Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: Saylor Claims Selling BTC to Pay Dividends is a "Big Nothingburger," Strategy Financial Flywheel Model Undergoes Strictest Scrutiny

What Saylor Said and Why the Market Dropped and Then Rebounded

Michael Saylor stated during the Q1 earnings call on May 5: "We may sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, just to vaccinate the market and convey the message that we have done so." This statement represents a 180-degree shift from his long-held position of "never selling." On the same day, MSTR dropped over 4% in after-hours trading, and Bitcoin subsequently fell below $81,000. Saylor later provided the full context in a CoinDesk interview on May 11: if the company fully covers its annual dividend obligations through the sale of Bitcoin, the amount involved is approximately $3 million (estimated based on the market price at that time), which is "completely negligible" compared to Bitcoin's daily market liquidity of $20 billion to $50 billion; meanwhile, for every 1 BTC sold by the company, it will simultaneously purchase about 20 more through ATM financing and STRC preferred stock issuance, making the net effect close to "buying 20 and not selling any holdings." This explanation is mathematically sound, but it reveals a deeper structural issue: the flywheel of the Strategy can continue to operate only if the premium of MSTR's stock price relative to its BTC holdings (mNAV) is sufficiently high, allowing ATM financing to issue shares at a price significantly above the net asset value of BTC.

The Critical Point of the Flywheel: mNAV Compression and the $75,537 Cost Line

As of May 3, Strategy currently holds 818,334 BTC, with a total purchase cost of approximately $6.18 billion and an average price of $75,537; the annual preferred stock dividend obligation is about $1.5 billion (STRK pays an 8% dividend, STRC pays about 10-11.5%); the company has about 18 months of dividend reserve coverage and has established a reserve fund of approximately $2.2 billion. The bottom line for the strategy is: the company will only truly face financial difficulties if Bitcoin trades below $8,000 for an extended period—CEO Phong Le made this clear during the earnings call. The key risk is not Bitcoin dropping to $8,000, but rather Bitcoin trading sideways near the $75,537 cost line for an extended period, leading to a continuous compression of the mNAV premium. Analysts warn that if MSTR's adjusted net asset value premium compresses further towards 1.0x from its current level, ATM financing will lose its dilution advantage, and the flywheel logic of "buying 20 for every 1 sold" will not be able to maintain its current operating speed. Recent data shows that Bitcoin fell from $82,500 to $74,305 over the past two weeks, briefly dropping below the cost line, while Strategy's stock price faced significant pressure during the same period—this is the clearest real-time demonstration of the flywheel's fragility.

The "Counterexample" of Trump Media: When the Flywheel Has No Flywheel

In the same week, Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: $DJT) transferred 2,650 BTC to Crypto.com, contrasting sharply with the flywheel logic of Strategy. DJT purchased 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,522 (total cost of about $1.37 billion), and the current average price is about 35% below the cost; the company does not have a Strategy-like ATM financing flywheel and cannot dilute costs through continuous financing—its only source of capital is a one-time $2.3 billion stock and convertible bond fundraising completed in 2025, which has essentially been exhausted during the purchase of Bitcoin. This means that DJT's Bitcoin reserve strategy is essentially a one-time bet, lacking the capital replenishment mechanism that Strategy uses to address holding losses. The fundamental difference between the two models is: Strategy is "continuously financed rolling purchases," while DJT is "a one-time bet waiting for a rebound"—the former self-reinforces in a bull market and slows down but does not break in a bear market; the latter shows significant floating profits in a bull market but faces limited response space in a bear market.

This Week's PCE Data is the Key Variable for Whether the Flywheel Can Restart Acceleration

The movement of Bitcoin from $82,500 to $74,305 and then rebounding to around $77,000 over two weeks reveals the current market environment for the Strategy flywheel: it is not collapsing, but it is also not accelerating. The core macro variable this week is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator—the PCE data (to be released on Thursday): if the PCE is below expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations will be brought forward, providing macro liquidity tailwinds for Bitcoin and crypto concept stocks; if it is above expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will rise again, further suppressing the mNAV premium and MSTR's financing ability. Meanwhile, the timeline for the CLARITY Act to receive 60 votes in the Senate is approaching—if the bill completes a full Senate vote in June, it will provide final legal endorsement for the commodity attributes of BTC held by Strategy, combined with the macro tailwind from the PCE, making it the strongest dual catalyst combination for restarting the acceleration of the Strategy flywheel.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto concept stock information database, based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.