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Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: Waller's hawkish speech raises expectations for "higher interest rates to last longer," making the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields key to the market

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

first_img The market expects TSMC's foundry prices to be raised by 10% to 15% across the board

According to a report by Juheng.com, after Samsung Electronics took the lead in raising prices for some advanced and mature processes, the market expects TSMC to follow suit, with prices for its various processes likely to increase by 10% to 15% across the board. According to reports from TrendForce and Nomura Securities, TSMC has completed a new round of price negotiations with customers in mid-year, raising prices for the tight supply of some 3-nanometer N3 processes by up to 15% for the second half of the year. The market further anticipates that by early 2027 at the latest, prices for TSMC's advanced processes such as N2, N3, and N5 may increase by another 5% to 10%.TSMC's N2 and N3 capacities have almost been fully booked by Apple and NVIDIA. The prices for mature processes such as N12, N16, and N28, which have not been adjusted for three consecutive years, may also see a simultaneous increase, with a maximum rise of about 10%. According to estimates from Citi Securities, TSMC's capital expenditure will reach $80 billion in 2027, further increasing to $90 billion in 2028, with this year's capital expenditure already raised to between $52 billion and $56 billion. TSMC announced in July that it would expand its investment in the United States to $265 billion. According to Reuters, Samsung raised prices for some new orders of advanced processes in July, with the 4-nanometer SF4 seeing increases of 10% to 15% for customers in China and the United States.

Capital B raised nearly 20 million euros to increase its holdings by 270 BTC, Evernorth is advancing its shell company listing on Nasdaq

According to BBX data, last weekend, global US and European listed companies disclosed the latest official accounts regarding digital asset treasury financing, SPAC mergers, and mining reserve strategies. The core updates are as follows:Capital B raised nearly 20 million euros in a private placement, planning to purchase an additional 270 bitcoins: French listed company Capital B (Euronext: $ALCAP) announced that it has conducted a targeted private placement of approximately 36.22 million shares with warrants (ABSA) to global institutional investors, with an issue price of 0.58 euros per share, raising a total of approximately 21 million euros (net approximately 19.9 million euros). This round of strategic investors includes Adam Back and the well-known asset management firm TOBAM, with Maxim Group serving as the exclusive placement agent. The company stated that the funds raised are intended for the purchase of approximately 270 bitcoins, which would increase its potential total bitcoin holdings to 3,415 BTC.XRP treasury company Evernorth's S-4 declaration takes effect, planning to list on Nasdaq under the code "XPN": XRP treasury company Evernorth Holdings announced that its S-4 registration statement related to the business merger with SPAC company Armada Acquisition Corp. II submitted to the US SEC has officially taken effect. Armada shareholders are scheduled to hold a special meeting on September 30 to vote. If the transaction is approved and meets the closing conditions, the merged company is expected to complete the closing by the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year and will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code "XPN."Bitdeer disclosed weekly mining data, maintaining a zero-holding strategy with full liquidation: Nasdaq-listed bitcoin mining company Bitdeer (NASDAQ: $BTDR) announced the latest holding data. As of the week ending August 28, its self-mining output totaled 273.5 BTC, and during the same period, it fully sold 273.5 BTC in the secondary market, resulting in a net addition of 0 BTC. The company's balance sheet continues to maintain a zero retention strategy, selling mined bitcoins immediately.

Former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve: The default choice now is to raise interest rates, and Waller's speech reverses the previous logic of the Federal Reserve

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

Short-term yields on U.S. Treasuries have risen, as the market expects the Federal Reserve may need to raise short-term interest rates

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

a16z raises $1.1 billion for a new fund: focusing on the construction of a full set of infrastructure for AI operations

Silicon Valley's renowned venture capital firm a16z has announced that it has raised $1.1 billion for its latest fund, the Machine Age Fund, which will focus on investing in the full suite of computing infrastructure that supports AI operations, including chips, memory, networking, storage, as well as complete systems such as data centers, robots, and home AI devices.a16z stated that over the past year, there has been a significant turning point in the growth of AI in terms of application capabilities and types of work. As AI expands from chat and reasoning further into programming and other knowledge work, the demand for computing power and tokens is experiencing exponential growth, and machine intelligence is accelerating its deep development.a16z indicated that its team possesses extensive experience in hardware, data centers, chips, networking, and large-scale computing systems. They have also established a resource network covering market expansion, talent recruitment, marketing, customers, suppliers, and American manufacturing, which will further support the next generation of AI hardware entrepreneurs. a16z mentioned that we are currently at an important juncture in the transformation of computing paradigms and look forward to collaborating with entrepreneurs dedicated to reconstructing AI hardware and advancing the arrival of the "Machine Age."

first_img Bernstein: IREN's $25 billion to $30 billion AI expansion plan may raise concerns among investors

According to The Block, research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin mining company IREN plans to invest $25 billion to $30 billion to expand its AI cloud business in fiscal year 2027. This scale of capital expenditure may "scare the market," but analysts believe investors are overlooking the improving economic benefits.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out in a report to clients on Friday that the payback period for GPU capital expenditures has shortened from about three years under the 2025 Microsoft contract to about two years. IREN's fiscal year 2026 performance released on Thursday showed that AI cloud service revenue grew nearly eightfold from $16.4 million the previous year to $128.8 million, while Bitcoin mining revenue reached $578.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Total revenue rose from $501 million to $707 million, but the company recorded a net loss of $702.6 million, partly reflecting a $638.8 million impairment due to the retirement of Bitcoin mining hardware to support AI cloud expansion.Bernstein stated that IREN currently has an annualized run rate revenue of $1 billion from operating cloud and $4 billion in contract revenue, with its 2026 capacity nearly sold out. In addition to the expected $700 million related to the Nvidia contract in 2027, IREN's total contract cloud ARR amounts to $4.7 billion. Over the past 12 months, IREN has raised $19 billion through customer prepayments, GPU financing, convertible bonds, and equity issuance.
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