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According to Jinshi reports, the Iran war has restored the traditional relationship between the dollar and stock market volatility, with risk-averse investors flocking back to U.S. assets. Since the outbreak of the war, the positive correlation between the dollar and the fear index VIX has continued to strengthen, currently nearing its highest level since 2024. Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank, stated that if the situation in the Gulf region does not trigger a significant and sustained rebound in VIX, the dollar may further widen its decline.

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, requesting information regarding the potential national security risks associated with Bitmain, and expressing concerns about its business dealings with the Trump family.The letter requests the disclosure of communication records between Bitmain and Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. Reports indicate that the FBI is conducting an investigation named "Operation Red Sun" to assess whether there are risks of remote control related to the mining equipment. Previously, U.S. regulatory agencies have repeatedly questioned the safety of Bitmain's products. Bitmain responded that the related accusations are untrue, and American Bitcoin Corp stated that its safety tests found no issues.

CryptoQuant posted on social media that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.88, setting a new low.This means that the two show a strong negative correlation trend, with capital flowing into Bitcoin pushing its price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a slight decline.

10x Research posted on the X platform that the current price trend of Bitcoin is not primarily driven by negative news such as the Middle East conflict, but rather dominated by changes in market positioning structure.In the past two weeks, there has been a noticeable adjustment in the market positioning structure, and these changes are gradually encouraging traders to push Bitcoin towards the next phase of the market. A Bitcoin options trade proposed by the institution two weeks ago has now realized approximately +72% profit, and the technical structure continues to strengthen.Recently, the market has shown a series of attractive risk-reward signals. Although some traders are still puzzled by Bitcoin's resilience in the face of negative news, the market's sensitivity to news flow is currently decreasing, while the response to positioning, capital flow, and market structure is strengthening.By focusing on positioning, capital flow, and technical signals, rather than solely relying on news events, investors may be better positioned to judge the next moves of Bitcoin and make corresponding arrangements.

According to Jinshi citing CCTV news, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei delivered his first public speech on the 12th through national television.The speech mainly focused on domestic unity in Iran, external conflicts, regional relations, and mourning for the late leader Ali Khamenei. When discussing the current situation, Mojtaba Khamenei expressed gratitude to the Iranian military and the "Resistance Front" armed forces, stating that Iranian soldiers have prevented enemies from controlling or dividing Iran.He also stated that Iran will continue to adopt strategic measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts when necessary. In discussing the regional situation, he called on neighboring countries to close military bases used by the United States within their borders, and emphasized that Iran's targets for strikes are only related military facilities, not the countries themselves. He also stressed that Iran still hopes to maintain friendly relations with neighboring countries.

According to the macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019 shows that oil price trends exhibit a "two-phase" pattern: the first phase is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing reflects uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, on the fifth day of the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9%, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks in advance.The second phase is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when the 25-day inventory buffer of Gulf countries is exhausted, leading to forced production cuts. The historical average increase during this phase is 44%, with extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report notes that the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from a normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, and Gulf countries have only 25 days of buffer left. When the tank utilization rate reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, and oil prices will enter an accelerated phase of the "scarcity digestion period." If oil prices remain between $85 and $95, a CPI increase of 30-40 basis points is manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-$130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices exceed $180, CPI will rise by over 300 basis points, possibly triggering stagflation.Currently, Bitcoin maintains a correlation of over 0.9 with tech stocks. If oil prices remain above $110, a CPI rise to 3% and real interest rates exceeding 2.5% will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks, at which point the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may break, triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, inventory utilization rates in Gulf countries, CPI data on March 11, Federal Reserve guidance on March 18, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate exceeds 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows.

OpenAI founder Sam Altman released a content summary after the latest AMA. In response to what would happen if the U.S. government attempted to nationalize OpenAI or other AI projects, Sam Altman stated that he could not predict the outcome. While it may be more appropriate for the government to lead the development of AGI in the long term, nationalization does not seem highly likely given the current trajectory of development.However, he emphasized that establishing a close collaborative relationship between the government and AI companies is "extremely important." People often take the "assurances" regarding safety for granted, but they tend to underestimate the significant investment and effort required behind them. He believes this is generally a good thing, but more respect and understanding are still needed.

