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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan published an analysis, stating that the crypto market is showing signs of a bottom ------ since July 1, Bitcoin has risen by 9% while the Nasdaq has fallen by 6%, ETF fund flows have turned positive, and market sentiment has improved. Hougan believes that the next bull market will be driven by the integration of on-chain finance and traditional finance, with the core sectors being stablecoins, tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and institutional DeFi.He suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: one type is crypto-native applications represented by Hyperliquid (HYPE) ------ which have real revenue and a strong token economic model (99% of revenue is used for buybacks and burns of HYPE), which has risen 146% this year; the other type is traditional financial institutions represented by Robinhood (HOOD) ------ whose Layer2 blockchain Robinhood Chain attracted over $300 million in deposits within two weeks of launch, processing an average of 3.6 million transactions daily, supporting 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks for users in 120 countries. Hougan is optimistic about mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as crypto stocks, while also paying attention to institutions like Coinbase, Figure, BlackRock, Visa, Stripe, and JPMorgan that are scaling up in the crypto space.

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, stated that there are currently two main viewpoints in the market regarding when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the "four-year cycle," and the other views Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors. The "four-year cycle" viewpoint holds that the halving event remains the core driving factor of the Bitcoin price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin typically bottoms about a year after the cycle peak and approximately 2.5 years after the halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of about 80%. According to this pattern, Bitcoin may still decline further this time and form a bottom in September or October.The other viewpoint suggests that Bitcoin prices will be influenced more by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, similar to other major assets. In past Bitcoin bear markets, there has usually been a slowdown in economic growth or an increase in real interest rates, and this decline is also occurring against a backdrop of rising interest rate expectations and increasing real rates. Pandl indicated that he aligns more with the macro-driven perspective. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin prices may have already bottomed.

Famous trader Killa posted that Bitcoin's historical bear markets typically complete a 5-wave adjustment and form two significant peaks. The first peak often occurs after the initial major rebound following the top, known as the "complacency peak," where the market generally believes that the bull market has returned. Subsequently, prices usually continue to decline to new lows. He pointed out that similar structures appeared in the cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026.After the complacency peak is formed, the market typically experiences a "dead cat bounce" and establishes a phase bottom; as market sentiment deteriorates and short positions concentrate, a short squeeze then drives the price rebound, with the final bottom usually forming after the second significant retest.Killa believes that BTC has currently swept through the bottom formed by the "dead cat bounce" and completed a 5-wave adjustment structure similar to previous cycles. From a structural perspective, the adjustment wave has ended, and the bottom may have already formed. However, he remains cautious about the time cycle. Previous bear markets typically lasted about 365 days before forming the final bottom, while this round, if the bottom has already appeared, has only lasted about 260 days, which is about 100 days earlier than the historical cycle. Currently, he maintains a 50-50 judgment, but compared to significantly making new lows, the likelihood of forming higher lows subsequently is greater.

Analyst Noname tweeted that Bitcoin will not hit bottom this quarter. Sideways fluctuations indicate indecision; at this price level, indecision often leads to a downward breakout first, followed by an upward breakout. At least one more quarter is needed for the market to clarify.His predictions for the trend in 2026 are as follows: July: False stability. Bear market trap rebound. The market reshuffles and eliminates the indecisive. August: The real crash begins. First test of the $50,000 area. September: Continued pressure. W-shaped bottom structure begins to form. October: The real bottom. Accumulation area. Personally, I will adopt an aggressive strategy at this stage. November: Signs of recovery appear, and the bottom rebound begins. December: The first breakthrough of the $100,000 mark since the bear market began.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that data shows Bitcoin is currently building significant support in the range of $59,000 to $70,000, which has also become one of the most fiercely defended price ranges in Bitcoin's history.Currently, about 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has changed hands above $59,000. If we exclude millions of Bitcoins that are considered permanently lost, this percentage will increase further. The main drivers of this round of turnover are short-term holders, and the behavior of market participants is becoming polarized, with some investors choosing to panic sell while others continue to accumulate.

ARK Invest released the Q2 2026 Bitcoin report stating that Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below the realized price for short-term holders, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain average, with the technical outlook remaining bearish. However, the proportion of loss supply rose to about 54%, and the supply of long-term holders increased to a historical high of about 14.85 million BTC, which ARK views as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to the on-chain cost range of about $49,000 to $53,000, and the downside risk has not been fully released; the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in Q2 was about 71,000 BTC, and the preferred stock of Strategy, STRC, fell to a minimum of $74.57.

According to Cointelegraph, renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt posted that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures (NQ) may form a "diamond" pattern, or may have already formed a market top.In addition, Peter Brandt recently predicted in an interview that Bitcoin might first rebound by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000, and form a bottom in early October 2026.Brandt issued a warning based on Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns, pointing out that Bitcoin may experience a false breakout, with the current Bitcoin price fluctuating around $60,000, facing short-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, expecting the coin price to reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

Glassnode data shows that buyers who have held Bitcoin for 1-2 years have realized losses, which may indicate the bottom of the bear market in 2026, with $69,000 becoming a key price battleground.

David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, stated that Bitcoin's current trend faces two possible paths: sideways consolidation or a final round of panic selling.He believes that Bitcoin is more likely to enter a sideways consolidation phase, with the bottom having basically appeared.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, a report from NYDIG shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year, performing the worst among various assets, lagging behind U.S. Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc. The report points out that the current slump is due to supply mechanisms rather than risk sentiment, and the timing and structure of the pullback in 2025-2026 are increasingly resembling the adjustment years of 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the 2022 model is fully replicated, the cycle low could be around $38,000-$39,000.However, Bitcoin experienced its lowest volatility year on record in 2025, and some analysts believe this year's pullback may be shallower than in previous bear markets. In Q2 2026, the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold increased, with both assets facing sell-offs, and the "devaluation trade" losing momentum. Bitwise stated last week that despite Bitcoin being in the deepest and longest slump since the last bear market, the fundamentals have laid the groundwork for a rapid recovery. NYDIG referred to the CLARITY Act as "the most important forward-looking catalyst for the digital asset industry."

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

Coinbase Institutional stated that U.S. non-farm employment was far below expectations, but the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has brought inflation risks back into focus for the market. The market is shifting towards pricing "higher interest rates for a longer duration," financial conditions are tightening further, long-term risk assets are under pressure, and the probability of another interest rate hike within the year is also increasing.Amid multiple negative factors, BTC only fell by about 2%, and this relatively resilient performance may indicate that the market is undergoing a bottoming process.

According to CoinDesk, Jurien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin is approaching the bottom support line of its "power law model" constructed based on the complete price history of Bitcoin. This long-term support level is currently around $58,000, while the current price of Bitcoin is approximately $62,700, gradually nearing this area, or may have already entered the "accumulation zone" defined by the model.However, Jurien Timmer did not confirm that the market has bottomed out, but believes that Bitcoin may not experience a rapid rebound immediately. Instead, it is expected to fluctuate around the long-term support line for several months. Short-term capital has previously exited, and the flow of funds has rotated from Bitcoin to gold, and then from gold to the semiconductor sector. Currently, the market's pursuit of hot sectors is still mainly concentrated in the semiconductor field.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that Bitcoin has been continuously operating below the real market average and the cost basis of short-term holders for the past five months, remaining in a deep value range. This indicates that while the market bottoming process is progressing, it has not yet been completed.On-chain data shows that long-term holders' realized losses account for 43% of the total realized value, with the recent daily average realized loss peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not significantly eased.