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BTC $73,537.03 -1.08%
ETH $2,007.54 -0.72%
BNB $637.50 -1.64%
XRP $1.31 +0.61%
SOL $81.94 -0.49%
TRX $0.3524 -4.16%
DOGE $0.0993 -1.04%
ADA $0.2343 -1.10%
BCH $299.86 -10.20%
LINK $8.98 -1.54%
HYPE $61.52 +6.58%
AAVE $80.68 -2.99%
SUI $0.9284 -3.24%
XLM $0.2020 +23.21%
ZEC $544.79 +0.54%

zone

Bitcoin has entered a high-risk zone, and the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds highlights concerns about selling pressure

The latest report from the blockchain analysis platform Swissblock shows that Bitcoin is gradually slipping into a high-risk environment, primarily due to continuous selling by institutional funds, especially driven by net outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. Historical data indicates that whenever this index signals selling pressure overwhelming the market at a structural level, it often corresponds to systematic distribution behavior by institutional funds.On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode also pointed out that since May 7, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shown net outflows almost every trading day, with institutional selling signals persisting for over two weeks. "Such continuous capital outflows are exerting pressure on the supply side of the market, while currently, there has not been sufficient buying demand to hedge against this," further exacerbating the risk of supply-demand imbalance.In the market, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure on Tuesday due to geopolitical disturbances. Reports indicated that the U.S. is implementing a new round of military strikes against Iran, despite recent progress on a peace agreement between the two sides. Bitcoin's price fell by about 1%, briefly dipping from above $77,000 to around $76,500, but overall it still maintained a range-bound pattern for nearly four months.CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko stated that although geopolitical events may trigger short-term volatility, the market focus may still lean towards potential reconciliation progress between the U.S. and Iran, with the overall cryptocurrency market "still in a wait-and-see state." In summary, the current Bitcoin market faces dual pressures: on one hand, the continuous outflow of spot ETF funds has weakened key buying support; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has amplified short-term volatility risks. If institutional risk appetite does not improve marginally, the risk index may rise further, necessitating caution against the adjustment pressure brought by technical selling and emotional resonance.

Glassnode: BTC breaks through key cost zone, $85,000 becomes the next key resistance level

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has broken through the real market average ($78,200) and the cost price for short-term holders ($79,100). If it can maintain this range for the next week, the "deep value phase" since 2026 may become the shortest in Bitcoin's history.The next key resistance level in the current market is around $85,200. On-chain data shows that the 30-day net realized profit and loss average has turned positive to 0.003% of the market cap, and long-term holders have realized profits rising to $180 million daily, but this is still significantly lower than the over $1 billion level during the peak of this cycle.However, the market has realized losses still amounting to $479 million daily, which is 140% higher than the stable range of this cycle. Glassnode believes that it needs to continuously fall below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery.In terms of capital, the 30-day net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has turned positive again, indicating that institutional demand is recovering. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative during the upward process, suggesting that market short positions are still heavy. If shorts continue to be squeezed, it may further drive prices up.Additionally, there is a concentration of about $2 billion in "Short Gamma" positions around $82,000, and market makers' hedging behavior may amplify price volatility. Glassnode believes that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains strong, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase. If there is a lack of sustained spot buying support, there may be significant selling pressure around $85,000.

K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom in late 2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.
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