A Bank of America (BofA) survey in February showed that investors' bearish positions on the dollar have fallen to the lowest level since 2012, with dollar allocations at a historically low level.Traditionally, a weaker dollar is usually favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, but the report noted that since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the dollar index, with a 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.6 at one point. Analysts believe that if this correlation continues, further declines in the dollar may not be beneficial for Bitcoin and could instead put pressure on it; conversely, if the dollar rebounds due to short covering, Bitcoin may rise accordingly, and market volatility could significantly increase.

According to Xinhua News Agency, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.Trump stated that the United States and China are both great countries, and the U.S.-China relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. I have a great relationship with President Xi Jinping, and I have great respect for him. Under the leadership of President Xi and myself, the U.S. and China have had good interactions in areas such as trade and economics. I am pleased to see China's success, and the U.S. is willing to strengthen cooperation with China to promote new developments in the bilateral relationship.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated on the X platform that, contrary to the current mainstream view, BTC, ETH, Solana, and hyperliquid may be good options for diversified investments.Since the beginning of 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and gold prices has been low, at only 0.14. Gold has led Bitcoin in the last two Bitcoin bull markets.

PlanB posted on platform X that the current historical correlation between the $87,500 BTC, $6,900 stocks, and $4,500 gold is disconnected. A similar situation occurred when BTC prices were below $1,000, after which BTC prices increased tenfold. PlanB pointed out that there is also a possibility of the correlation being broken, and whether the current situation is different still needs time to verify.

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that last week's sell-off of AI concept stocks in the US stock market may have been due to sell-side analysts emotionally misreading comments from the CEO of Broadcom. This week, the AI sector has begun to rebound broadly, including Oracle, which is still weighed down by debt issues. This trend typically indicates the end of panic sentiment.Garrett Jin further noted that the correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq 100 index remains high, and the Nasdaq 100 index has fully recovered from the declines triggered by those "negative news," suggesting that ETH may also be poised for a rebound.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority Issues Risk Warning AgainThe Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has once again issued a risk warning, stating that a platform named "Hong Kong Yunbo Holdings/Yunbo Holdings 2.0" claims to have relevant cooperation with the HKMA. It falsely asserts that the HKMA, as a technical and financial guidance unit, provides the platform with an on-chain stablecoin framework, cross-border settlement model, and support for building a financial-grade node security system. The HKMA solemnly declares that it has no relationship with this platform and that the relevant platform is not regulated by the HKMA. Currently, no licenses have been issued to any stablecoin issuers. If anyone promotes stablecoins, the public must remain vigilant. If it is discovered that they are targets or victims of a scam, they should immediately contact the Hong Kong police or relevant authorities in the mainland.

Blockworks announced a partnership with Solana to launch the investor relations platform Lightspeed IR, which is designed for professional investors and token issuers.It is reported that Lightspeed IR is a closed professional environment suitable for: liquidity token funds, institutional allocators and asset managers, family offices, as well as Solana ecosystem teams and large token holders.Lightspeed IR will provide the following services: high-fidelity on-chain data accessible on the Solana network and leading applications, powered by Blockworks' data infrastructure; transforming raw on-chain activity into simple, foundational frameworks and institutional research memos for information and communication technology; ecosystem intelligence and investor relations workflows for roadmap updates, KPI packages, governance changes, token events, and direct communication between teams and allocators.

Bankless co-founder @RyanSAdams showcased a clip of an interview with Vitalik on X, where the host asked, "What do you think about the relationship between Ethereum and Wall Street?" Vitalik responded that Wall Street, in his opinion, are users. In Ethereum, we are "pro-users." Vitalik warned in his speech yesterday that if institutional ETH holdings continue to grow, Ethereum will face two major threats (loss of developers and pressure on the technical roadmap).