Goldman Sachs: Inflation pressures in the U.S. are spreading, and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is facing pressure to raise interest rates
According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' latest research report shows that inflationary pressures in the United States are spreading from a few industries to a broader range of sectors. Although the current inflation level has not yet reached the peak of 2022, the coverage of rising prices is expanding, posing greater challenges for Federal Reserve policy. Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels analyzed the degree of inflation diffusion based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve focuses on, using a six-month annualized change rate.The data shows that compared to the average inflation level from 1990 to 2019, the pressure index for inflation categories exceeding 3% has reached about "6," while this index was "10" at the peak of inflation in 2022.The report points out that areas such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become significant sources of current price increases. Meanwhile, housing rent inflation, which has a high weight in the PCE, is expected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially becoming an important factor in alleviating inflationary pressures.Goldman Sachs' analysis resonates with the recent concerns of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh regarding the "diffusion" of inflation. Warsh stated that preventing price increases from spreading to more sectors of the economy is an important task for the Federal Reserve. However, unlike the more explicit policy communication style of former Chairman Powell, Warsh currently refuses to provide specific guidance on interest rate paths.Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, stated that the Federal Reserve is reducing its forward guidance to the market, and this policy uncertainty has increased concerns on Wall Street. Meanwhile, hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are rising. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan has expressed support for moderate interest rate hikes, believing that the current economic resilience does not match the inflation risks.