SignalPlus Volatility Column: BTC Experiences a Pullback Before Historical Highs, ETH Steadily Rises to Catch Up

Yesterday (6MAR), Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns in an article that a rapid rate cut could exacerbate price pressures, and further mentioned in a Q&A that he expects to remain on hold temporarily after the first rate cut to assess its impact. The three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower. In the bond market, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to interest rate policy, rose to 4.583%, while the ten-year yield fell to 4.188%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In the cryptocurrency market, BTC briefly expanded its gains to near an all-time high before encountering resistance and retracing about 3%, closing at 66638.05 (+4%); ETH maintained its upward momentum, continuing to challenge recent highs, closing at 3682.71 (+6.1%). In options, the implied volatility of both cryptocurrencies fluctuated significantly at high levels, with BTC 70000-C becoming a market trading hotspot. The market's FOMO sentiment drove a continuous emergence of bullish positions in the short term (8MAR/15MAR), while many of the orders for 29MAR were bearish, resulting in a relatively balanced overall buying and selling, forming a calendar spread. ETH's trading concentrated on the March 4000-C calls, with its steadily rising trend providing confidence for bullish trades, and compared to BTC, ETH still has considerable upside potential to its historical high (4800).

Source: Binance & TradingView, BTC faced resistance near ATH

Source: Deribit (as of 5MAR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol changes

Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution; 70000-C became a trading hotspot

Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution; March's 4000-C was heavily bought

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade