The market has plummeted, should I dive in or obediently come ashore first?

Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Editor’s Note: After the market flash crash in April due to the war situation, the market has once again entered a "phase of darkest moments" ------ According to OKX market data, Bitcoin once dropped to $53,296, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 10%; Ethereum once fell to $2,806, with a 24-hour decline of over 10%. Such a significant drop is influenced by news such as the Mt. Gox billions in debt compensation, the continuous outflow of Bitcoin addresses from the German government, and the fact that Bitcoin prices have repeatedly broken through the shutdown price for miners, the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the liquidation of some Bitcoin and Ethereum whales.

In light of this, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of some research institutions and individuals in this article for readers' reference.

10x Research: What Should You Do During Bitcoin's Plunge?

As the market continues to decline, the well-known research institution 10x Research has once again published an article stating "I told you," here is a translated version of its content:

The market performance once again proves that 10x Research is the only major research company that predicted the price crash (Odaily Note: Of course, this is a typical self-praising expression of 10x) ------ When Bitcoin's price triggered at $67,300, we made a downward estimate. Even after the "Trump Effect" over the weekend (Odaily Note: Referring to the slight rise of Trump-related concepts and political meme coins relative to the overall market due to Trump's good performance in the U.S. election debate), we warned that this rebound was unsustainable and reiterated our estimated target prices for Bitcoin at $55,000 and $50,000 ------ Currently, the spot trading price of Bitcoin is $54,000, which has already dropped 20% compared to when we issued the warning signal.

Before Ethereum broke below $3,725, we mentioned in our report that the market might experience a chain liquidation, causing its price to retreat to the previous levels that had risen due to ETF expectations. These liquidations did not wait long, as last night's futures open interest sharply declined. Since the release of the related report on June 7, Ethereum has dropped 22%, and its current trading price is around $2,900.

It is worth noting that now is not the time to rush to buy the dip, but rather to sit back and let the bears continue to perform.

Meanwhile, many readers may have already prepared for this sell-off; although we prefer a bull market, sometimes locking in high profits is the right strategy.

There are always opportunities to make money in the crypto market, and our investment approach has once again proven ------ price trends can be predicted, and profits can be made whether prices rise or fall. Our research has been at the forefront of this decline. (Odaily Note: You understand the tone of 10x).

Crypto Analyst: Mixed Feelings with a Hint of Stubbornness

From the perspective of market cycles, crypto analyst Rekt Capital analyzed that "during the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak 518 days after the halving; during the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak 546 days after the halving. If history repeats itself, the price peak of the next bull market will occur between 518-546 days after the halving, which means Bitcoin may reach a new price peak around mid-September or mid-October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days in this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase lasting over 3 months, its acceleration rate has sharply declined to about 150 days. Generally, Bitcoin maintains a longer consolidation period after halving, and the effect of re-synchronizing with the traditional halving cycle will be better."

Cycle Structure Synchronization Theory

On the other hand, from the perspective of the long-term and short-term holder structure of Bitcoin, Cauê Oliveira, research director and on-chain analyst at BlockTrends, stated that novice investors are struggling and losing money. During the decline, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (purchased in the recent 3-6 months) was sold during the price drop. This selling pressure comes from individuals or organizations that bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, who may have intended to speculate on Bitcoin spot ETFs and events like the Bitcoin halving, but now may only be forced to exit. They may be classified as "long-term holders," but their actual performance resembles that of short-term investors, as they entered at relatively high levels at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, individuals or organizations holding for over a year have not engaged in more selling, indicating that true long-term holders are still continuing to HODL.

Transfer Amount of Bitcoin in 3-6 Months

Regarding specific long and short operations and whether to buy, the well-known crypto KOL il Capo of Crypto, who previously "firmly shorted" during the market's rise, expressed his belief in "holding firmly" this time. He stated, "The market's decline is indeed more brutal than expected. However, at this point of panic and selling among many, I do not think it is appropriate to turn bearish or choose to sell. Now is the time to 'broaden your perspective and stay calm.' One might make mistakes temporarily, but hold firmly. Time will prove everything."

Conclusion: Recognize the Situation and Give Up Fantasies

As senior author Fu wrote in the latest market article "Mt. Gox Crash Hits, BTC 24H Drops 10% Below $54,000, Where is the Bottom?" "The main reason for this round of market decline is the Mt. Gox sell-off, but the market may have exaggerated its impact."

Mr. Market can sometimes be slow, so slow that real news does not ferment immediately; but sometimes it is sensitive, sensitive enough to be like a startled bird, thinking "there's no turning back" at the slightest disturbance. However, the most significant factors influencing future market trends are the results of the U.S. elections and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Therefore, for market participants, including retail and institutional investors, the best choice now may be to shift from a "long-term mindset" to a "short-term mindset," focusing on operations within 6 hours, or even 4 hours, or 2 hours, leaning more towards trend trading, rather than getting overly caught up in the question of "whether Bitcoin and the overall market are in a bull market," which has no fixed answer.

In summary, it can be boiled down to 16 characters ------ recognize the situation, give up fantasies, engage in short-term operations, and wait for favorable news.