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According to South Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo, Morgan Stanley was not selected as the sole lead underwriter for SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) listing. The transaction size is approximately $26.5 billion (about 40 trillion Korean won), making it the largest IPO for foreign capital in the U.S. The commission, calculated at a 0.5% underwriting fee rate, is about $130 million. The final underwriting syndicate consists of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. Industry insiders generally believe that Morgan Stanley's exclusion is related to its repeated issuance of bearish reports on South Korean semiconductors.The report's author is Korean-American Managing Director Shawn Kim, who has repeatedly downgraded the stock ratings of memory stocks such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron in research reports published in 2017, 2021, 2024, and on June 6 of this year, with the 2021 report titled "Memory, Winter is Coming." Additionally, Morgan Stanley has recently faced setbacks in South Korea: as a co-underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, Korea's Mirae Asset applied for $1.14 billion in subscriptions but received zero allocation; the sale of IGIS Asset Management, promoted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs, also ended in failure. Morgan Stanley's largest shareholder is Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), which holds approximately 24% of the shares.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a bearish whale has deposited 31.12 million USDC into Hyperliquid over the past 3 days and currently holds a short position of 64.9 million dollars. The latest deposit was 5.12 million USDC.The current positions include 43.93 million dollars in SKHX shorts, 17.07 million dollars in BRENTOIL shorts, as well as short positions in SMSN, HIMS, and NVDA, with the wallet being 100% short.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders and has been confirmed for 3 days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This indicator excludes BTC held for more than 7 years when calculating the cost basis of long-term holders to more accurately reflect the economically active long-term positions.Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the bear market is immediately over, nor does it indicate that the market bottom has been established; rather, it suggests that the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be more reasonable. He stated that if the cost basis of short-term holders subsequently breaks back above the cost basis of long-term holders, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for the beginning of a bull market phase and can serve as a reference for ending dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the cost basis of short-term holders has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000.

According to Gate's market data, on Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower, with technology stocks declining across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 20% from its historical closing high, likely confirming entry into a bear market.SK Hynix's ADR fell below the issuance price of $149 for the first time, and SpaceX's stock price dropped 38% from its peak, with a market value evaporating by about $1 trillion. AMD fell over 7%, Intel dropped over 6%, and TSMC declined over 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued pullback in chip stocks is influenced by a shift in funding styles and a change in market preferences, while Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's dissatisfaction with inflation has increased market expectations for interest rate hikes.

According to Blockworks Research data, on-chain consumption of tokenized collectible card games reached a historic high of $324 million in June 2026, an increase of over five times compared to approximately $50 million in the same period last year, while Bitcoin fell over 20% to a 21-month low, with spot ETFs recording a record outflow of $4.5 billion.Platforms like Collector Crypt and Courtyard store professionally rated physical Pokémon cards in vaults and issue corresponding NFTs. Users receive tokens backed 1:1 by real cards after purchasing random card packs, which can be traded, held, or redeemed for physical cards. According to Global Market Insights data, the global collectible card market size reached $9.2 billion.Pokémon became the best-selling toy brand in the United States in 2025, with sales reaching $2.5 billion, an 87% year-on-year increase. Collector Crypt has tokenized approximately $40 million worth of cards, purchasing about $2 million weekly, with around 30% of users ultimately redeeming for physical cards. According to Dune data, 5% to 8% of NFTs on Courtyard are destroyed weekly to redeem for physical cards.

Glassnode data shows that buyers who have held Bitcoin for 1-2 years have realized losses, which may indicate the bottom of the bear market in 2026, with $69,000 becoming a key price battleground.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

The total circulation of stablecoins has fallen by about $10 billion from the peak in May 2026 to about $312 billion, with a decrease of $7.7 billion in June alone, marking the largest single-month dollar decline since the Terra-Luna event in 2022. The supply of Tether USDT decreased from about $190 billion to about $184 billion, while Circle USDC fell from nearly $80 billion to about $73 billion. However, the overall decline is only about 3%, far lower than the over 26% contraction during the bear market from 2022 to 2023.Market participants believe this fluctuation is a normal adjustment within a strong long-term growth trend, as the market value of stablecoins has doubled in two years. There was also a decline of about $9 billion from late 2025 to early 2026, followed by a return to historical highs. Positive factors include regulatory progress such as the GENIUS Act driving new competitors into the market, the circulation growth of regulated products like Global Dollar (USDG) under Paxos, and major financial institutions still expecting the stablecoin market to reach trillions of dollars by the end of this decade.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current Bitcoin price has been below the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, this kind of prolonged loss phase for short-term holders is often highly correlated with bear market cycles.Currently, the short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin is approximately $70,700, which continues to act as a resistance level. The market trend in May has reflected this pressure, as BTC quickly encountered a pullback after testing this area near approximately $82,000.

