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According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Trump stated that he will investigate the betting behavior of federal employees on event betting platforms, concerned that some may profit in prediction markets using confidential government information.Previously, federal authorities arrested a soldier involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Maduro, who had successfully bet that Maduro would be ousted, earning about $400,000.

According to market data, the Binance BTC/USDT contract and spot market briefly showed a significant price difference, peaking at around 700 USD, and then quickly converged, with the current price rising to 77365 USD.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the current probability of the market betting on "Will Kelp DAO share this loss?" is 25%.This market was established around the April 19 incident where the Kelp DAO bridge was attacked. The attacker exploited a LayerZero cross-chain messaging vulnerability, withdrawing approximately $292 million in rsETH from the bridge, causing damage to the collateral backing for rsETH holders on the L2 network.According to Polymarket's market rules, if Kelp DAO announces or implements a mechanism before April 30 to share part or all of the losses with mainnet rsETH holders (rather than having all losses borne by L2 holders), the market will be determined as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No".

Coinbase announced the launch of a crypto collateral lending service in the UK, allowing users to use BTC, ETH, and cbETH as collateral to borrow USDC within one minute. The service is supported by the open-source lending protocol Morpho on the Base chain.Coinbase stated that the product was launched ahead of 2025, and as of April 14, 2026, the total amount of loans issued through Morpho via Coinbase has exceeded 2.17 billion USDC. Users can check loan health, historical annual interest rates, and liquidation alerts within the Coinbase App, with rates dynamically adjusted according to market conditions.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated that he would not oppose the market's bets on two interest rate hikes this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that compared to the shocks of the 1970s, central bank officials today have a better understanding of the importance of inflation expectations.

According to Hong Kong Radio, the Hong Kong government has decided to stop promoting basketball gambling projects. The Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs, Mak Mei-juan, stated in an interview with this station that the information collected by the authorities shows that the "prediction market" has developed rapidly in recent years, with monthly trading volume increasing from less than $100 million two years ago to over $13 billion last year, of which nearly 40% of the transactions are related to sports. The authorities are concerned that if new gambling projects are promoted at this time, it will lead to greater public concern and even participation in illegal gambling in the "prediction market." Therefore, it is believed that research should be conducted first before deciding on the next steps, and the promotion of new gambling projects should be halted for now.Mak Mei-juan stated that the existing regulated gambling projects have established a more mature monitoring and management system, which can help control risks. However, due to the uncertainty of the "prediction market," as a responsible government, there is a need to conduct research to understand the impact of the "prediction market" and its prevalence in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that the government has always maintained close contact with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the club has a rigorous monitoring system to oversee illegal gambling situations, and there are experts specifically targeting the fight against illegal gambling. The government will cooperate with the Jockey Club to obtain professional advice, allowing the authorities to implement measures specifically aimed at illegal gambling.Mak Mei-juan reiterated that the government's consistent policy is not to encourage gambling, and betting on sports projects in the "prediction market" is considered illegal gambling. The authorities will strengthen public education to help citizens understand the harms of gambling and refrain from participating in illegal gambling.

According to The Block, the total amount of bets related to the 2026 elections on the Polymarket platform has exceeded $2 billion. With the elections in Hungary and Peru approaching, the betting volume in April has significantly increased; the share of bets from non-U.S. markets has risen significantly and now accounts for a majority.The Block points out that election prediction markets are no longer exclusive to the United States and are gradually becoming a global phenomenon.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

Bitcoin core developer Jameson Lopp stated that, compared to the potential quantum computing attacks that may arise in the future, he prefers to "freeze" about 5.6 million long-dormant BTC from the network rather than let them be acquired by attackers. These Bitcoins have not moved for over 10 years and may be permanently lost, valued at approximately $42 billion at current prices. If future breakthroughs in quantum computing lead to the decryption of old address private keys, this portion of assets could be re-transferred, triggering severe market fluctuations or even a crisis of confidence.Although the community recently proposed BIP-361, the proposal is still in its early stages and is not an officially promoted plan, but rather more like a contingency plan to address "extreme risks."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that there is a tension between current goals, but the Federal Reserve will be committed to fulfilling its mission.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), trader epsteinfiles spent $12,300 betting that MicroStrategy will hold more than 1 million BTC before December 31, 2026. The trader only participates in bets related to MicroStrategy, and all previous bets have been successful.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain, trader epsteinfiles spent $12,300 betting that MicroStrategy will hold over 1 million BTC before December 31, 2026.This trader only participates in bets related to MicroStrategy, and all previous bets have been successful.

According to market news, the UK Liberal Democrats have written to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), requesting an investigation into the relationship between Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and the Bitcoin company Stack BTC.The party questions whether Farage's appearance in the company's promotional video, while holding shares in Stack BTC, violates market rules and presents a conflict of interest. Stack BTC recently disclosed that it purchased 37 bitcoins as company reserves, valued at approximately $2.7 million, and Farage holds a 6.31% stake in Stack BTC through his media company. At the same time, the UK government is advancing a proposal to ban political donations in cryptocurrency to prevent external funding from interfering in elections. The FCA stated that it will review the relevant correspondence and respond.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (bullseye123) spent $40,000 betting on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, this position has an unrealized loss of about $34,000, with a loss rate of 85%.