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GOOGL $322.04 -0.82%
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NVDA $211.51 -1.06%
TSLA $372.72 -0.66%
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Wintermute: Bitcoin faces a test at the $82,500 threshold, as AI risks and Federal Reserve policies may trigger volatility

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

first_img NEAR Intents released a post-mortem report, revealing that the $3.8 million vulnerability originated from a deposit notification flaw

The cross-chain exchange protocol NEAR Intents released a post-mortem report attributing a $3.8 million vulnerability to a flaw in the deposit notification feature. The protocol deploys a public settlement contract on NEAR that maintains an internal ledger of deposited tokens, while withdrawals transfer tokens out via a cross-chain bridge. The report was published by NEAR Intents General Manager Alex Shevchenko on October 16, stating that the attacker withdrew $3.8 million before the protocol was shut down on October 1 and returned all funds within 36 hours of detection, with all affected users fully compensated.The report indicates that the feature notifies third-party contracts when tokens are deposited. The attacker created a contract that intentionally caused the notification to fail, allowing the token contract to refund the deposit while NEAR Intents retained the corresponding ledger credit. Through 23 failed deposit transactions, the attacker accumulated $3.8 million in unsupported balance, referred to in the report as ghost funds, and subsequently withdrew real tokens based on this and transferred them to other chains via the Omni infrastructure. Shevchenko stated that this was a vulnerability in the NEAR Intents contract, not in the Omni infrastructure.Withdrawals occurred between September 29 and October 1. The settlement contract was paused and reopened on October 1, with affected routes gradually restored, and contract-side deposits resumed on October 2. The report noted that the vulnerability went undetected because monitoring only compared the original chain assets with the total balance of NEAR side tokens, without comparing the total internal user balances with the actual tokens held by the contract; the team has since added this check and will automatically pause the contract when there is a balance inconsistency. The fix for the October vulnerability was deployed on October 2, but another serious vulnerability report regarding the same feature prompted its complete removal on October 7, with the relevant researcher receiving a $300,000 reward.

The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the interest rate hike bets triggered fluctuations in gold and silver, with Gate XAG and XAU contracts maintaining a leading position in industry trading volume

The unresolved ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a rebound in crude oil prices, and the market's bets on another interest rate hike before the end of the year are heating up, putting pressure on the gold and silver markets once again. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAU) is currently priced at $4,183.22, with a 24-hour decline of 0.61%; silver (XAG) is currently priced at $60.25, with a 24-hour decline of 1.42%.During the market fluctuations, the trading volume of related contracts on Gate has continued to rise: the trading volume of Gate silver contracts reached $124 million in 24 hours, ranking second in the industry; the trading volume of Gate gold contracts reached $363 million in 24 hours, firmly holding third place in the industry; meanwhile, the open interest of Gate XAU gold contracts reached $411 million, ranking second in the industry.Gate has pioneered the trading sector for perpetual metal contracts and CFD contracts, covering mainstream metal trading targets such as gold, silver, and platinum, supporting 24/7 trading and USDT settlement. Relying on Gate's innovative unified account system, users can configure diverse assets such as stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities without cross-platform operations, helping users achieve a more flexible and efficient one-stop global asset strategy layout amid volatile markets.
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