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BTC $78,066.35 -2.86%
ETH $2,172.35 -3.56%
BNB $651.64 -4.47%
XRP $1.40 -4.05%
SOL $86.05 -5.47%
TRX $0.3512 -0.19%
DOGE $0.1093 -4.34%
ADA $0.2533 -4.87%
BCH $415.91 -3.47%
LINK $9.68 -5.65%
HYPE $41.24 -8.93%
AAVE $88.38 -7.80%
SUI $1.04 -7.22%
XLM $0.1508 -4.79%
ZEC $491.21 -8.26%
BTC $78,066.35 -2.86%
ETH $2,172.35 -3.56%
BNB $651.64 -4.47%
XRP $1.40 -4.05%
SOL $86.05 -5.47%
TRX $0.3512 -0.19%
DOGE $0.1093 -4.34%
ADA $0.2533 -4.87%
BCH $415.91 -3.47%
LINK $9.68 -5.65%
HYPE $41.24 -8.93%
AAVE $88.38 -7.80%
SUI $1.04 -7.22%
XLM $0.1508 -4.79%
ZEC $491.21 -8.26%

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Analysis: The cryptocurrency market is cautious ahead of the U.S. April CPI release, with XRP and SOL once again facing key resistance levels

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Glassnode: BTC breaks through key cost zone, $85,000 becomes the next key resistance level

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has broken through the real market average ($78,200) and the cost price for short-term holders ($79,100). If it can maintain this range for the next week, the "deep value phase" since 2026 may become the shortest in Bitcoin's history.The next key resistance level in the current market is around $85,200. On-chain data shows that the 30-day net realized profit and loss average has turned positive to 0.003% of the market cap, and long-term holders have realized profits rising to $180 million daily, but this is still significantly lower than the over $1 billion level during the peak of this cycle.However, the market has realized losses still amounting to $479 million daily, which is 140% higher than the stable range of this cycle. Glassnode believes that it needs to continuously fall below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery.In terms of capital, the 30-day net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has turned positive again, indicating that institutional demand is recovering. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative during the upward process, suggesting that market short positions are still heavy. If shorts continue to be squeezed, it may further drive prices up.Additionally, there is a concentration of about $2 billion in "Short Gamma" positions around $82,000, and market makers' hedging behavior may amplify price volatility. Glassnode believes that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains strong, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase. If there is a lack of sustained spot buying support, there may be significant selling pressure around $85,000.

Berkshire's cash reserves surged to a record $397 billion, while U.S. stock valuations reached historically high levels during the same period

In the first quarter of Greg Abel's tenure as CEO, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves surged to a record high of $397 billion. At the end of last year, the company's cash reserves had slightly decreased, but they increased significantly in the first quarter due to a net sale of $8.1 billion in stocks during the period.Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway A (BRK.A.N) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $93.675 billion, compared to $89.725 billion in the same period last year, with market expectations of $89.274 billion; net profit was $10.106 billion, compared to $4.603 billion in the same period last year, with market expectations of $11.762 billion. The fair value of fixed-income securities held by Berkshire Hathaway at the end of Q1 2026 reached $17.669 billion, compared to $17.816 billion in the same period last year.Buffett has always viewed cash as "a necessary but undesirable asset," often likening it to oxygen, which is crucial for businesses but not a good investment in itself. Buffett repeatedly emphasizes that Berkshire will never prefer holding cash equivalents over quality businesses; cash is merely a war chest waiting for "super good opportunities." When market valuations are too high and there are no attractive investment targets, he prefers to hoard cash rather than force a purchase; but once a great opportunity arises, he will deploy this ammunition without hesitation. In Buffett's view, cash can provide safe returns in a high-interest-rate environment, but in the long run, it is far less valuable than investing in excellent companies.While Berkshire's cash holdings reach a new high, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently hitting historical highs, there are still multiple risk hazards behind the market, and valuations are in a historically high range. Data shows that as of April, the rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 24 times (historical average is about 16 times), and the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio (cyclically adjusted) has risen to over 37 times, at a historically high level, second only to the internet bubble period. This combination of "valuation + high expectations" means that the market has very limited room for error. Furthermore, the current rise in U.S. stocks is built on optimistic assumptions such as "AI-driven profits, falling inflation, declining interest rates, and controllable risks," and any deviation in these variables could trigger amplified shocks in the market.
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