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Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

SkyAI faces pressure from major shareholders to hold accountable for SOL's liquidation decision, while Korea's Meritz Securities partners with Optimism to explore tokenized infrastructure

According to BBX data, yesterday global publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market and mainstream financial institutions disclosed the latest developments in the disposal of crypto asset treasury, corporate governance accountability, and Layer 2 security tokenization cooperation. The core information is as follows:Shareholder Bastion Trading, holding approximately 9.99% of SkyAI shares, issued a statement pressuring for accountability regarding the liquidation of SOL and demanding a board restructuring: Major shareholder Bastion Trading, which holds approximately 9.99% of the NASDAQ-listed company SkyAI (NASDAQ: $SKYA), officially released a statement requesting that SkyAI's Executive Chairman Paul K. Danner III and three directors Soren Bo Christiansen, Timothy J. Ruemler, and Jason L. Monroe publicly explain their specific roles in evaluating, approving the takeover offer, and overseeing the complete liquidation of SOL, including who authorized and supervised the liquidation, reviewed the timing of the transaction, execution methods, counterparties, and transaction costs.Meritz Securities of South Korea signs MOU with Optimism Foundation to explore tokenized financial asset clearing based on OP Stack: South Korea's mainstream financial institution Meritz Securities announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Optimism Foundation. The two parties will jointly study the issuance, clearing, and distribution framework of tokenized financial assets based on OP Mainnet and other OP Stack networks, deeply exploring the commercial viability of using Ethereum public Layer 2 as a financial-grade distribution and clearing infrastructure. Meritz Securities stated that it will focus on exploring tokenized financial products based on high-quality local assets within the legal and licensing compliance framework, and will promote implementation in conjunction with the progress of South Korea's security token offering (STO) regulations. Previously, KB Securities and DB Securities in South Korea have also successively accessed the OP Stack ecosystem to explore related tokenization businesses.

Analyst: During the decline of BTC, long-term holders transferring to exchanges remained low, and the selling pressure from short-term holders weakened

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that during the recent decline of BTC, the scale of short-term holders (STH) transferring BTC to exchanges has significantly increased, averaging about 2,200 BTC transferred per hour over a 4-hour period, reaching the fourth highest level since the market rally began in August this year. However, the peak of transfers has fallen below that of October 8, indicating that the potential selling pressure from short-term holders has weakened.In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) transferred an average of only about 480 BTC to exchanges per hour during the same period, which is about one-fifth of the short-term holders. Murphy pointed out that on October 8, long-term holders experienced a peak transfer of about 3,700 BTC per hour, which may be partly related to asset transfers triggered by security incidents involving hardware wallets. However, considering that both short-term and long-term holders experienced large-scale transfers that day, and the rapid decline in BTC prices, there remains actual selling pressure in the market. Murphy believes that during the current decline, the main transfers to exchanges are from short-term holders, while long-term holders remain relatively stable overall, and the intensity of transfers from short-term holders has weakened compared to before, reflecting that the structure of BTC holders still has a certain resilience.

Analyst: The turnover of long-term holders of BTC has increased, and the release of phase selling pressure may reduce resistance for subsequent price increases

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on platform X that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin have cumulatively transferred approximately 32,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since the significant drop on February 5 of this year. However, during the same period, U.S. government-related wallets transferred about 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Considering that this platform serves as the official custodian and trading service for the U.S. Marshals Service, these transfers do not necessarily indicate selling.Excluding this portion, the noteworthy potential selling pressure is approximately 14,800 BTC, primarily coming from long-term holdings aged 6 to 12 months and 3 to 5 years. Murphy pointed out that the average coin age of spent long-term holder coins reached 712 days, up from 651 days on July 14, indicating that earlier holdings are gradually participating in turnover. He believes that the distribution by long-term holders during the transition phase between bull and bear markets is not necessarily bearish; the release of periodic selling pressure can help in the redistribution of holdings, with the key being whether market demand can effectively absorb it. If new funds can digest the supply, sufficient turnover may actually reduce resistance for subsequent market movements.
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