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cow

Investment bank TD Cowen: If Trump agrees to fill the Democratic vacancies at the SEC and CFTC, the progress of the CLARITY Act may be effectively promoted

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that filling the Democratic vacancies at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could help advance negotiations on the U.S. crypto market structure bill.The investment bank pointed out that the biggest obstacle to the passage of this bill is not its core framework (i.e., whether digital assets should be regulated as securities by the SEC or as commodities by the CFTC), but rather a political dispute surrounding conflict of interest rules.Democrats are pushing for a ban to prevent senior government officials and their families from engaging in specific financial transactions involving digital assets. TD Cowen noted that, given Trump's involvement in the crypto project World Liberty Financial, this proposal would affect Trump and his family. Bloomberg estimated last month that Trump has made about $1.4 billion from his crypto project. The Trump family also holds a 20% stake in the mining company American Bitcoin.According to TD Cowen, it is unlikely that Democrats will abandon this demand, as the party has used Trump's crypto asset holdings as campaign material ahead of the midterm elections. Last month, no Democratic senators voted in favor of a bill in the Senate Agriculture Committee, citing concerns over Trump's crypto project. It remains unclear whether Democrats will support the Senate Banking Committee's bill.TD Cowen stated that Republicans oppose the proposal because they believe Trump would veto any legislation requiring his family to divest their crypto asset holdings. The report added that this disagreement has already caused a political stalemate, even as industry groups continue to negotiate the crypto regulatory framework.One possible path forward is for both parties to reach a compromise. In this scenario, Trump would agree to fill the Democratic vacancies at the SEC and CFTC. In return, Democrats would accept conflict of interest provisions that would only take effect after the next presidential inauguration.

TD Cowen: The cryptocurrency market structure bill may be delayed until 2027 for passage and implemented in 2029

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the U.S. legislative process aimed at establishing clear rules for the cryptocurrency market may take longer than expected, with the passage of related bills potentially delayed until 2027, and actual implementation possibly postponed until 2029.In a report released by TD Cowen on Monday, it was noted that while there is still a path to push the cryptocurrency market structure bill through this year, the political maneuvering in the U.S. Congress increases the likelihood of delays. The agency believes that the Democrats currently lack the motivation to accelerate the legislative process, especially considering their assessment that they may regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.It also stated that election outcomes are always filled with uncertainty, so Democrats may reach an agreement, which could happen quickly as staff have been researching technical terms for months. Timing is favorable for the passage of the bill; if the bill is passed in 2027 and takes effect in 2029, then the issues will disappear. The cryptocurrency industry needs to accept that the presidential election may affect the final rules, and Democrats also need to acknowledge that conflict of interest provisions do not apply to Trump.

TD Cowen: The Bitcoin premium of Strategy is approaching the "crypto winter" low point, but still maintains a buy rating

According to The Block, TD Cowen's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin premium of Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to decline, currently "approaching the lows of the 'crypto winter' of 2021-2022." The report includes two updated premium charts (one tracing back to 2020 and covering nearly 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue new shares or purchase new Bitcoin through its market issuance (ATM) plan yesterday, prompting the market to re-evaluate its current premium levels.The charts show that the current premium has significantly retreated from last year's peak and is gradually compressing to levels seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping a buy rating and a target price of $535 (approximately 200% higher than Strategy's current stock price of about $180), believing that "achieving this target within a year is reasonably expected." The report states: "We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price expectations, anticipating that Strategy will hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027, which estimates that by December 2027, its holdings will be worth over $185 billion, equating to an intrinsic value of about $540 per share. The $535 target price reflects zero premium to the intrinsic value per share as of December 2027." The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has put pressure on its stock price, with expectations that the company will be removed from the index and will continue to face pressure under MSCI's shadow.

Investment bank TD Cowen: The SEC will enter a critical regulatory period, and Chairman Atkins will lead the formulation of cryptocurrency rules

According to The Block, analysts at investment bank TD Cowen have pointed out that as the federal government resumes operations, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is entering a critical period, as the agency is working on developing regulatory rules for the cryptocurrency industry.Led by Jaret Seiberg, the TD Cowen Washington research team stated in a report that following the longest government shutdown in history, market focus has shifted to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' policy agenda. Seiberg said on Monday, "After the government restart, the SEC will enter the most important 12 months of Chairman Atkins' tenure, and his agenda for easing regulations will enter a substantive phase." Since the new Trump administration took office this year, the SEC has taken several actions to clarify its stance on cryptocurrency regulation, including issuing staking guidelines, holding roundtable discussions, and launching a rule modernization initiative called the "Crypto Plan."Last week, Atkins also announced a token classification scheme aimed at defining under what circumstances digital assets should be classified as securities. Seiberg noted that the SEC needs to start releasing proposals in the coming months to complete rule-making before 2027, as the agency can take up to two years from proposal to finalization, allowing room for judicial defense and ensuring that the new rules are implemented by the end of 2028.Seiberg mentioned that Atkins is also focusing on non-cryptocurrency issues such as semi-annual report disclosures and retail investor participation in alternative investments. In the cryptocurrency space, Atkins is expected to focus on tokenized equity assets. As crypto companies rush to launch blockchain equity tokens, these tokenized securities may directly compete with traditional brokerage businesses. Seiberg stated, "We expect SEC Chairman Atkins to provide exemptions for online brokers and crypto platforms, paving the way for them to engage in tokenized equity business."
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