "Whenever the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet, BTC goes up." Currently, during the U.S. government shutdown and Treasury auctions, liquidity is tightening in the short term, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market.Hayes advises investors to "preserve capital and wait for the opportunity," stating that the market will experience a strong rebound after the "Stealth QE" is initiated.
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