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According to monitoring by Lookonchain, trader Garrett Jin deposited a total of 577,717 ETH to Binance between May 6 and May 10, with a total value of approximately 1.35 billion dollars calculated at the average price of 2,337 dollars at that time. After completing the large transfer, ETH began a continuous correction trend, and subsequently, the price dropped by more than 20%. Based on the current price of approximately 1,840 dollars, the value of the ETH transferred out has decreased by about 290 million dollars compared to when the transfer was made.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

According to BusinessInsider, billionaire investor and hedge fund founder of Third Point, Dan Loeb, stated in a podcast that current market concerns about the "bubble theory" of artificial intelligence (AI) are greatly exaggerated, and the development stage of the AI industry is completely different from that of the internet bubble period.Loeb pointed out that technology giants, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, have collectively exceeded $700 billion in capital expenditures this year, which may reach $1 trillion next year, with the vast majority allocated for AI infrastructure development. He stated that to believe these capital expenditures will not yield returns is equivalent to thinking that companies are "burning money for no reason," but currently, these companies have strong profitability and ample cash flow, allowing them to support investments with their own balance sheets.Loeb emphasized that this is different from the situation during the internet bubble when "valuations detached from fundamentals," and does not constitute a traditional valuation bubble. He also mentioned that AI companies like Anthropic are experiencing rapid revenue growth and accelerated product applications, indicating that the industry is still in the early stages of expansion.Reports indicate that Anthropic's latest financing valuation is nearing $965 billion, with annualized revenue jumping from $14 billion to $47 billion, further strengthening market confidence in the commercialization potential of AI.However, there are still some investors in the market, including Michael Burry, who express concerns about the overheated valuations of AI, believing that massive investments may struggle to yield corresponding returns. Loeb, on the other hand, stated, "We haven't even scratched the surface of AI development," and believes that we are still in the early stages of long-term growth.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, which is an important signal indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero axis, every rebound of BTC still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and VIX volatility index. The core idea is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.In addition, CryptoQuant has added a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution among various ETFs. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it indicates that U.S. buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its movement may lack genuine support from U.S. demand.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, Harvard Management Company first established a position in cryptocurrency during the market rise in the second quarter of 2025; in the third quarter, when the BTC price approached historical highs, it significantly increased its holdings, with the number of shares increasing by 257%. IBIT once accounted for 20% of its holdings, making it its largest public position; during the market pullback in the fourth quarter, it reduced its BTC holdings while establishing a position in ETH, clearing all ETH after holding it for only one quarter and exiting at a loss.Its BTC acquisition cost ranged from $107,000 to $114,000, and the ETH acquisition cost was $4,000, resulting in a loss of over $150 million in the cryptocurrency sector within a year.

On-chain analyst Darkfost stated that the current loss amount of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) has reached 5.7 million coins, comparable to the bear market peak levels of 5.96 million in 2015, 5.8 million in 2019, and 6.8 million in 2022. Nevertheless, the current BTC price has dropped about 52% from its historical high, far lower than previous bear market declines, indicating that the losses are mainly concentrated among younger LTH groups, possibly due to a large number of transactions in the $80,000-$125,000 range.

Market analyst Ali posted on platform X that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of "overheating." Data shows that the average realized profit margin for traders has risen to 17%, indicating that a large number of investors are in a significantly profitable state, and potential profit-taking pressure is increasing. The last time a similar situation occurred was in March 2022, when Bitcoin was testing the resistance level of the 200-day moving average, and the average profit margin also reached 17%. Subsequently, the market formed a phase top and re-entered a downward trend. This historical signal has appeared again, warranting high vigilance from the market.

Market analyst Ali posted on platform X that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of "overheating." Data shows that the average realized profit margin for traders has risen to 17%, indicating that a large number of investors are in a significantly profitable state, and potential profit-taking pressure is increasing.The last time a similar situation occurred was in March 2022, when Bitcoin was testing the resistance level of the 200-day moving average, and the average profit margin also reached 17%. Subsequently, the market formed a phase top and re-entered a downward trend. This historical signal has appeared again, warranting high vigilance from the market.

According to Bitget market data, preOPAI reached a high of $807.92 after its launch, currently reported at $791.03, with a 24-hour increase of 9.08% and a 24-hour trading volume of 3.9076 million USDT.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) experienced an unrealized loss of 15% at the beginning of April, while in previous deep bear markets, this indicator exceeded 75%. This indicates that despite the recent significant pullback in Bitcoin, the pressure faced by long-term holders is only a small fraction of historical cycle lows, and their belief in holding has not been tested to the same extent.

Blockchain analysis company Elliptic has completed a new round of financing of $120 million at a valuation of $670 million, led by One Peak Partners, with participation from Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq's venture capital division, and British Business Bank, while existing shareholders like JPMorgan Chase continue to invest.Founded in 2013, Elliptic provides cryptocurrency transaction monitoring and anti-money laundering, sanctions compliance tools for financial institutions and law enforcement agencies. Currently, the company screens over 1 billion transactions weekly for more than 700 clients to support the compliance operations required for large banks, asset management firms, and fintech companies to conduct digital asset business.

According to GMGN monitoring, the Base ecosystem token POD (dphn.ai) saw a significant increase in market value this morning, peaking over $170 million, currently reported at $130 million, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 82%, and a trading volume of $6.3 million during the same period.It is reported that dphn.ai is an AI model development and DePIN project, and the "Dolphin Mistral 24B Venice Edition" it provides is the default uncensored AI model on the Venice platform. Previously, during the surge of VVV, POD rose as it served as a core model provider. This increase may also be compounded by the influence of Base co-founder Jesse's retweet, with related sentiment continuing to ferment.

According to GMGN market information, the market capitalization of the Ethereum ecosystem token uPEG briefly fell below 8 million USD, currently reported at 8.2 million USD, with a 24-hour drop of over 31%, and a 24-hour trading volume reaching 4.8 million USD, down over 75% from the 34 million USD peak.Unipeg (token uPEG) focuses on on-chain objects built with Uniswap V4 Hooks. Each transaction can automatically generate a unique 24×24 SVG pixel art unicorn image in real-time, without the need for artists or minting, entirely driven by on-chain mechanisms.ChainCatcher reminds users that the price fluctuations of related tokens are significant, and users should invest with caution.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the surge in energy inflation has not yet peaked.

According to GMGN monitoring, the price of the Meme coin SCAM on the Solana chain has plummeted 88% in 24 hours, with its market value dropping from a peak of nearly 20 million USD to around 1.43 million USD currently, and a 24-hour trading volume of 33.6 million USD.ChainCatcher reminds users that Meme coins generally have no practical use cases, and their prices are highly volatile, so investment should be approached with caution.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai 9684xtpa), the current total value of the long position held by Ma Ji Lao Ge, amounting to $79.16 million, has turned from profit to loss, having previously seen an unrealized profit of over $2.7 million.Among them, the BTC long position holds 555 coins, valued at $42.76 million, with an unrealized profit of $456,000; the ETH long position holds 15,600 coins, valued at $35.85 million, with an unrealized loss of $486,000; the HYPE long position holds 12,888.88 coins, valued at $533,000, with an unrealized profit of $4,797.

Arkham stated that trader Murad's portfolio has rebounded to about $12 million, up approximately 50% from the previous low of $7.8 million, but still down about 82% from the historical peak. During this period, Murad did not sell his holdings in SPX and other meme coins.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Aave's TVL has fallen below 30 billion USD.This data has decreased from 45.8 billion USD before the rsETH event to the current 29.6 billion USD, with an outflow amount of 16.2 billion USD.