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Wintermute: Bitcoin faces its first test after breaking through, with $82,500 becoming a key observation level

Wintermute posted that, on the macro front, risk assets continued to rise last week. Even with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, there was no significant risk-averse sentiment in the market. Crypto assets led the way, with altcoins rising approximately 5%, followed closely by BTC, and the Nasdaq also recorded gains, while long-term U.S. Treasuries performed the weakest.The report believes that oil prices will be a key factor influencing the interest rate hike expectations for October. Currently, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices nearing $103 per barrel. If oil prices continue to stay around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may remain high, at which point the core issue will shift to whether risk assets can absorb further rate hikes in the short term while bonds remain under pressure.In the crypto market, BTC last week first stood above the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis, with the current level of $82,500 being the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, which is also a key position to watch this week; if this level can stabilize, it may become the foundation for the previous breakout; otherwise, a drop below this level will reignite concerns about the validity of the breakout. Meanwhile, BTC's market share has increased, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase with low Delta bullish options and call spreads being added for year-end positioning.

first_img Grayscale Research Director: Computing power is becoming a new scarce digital asset

On September 24, Zach Pandl, the research director of the cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale, published an article in the column The Stack stating that in the wave of artificial intelligence, the demand and supply paths for the computing power required to train, run, and operate models are diverging. Grayscale believes that this imbalance favors owners of already powered and operational computing capacity and brings growth-oriented investment opportunities.Zach Pandl stated that digital demand can expand instantly, but physical infrastructure such as electricity, data centers, chips, memory, and cloud services takes years to approve, access, and build. When artificial intelligence agents perform multi-step tasks, they may consume 5 to 50 times more compute tokens than typical chatbot interactions, and increased application layer activity will transmit to the underlying computing infrastructure.The article cites data from the International Energy Agency and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, stating that data centers are expected to account for about half of the growth in electricity demand in the United States by 2030, and new projects may take more than five years to connect to the grid. Even if electricity is secured, permits, specialized labor, electrical equipment, cooling systems, GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, and networks are still needed. Continuous value will flow to power producers, data center operators, and artificial intelligence cloud service providers that can convert electricity into computation.

first_img The Wall Street Journal: AI infrastructure may become the largest economic bet in American history

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the construction of artificial intelligence is becoming the largest economic bet in American history, surpassing investments in railroads, highway systems, and internet infrastructure. The report states that spending on data centers has exceeded the combined expenditures on canals, railroads, and power grid construction, and this related construction is driving inflation while creating jobs and wealth.Economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, in estimates published by the Brookings Institution, shows that total investment in data centers and related artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to reach $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, averaging about 3.6% of GDP annually. The report states that the U.S. economy has never been so dependent on the construction of a single industry. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2026, U.S. investment in artificial intelligence will reach 1.9% of GDP; the last time a single new industry accounted for a larger share of the economy was during the railroad boom in the late 19th century.The estimates list the average annual infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP as follows: canals from 1836 to 1841 at 0.66%, railroads from 1870 to 1890 at 2.24%, electrification from 1905 to 1925 at 0.5%, highways from 1956 to 1973 at 1.13%, telecommunications and fiber optics from 1996 to 2003 at 1.1%, and artificial intelligence from 2025 to 2032 at 3.63%. The report also states that this investment is transforming various sectors of the economy, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and producing new billionaires, while also carrying significant risks, as a large portion of it is supported by debt.

HTX Research Analyst WZ: The pricing of the cryptocurrency market is extending outward, with regulation and macro liquidity becoming key variables

In the seventh live broadcast of the Huobi Expert Lecture, HTX Research asset analyst WZ pointed out that in the past, people were accustomed to explaining Crypto with Crypto, but today, the variables that determine the next phase of Crypto are increasingly occurring outside of Crypto. This marks a new pricing cycle that Crypto is entering.On the policy level, WZ believes that although the Clarity Act, which has systematic characteristics, is hindered in the Senate due to the need to secure bipartisan votes and issues involving the Trump family's interests and stablecoin profit distribution, U.S. crypto regulation has not stalled. For instance, the SEC recently released an "innovation exemption" plan that allows compliant institutions meeting certain conditions to tokenize specific stocks, accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto.On the macro level, WZ stated that the situation in the Middle East and the blockage risk in the Strait of Hormuz have raised the "risk premium" of crude oil. Rising oil prices can trigger inflation expectations, which in turn affect U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity. When energy prices remain high and interest rates stay elevated, the upward potential for risk assets like Bitcoin may be constrained.WZ also pointed out that in this cycle, the direct inflow and outflow of ETF funds have changed the traditional logic of capital overflow, making a "general rise" pattern for altcoins difficult to achieve. However, in the new cycle, assets with a "new narrative" and strong consensus will still experience independent upward trends.

Citigroup: The SEC's new regulations will become the next focal point for the cryptocurrency market

Citigroup stated in its latest market strategy program that the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act for formal review did not interrupt Bitcoin's rebound. After the procedural vote on the bill was blocked, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating that funds have begun to reduce their reliance on a single legislative node and are instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue to move forward.Citigroup believes that the legislative blockage will limit the CFTC's ability to obtain a more comprehensive regulatory mandate for the crypto market in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rule-making based on its existing authority. For the market, this means that the compliance process for the crypto industry still has room to continue, with the subsequent focus on the SEC's actual execution pace regarding trading, tokenized assets, and market access rules. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin's rebound.The baseline judgment of Citigroup's economic team is that this round of interest rate hikes may be close to "one and done"; however, the quantitative macro team warns that if AI investments continue to support growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin's position above the mid-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite and notes that its correlation with Nasdaq performance is worth continued tracking.
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