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According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), Bitcoin has just experienced the most intense deleveraging phase since 2023. The open interest on Binance has significantly dropped below the 180-day moving average, and the largest historical long and short liquidations during this cycle occurred during this period.Currently, the open interest on Binance remains at $9.6 billion, above the 180-day average of $8.3 billion, accounting for approximately 37% of the total open interest in Bitcoin, which is higher than the levels during the rebound in May—when this level helped BTC return to $82,000. Meanwhile, measured by the cumulative net buying volume over 365 days (the difference between spot buying and selling), the current buying pressure for Bitcoin has reached the strongest level since the last bear market. Analysts point out that although this adjustment has significantly impacted traders, there are signs of market recovery, providing support for a bullish rebound in Bitcoin; however, the excessively high leverage levels still need to be monitored, as they may trigger a new round of intense deleveraging.

Fidelity Digital Assets released the Q4 Crypto Market Outlook, noting that at the end of August, Bitcoin and the crypto market surged significantly, with major tokens like BTC and ETH recording their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025. Some investors are focusing on whether a bear market bottom will form in November (based on the 4-year cycle theory), but Fidelity warns that this pattern may not repeat— the bottom may have already occurred in July, or it could reach new lows in November or later.Fidelity pointed out that historically, the end of a bear market is usually accompanied by a low volatility period followed by price expansion. At the end of August, BTC rose over 25% in a single week, while ETH and SOL increased by 34.1% and 28%, respectively. Recent security incidents involving hardware wallets and the stagnation of the CLARITY Act have not suppressed prices, which may further reinforce the judgment that crypto assets are nearing a bottom. The trading volume of stablecoins has reached 2.3 times that of Visa, and the RWA market is expected to grow faster in 2026 than in previous years, with on-chain adoption continuing to increase. The CLARITY Act is still under review in the Senate, and the SEC proposed the Regulation Crypto Assets last week. Fidelity advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective.

Rapha Zagury, CEO of Twenty One Capital and founder of Elektron Energy, stated during his speech at Bitcoin Asia 2026 that the Bitcoin network is experiencing its first-ever bear market in hashrate. The hashrate of the Bitcoin network was close to 1.3 ZH/s at the end of last year, but has since been slowly declining, with the duration of this decline from the historical peak now setting a record. Zagury believes that Bitcoin mining is not simply a "good business" or "bad business"; it largely depends on where the mining company stands on the cost curve. Mining companies with lower energy costs and higher machine efficiency can maintain higher profit margins, while those with high energy costs and low equipment efficiency may be forced to shut down.Currently, while the Bitcoin hashrate price has improved compared to before, it is still at a relatively low level when measured against historical standards. When the price of Bitcoin rises faster than the growth of the network's hashrate, mining is more likely to outperform BTC. For companies, he believes that the best risk-adjusted allocation is not simply choosing to "buy BTC" or "mine," but rather a combination of both; however, if only $1 can be allocated, he suggests prioritizing the purchase of BTC. Regarding energy issues, Zagury stated that energy consumption itself does not imply waste; energy is the foundation of economic development and human progress. He believes that one of the greatest characteristics of Bitcoin mining is its highly flexible load, as mining machines can quickly turn on and off based on energy supply, thus helping the grid absorb idle or surplus electricity and enhancing grid stability to some extent. Additionally, he believes that Bitcoin mining is generating "option value" that was not previously apparent, including aspects such as energy utilization, market share, proximity to the Bitcoin protocol, and infrastructure. With the growing demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), the existing energy and data center infrastructure of mining companies may also gain additional application scenarios such as AI computing power. Currently, among large publicly listed mining companies, there are fewer and fewer that can continue large-scale Bitcoin mining, and the industry is at a critical stage where the energy revolution intersects with the Bitcoin revolution.

Rekt Capital posted on platform X that the stage lows of Bitcoin in February and June 2026 are in roughly the same price range, and the RSI is also at nearly the same oversold level. After both bottoms, Bitcoin rebounded to around $80,000.Compared to the peak in May 2026, when Bitcoin rises again to around $80,000, the overbought level of the RSI is significantly higher, but the price has formed lower highs. The RSI forming higher highs while the price forms lower highs indicates a hidden bearish divergence at the important resistance level of around $80,000 on the daily chart of Bitcoin. As long as the price of Bitcoin fails to break through and form a new higher high, this hidden bearish divergence will continue to exist.

X account bitcoinarchive states that VanEck indicates all 12 quantitative signals show that the Bitcoin bear market has ended.VanEck also points out, "Saylor's strategy sell-off looks like a typical newspaper headline bottom."