According to Cointelegraph, Real Vision's chief cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of a bear market, with the downward momentum beginning to slow.Coutts pointed out that compared to the previous market cycle, Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50%, indicating that the current decline may not be as severe as past bear markets. However, Coutts also warned that markets rarely follow historical patterns so perfectly. "They basically move at their own pace. Currently, all trend indicators are clearly bearish." The good news is that some early technical signs suggest that selling pressure is easing. "I am starting to see momentum indicators showing bullish divergence on longer time frames. This indicates acceleration, or more precisely, that negative momentum is slowing down, but that does not mean that we have technically exited the bear market."

Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this bear market. Although the bear market has not ended, the downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen about 50% from the historical high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts referred to the current trend as a "typical bear market" and pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous cycle, which suggests that this decline may not be as severe as the previous bear market. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically replicate historical cycles.He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean that Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to the tightening of global liquidity, the deterioration of on-chain demand has also been a significant reason for Bitcoin's decline. Regarding long-term price predictions, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He prefers to predict that BTC will rise to between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to more clearly address the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as significant protocol upgrades may take about five years.

Strive's Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett stated that there are currently three types of investment views on Bitcoin in the market: first, the bulls, who believe that Bitcoin's long-term annualized return rate is higher than the cost of financing, and therefore are willing to borrow long-term capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; second, the neutral investors, who view Bitcoin as a "Digital Credit" asset, only needing to believe that Bitcoin will not disappear and can generally follow the growth of USD inflation over the long term to meet their return needs.For example, according to Michael Saylor, if Bitcoin grows at an average annual rate of 3.3%, it can sustainably rely on capital gains to pay current dividends; third, the bears, who can express their views by shorting Bitcoin or leveraging Bitcoin products. Burnett believes that as bulls, neutrals, and bears all have corresponding Bitcoin investment tools, more capital is expected to enter the Bitcoin market.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted an analysis on the X platform stating that Bitcoin has entered the late stage of a bear market, and the U.S. spot ETF has shown for the first time that selling pressure is easing. In the latest trading day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $223 million.Most of the demand flowed into FBTC (+$166 million) and ARKB (+$91.8 million).

Bitwise Research Director André Dragosch posted on the X platform that July could be a key month for Bitcoin to switch from a bear market to a bull market. He pointed out that if semiconductor stocks significantly reverse from their current position, the Federal Reserve may respond with a dovish stance. Bitcoin is likely to complete its reversal ahead of the market's general expectation of a bottom in October.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

10x Research released the latest market report indicating that Bitcoin traders have long misunderstood the indicators of "global money supply" and "global liquidity," while the trend of the US dollar is one of the important factors affecting Bitcoin prices. 10x Research pointed out that the US dollar is currently strengthening from multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a strong dollar is usually unfavorable for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last one occurring in November 2025, followed by several months of continuous decline in Bitcoin prices.The report also stated that the global liquidity indicator, which circulated widely in the crypto community last year, was misused by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator issued a buy signal in early March this year and a sell signal at the end of April, and the team has calculated the next possible triggering time window. 10x Research stated that the report combines the trend of the US dollar, global liquidity, and other macro driving factors to analyze the potential time and value ranges for the low point of this bear market, and believes that the time window corresponding to the low point of Bitcoin's current cycle is gradually approaching.

Pioneer of crypto punk Adam Back stated that the market's negative view on Strategy and its preferred stock STRC lacks basis, as what Strategy is essentially doing is selling Bitcoin to pay dividends, without changing its Bitcoin reserve strategy, and is precisely "proving that it is possible to pay returns to investors through Bitcoin while reducing debt ratios."Adam Back further pointed out that Strategy is demonstrating a new financial model to the market, where Bitcoin may become an alternative asset to cash for corporate asset management and capital operations in the future, while the FUD sentiment surrounding MSTR and STRC is exaggerated. Strategy will not "go to zero," and its long-term value lies in continuously holding Bitcoin and promoting the market's understanding of Bitcoin's monetary properties.