Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: Strategy MSTR Falls Below $100, STRC Trades at a 21% Discount to Par Value — Saylor's Bitcoin Flywheel is Undergoing the Harshest Stress Test of 2026

Triple Pressure Synchronization: Price, Dividends, and Market Trust

The challenges currently faced by Strategy are not due to a single factor, but rather a synchronization of triple pressures: First, BTC price: $59,000 is about 22% lower than the company's average price of $75,641, resulting in an overall unrealized loss of approximately $14.1 billion on 847,363 BTC; all BTC purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 are currently in a loss position, and each coin would incur an actual loss if closed today. Second, dividend pressure: CryptoQuant reports that the company's annual preferred stock dividend obligation has expanded from about $300 million to approximately $1.2 billion (accumulated across multiple series such as STRK, STRC, STRD), while USD reserves have decreased from $2.25 billion at the beginning of the year to about $1.1 billion currently, with the dividend coverage period plummeting from over 7 years to about 14 months; the company has also used $150 million for the repurchase of convertible bonds due in 2029, further depleting liquidity reserves. Third, the market trust crisis: a 21% discount on STRC indicates visible cracks in market confidence regarding the repayment of Strategy's preferred stock at face value. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju publicly compared Saylor's purchasing behavior to "always buying at local highs," noting that the company has accumulated $46.7 billion in purchases since 2024, while the BTC spot price has only dropped about 1% during the same period—"buying has not pushed up prices, it has merely absorbed selling pressure."

Three Recommendations from CryptoQuant: Pause Purchases, Model Framework, Top Selling

In its analysis report on June 24, CryptoQuant proposed three specific recommendations, representing the current most authoritative third-party diagnosis of Strategy's capital structure: Recommendation one, pause Bitcoin purchases until USD reserves are rebuilt to about $2.8 billion (covering 24 months of dividends), at which point STRC is expected to restore its face value, and financing capabilities will subsequently recover; Recommendation two, establish a systematic quantitative purchasing framework to replace Saylor's market sentiment-driven purchases, in order to reduce the systemic risk of "always buying at highs"; Recommendation three, establish a disciplined selling framework for the next bull market peak—"selling a portion near cycle peaks does not mean giving up Bitcoin, but rather deleveraging, realizing shareholder value, and creating ammunition for subsequent low-level accumulation." These three recommendations face significant obstacles from Strategy's internal logic: pausing purchases would undermine Saylor's long-established narrative of "holding firm," while establishing a selling framework directly contradicts his public stance of "never selling."

$10.5 Billion Options Expiring Today: Does Max Pain at $74,000 Constitute a Strong Rebound Trigger?

Today (June 26), approximately $10.5 billion in Bitcoin options are expiring, with the maximum pain point (max pain) at $74,000, far above the current spot price of about $59,000. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that "max pain at $74,000 is a distracting number"—in the current environment of extreme fear (index 18), the short-term price thrust effect of options expiration is limited, and market makers' gamma hedging pressure is mainly concentrated in the $60,000 to $65,000 range. However, after the options expiration, if short positions are not rolled over, some short-selling pressure will be released, providing short-term technical rebound space for BTC. For Strategy, if BTC rises to $62,000 to $64,000 after today's options expiration, it will increase the book value of its 847,363 BTC by approximately $2.5 billion to $4.2 billion, while also providing technical support for STRC to rebuild market confidence.

New Opposition Forces to the CLARITY Act, Greater Uncertainty Facing July 4 Target

Amid the crisis at Strategy and the Bitcoin bear market, the legislative process of the CLARITY Act encountered new resistance yesterday: about 100 U.S. Catholic bishops and church leaders jointly sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, representing the "Alliance to End Human Trafficking (AEHT)" opposing certain provisions of the CLARITY Act, arguing that one provision would "weaken federal safeguards against human trafficking and financial crimes." This marks the emergence of a third organized opposition force following banking lobby groups (ABA/BPI/ICBA) and some Democratic senators—these three types of opposition voices create a voting pressure that cannot be ignored in the face of the 60-vote threshold. With only 8 days left until the July 4 target, and the Senate's actual workable days (excluding weekends) now less than 5 working days, achieving a procedural breakthrough before this weekend becomes crucial—if a commitment of 60 votes cannot be secured by next Monday, the July 4 target will become nominal, and hopes will only be for a quick restart after the National Day holiday.

Data Source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency Concept Stock Information Database, compiled based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.