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CryptoQuant: The market has not yet fallen into a deep bear phase, with the ultimate bottom around $55,000

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.

CryptoQuant: The "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is around $55,000

According to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant stated that the "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.Analysis shows that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom has not yet approached. The monthly cumulative realized loss (in BTC) remains far below the bear market bottom level: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.Several key valuation indicators have also not entered the historical capitulation zone: the MVRV ratio has not reached the extremely undervalued range; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of about 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently selling at approximately breakeven, while during historical bear market bottoms, they typically endure losses of 30%-40%; about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows are usually around 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase" rather than the "extreme bear market phase," which historically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of the price entering a bottoming phase.

Coinbase announces 2025 financial report: Q4 under pressure with a net loss of $667 million, strong performance throughout the year setting multiple new highs

Coinbase released its Q4 and full-year financial report for 2025. Despite the overall downturn in the crypto market, Coinbase achieved several historical highs, with trading volume and market share doubling, although Q4 revenue slightly missed expectations and recorded a net loss.In Q4, Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million, with a loss per share of $2.49, far exceeding analyst expectations. Total revenue was $1.78 billion, a decrease of 5% quarter-over-quarter and approximately 22% year-over-year, falling short of market expectations of $1.83 billion to $1.85 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, with adjusted net income of $178 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million.Q4 was challenging for Coinbase, but the full-year performance was strong, with total trading volume reaching $5.2 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 156%. The crypto trading market share doubled to approximately 6.4%, and subscription and service revenue grew by 23% to about $2.8 billion. The number of Coinbase One paid subscribers approached 1 million, and platform assets and USDC balances reached all-time highs.Coinbase stated that it is advancing its "Everything Exchange" strategy, which includes the expansion of derivatives and stablecoin payments. Despite short-term pressures from the bear market, Coinbase still views 2025 as a strong year and remains optimistic about product innovation and market recovery in 2026.
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