Key Indicators: (March 3, 4 PM -> March 10, 4 PM Hong Kong Time) BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview

• BTC to USD down 10.7% (92,200 USD -> 82,300 USD), ETH to USD down 14.8% (2,430 USD -> 2,070 USD)

BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview

• Due to a series of news and cryptocurrency-related events last week, market volatility remains high. Ultimately, the coin price failed to stabilize and continued to swing widely, with the downward support level at 79-73 thousand USD, while the upward resistance level is at 89-93 thousand USD.

• We once hoped that last week's bottoming and rapid rebound indicated the end of a long correction period, but the price movement has been disappointing. The resistance levels above the initial drop position include 95-96 thousand USD, followed by 100-102 thousand USD, and finally 110 thousand USD. If the price falls below 73 thousand USD, it may retrace to 65-67.5 thousand USD, after which the price movement will become more complex than currently expected overall upward trend. We still maintain a mid-term bullish view, but in the absence of strong upward momentum, the timeline may be further extended.

Market Themes

• The reimplementation of U.S. tariffs has reignited fears of a global trade war, causing the VIX index to rise from 20 to 26 points. At the same time, defense spending in Europe and Germany has triggered a sell-off of German bonds, which has spread to Japanese bonds, UK bonds, and U.S. Treasuries, further complicating the entire risk market. It seems the Trump administration is very eager to lower long-term interest rates and refinancing costs to alleviate economic conditions, although achieving this goal may lead to further sell-offs and capital withdrawal from U.S. risk assets. The non-farm payroll data appears slightly weak, and this trend may continue under the pressure from DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency).

• Back to cryptocurrency, the price rebound triggered by Trump's tweet was merely a flash in the pan. Pressure from U.S. stocks triggered a significant reversal in the coin price from 95 thousand USD a week ago, dropping to 81-82 thousand USD. Subsequently, with U.S. stocks climbing from the bottom and optimistic sentiment from the cryptocurrency summit on Friday, the coin price found support here. On Thursday night, Trump signed an executive order announcing the use of held Bitcoin for cryptocurrency reserves. Although this news suggests no further buying, which is disappointing, it is still a step in the right direction for Bitcoin (no mention of other tokens). After the market sentiment recovered on Friday night, the coin price briefly touched the resistance level of 90-91 thousand USD, but after the summit with no new news, the market continued to test downward. During the low liquidity period on Sunday night, Bitcoin was sold off to below 80 thousand USD, Ethereum fell below 2 thousand USD, and Solana dropped below 125 USD.

BTC Implied Volatility

• Although implied volatility fluctuated significantly during the week, it ultimately remained basically unchanged week over week. The implied volatility squeeze before the cryptocurrency summit raised the overnight volatility pricing to a peak of 5%. Very high actual volatility also supported the implied volatility increase before the summit. However, after the meeting with no new news and a very restrained price movement, implied volatility became oversold, briefly selling to 47 for the March 14 expiration, and then sharply rebounding after the coin price was sold off on Sunday.

• Actual volatility remains at levels above 50 to 60, at recent highs, as the market continues to seek balance within a new range. Although we expect the market to continue to experience localized volatility in the coming days, considering the current market positions are cleaner, we believe actual volatility will return to the mid-40s level later this week.

BTC Skew/Kurtosis

• The skew for short-term expiration dates is tilted downward. This is because the price decline at high levels is more severe compared to the price increase (except for the time when Trump tweeted). On the longer-term curve, the skew has turned upward starting from April and May, as structurally the market is unwilling to deploy positions below the coin price.

• Although kurtosis ended the week basically unchanged, the changes during the week were quite drastic and highly correlated with price movements. However, since the price remains in localized volatility and most players are using call or put spread options to position directional trades, we can see that the weight on the wings of the smile curve has been pulled down, causing a short-term decline in kurtosis, but we recommend holding the wings for protection.