Analysts at the cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant believe that Bitcoin has emerged from the bear market, but a short-term pullback may occur. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on social media that Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market and pointed out that the current trend is consistent with the market conditions before the last bull market.CryptoQuant's research shows that the inflow of funds to derivatives exchanges has resumed, confirming that traders have entered a risk-on mode, which has historically marked the beginning of a new bull market. The firm's analyst Theophiluspep stated that while Bitcoin is entering a bull market, spot demand, ETF fund flows, and market momentum have turned bullish, while high profit-taking, inflows to exchanges, and overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term cooling.Bitcoin continued to rise last week, increasing by 22% over the past 7 days, with the latest price at $78,716, briefly touching $81,160 on Monday. Previously, in June and July, Bitcoin mostly traded below $65,000. U.S. investors reversed direction last week and bought Bitcoin ETFs, achieving the best weekly performance since October, with data from Farside Investors showing that related funds managed by institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Morgan Stanley saw an inflow of $1.9 billion in new funds. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury announced last week that it would at least double its long-term Treasury bond repurchase scale, leading to a decline in yields, with Bitcoin and gold rising in tandem.

Strive Chairman and CEO Matt Cole stated that February 19 was the bear market bottom for the company's stock $ASST, when the company's CFO, CLO, and several executives and directors bought shares in the open market, and three independent directors transitioned to full-time within six months. There is high confidence internally regarding the Bitcoin exposure held, the amplification structure, and team chemistry.Cole mentioned that despite the external sentiment being low at that time, the internal morale was high, and the execution capability was validated in the following six months. Now, $ASST has surged, and market sentiment has improved, but the team's focus remains unchanged: the Bitcoin bull market has just begun, and Strive has built the corresponding amplification structure and will push forward with full force.Market data shows that $ASST has risen over 50% in the last four trading days, with a current market capitalization of approximately $1.686 billion.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Dota 2 Summer Bears vs. Ducks," the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Both Defeat Roshan" has experienced a significant fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 38.5% an hour ago to the current 55% (a fluctuation of 16.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The founder of the Liebit mining pool, Jiang Zhuoer, stated that his previous bearish judgment on the market was incorrect. He currently has a 90% confidence that the bear market has ended and believes that this round of ETH will become the main driving force of the bull market, potentially outperforming BTC.In terms of operations, Jiang Zhuoer mentioned that the ETH sold previously at $1738 to $1931 has been bought back at $2100 with a stop-loss, and he sold 50% of the spot when ETH rose to $2525 to test the peak, with a stop-loss set at $2550. For funds that are still in a state of missing out, Jiang Zhuoer plans to buy in fully if BTC falls to the range of $67,000 to $72,000; otherwise, he will buy at the current price by the end of October at the latest. He believes that compared to predicting the market, execution and risk control are more important in trading, which means "hold on if you're right, cut losses if you're wrong."

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that BTC is currently showing strong momentum. Such rebounds during a bear market typically indicate that the bottom has been confirmed.He mentioned that there may still be a pullback, but the bear market phase is essentially over.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that since May, after judging that the rebound had ended, he has mainly focused on one thing over the past two months: that July to August may be the last opportunity to bottom out in this round of BTC. With Bitcoin's daily level strongly breaking through the 120-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, while also breaking through the 20-week moving average at the weekly level, the BTC bear market trend has officially ended.He mentioned that the market is still bullish in the next two weeks, but after rising to a certain position, a pullback may still occur. The subsequent pullback will not exceed 50% of the upward movement. If investors use leverage, it is recommended to reduce long positions and refer to the weekly trends and pullback amplitudes during the 2023 upward cycle. This round of Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $126,000 to $57,000, with a maximum drop of about 56%. He believes that this drop has formed a cyclical low point, and it will be difficult for the market to see BTC prices starting with $50,000 again.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun stated, "The bear market is over."Previously, ChainCatcher reported that Wang Chun gradually bottomed out approximately 70,600 ETH (about $11.7 million) and 966 WBTC (about $6.029 million) in June, but during the market rebound in July, Wang Chun transferred 36,600 ETH and 160 WBTC to Binance, expecting to profit $3.4 million.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit posted that Ethereum has completely broken through the key resistance area of the bear market stage and has, for the first time since the start of this bear market, re-established itself above the "golden line (weekly EMA50)" that he focuses on.Doctor Profit believes that this breakthrough is an important technical signal for ETH and said, "Fasten your seatbelts," while indicating that bears will face pressure.

Strategy CEO Phong Le shared his experience in a bear market, stating that he once believed everyone would view Bitcoin as an asset that increases by 30% annually and is completely liquid, thinking that holding as much Bitcoin as possible to support digital credit products was more important than holding dollars. However, the market shows that, apart from Bitcoin and DeFi participants, institutions will invest short-term funds for 6 months, as they value cash more, which is an important lesson.Currently, the company has 2.7 years of dividend coverage and $4.75 billion in cash. Phong Le indicated that he might prefer to hold Bitcoin, but making Stretch operate is essential for MSTR and Bitcoin to function. Some people only want dividend coverage, and the substantial cash indicates that the company is listening to these voices.