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bit

Payward plans to acquire Bitnomial for $550 million, accelerating its layout in the U.S. compliant derivatives market

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken's parent company Payward announced that it will acquire 100% of the digital asset derivatives platform Bitnomial for up to $550 million (cash + stock). The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approval.Bitnomial is the first crypto-native platform to obtain all three U.S. derivatives licenses (designated contract market, derivatives clearing organization, and futures commission merchant). This acquisition will help Payward quickly gain a complete compliant derivatives infrastructure, significantly accelerating its expansion in the U.S. market. After the transaction is completed, Bitnomial's clearing and trading capabilities will be integrated with platforms such as Kraken and NinjaTrader, offering products like spot margin, perpetual contracts, and options to U.S. customers, and will be regulated by the CFTC.This acquisition will also expand Payward Services, allowing banks, fintech companies, and brokerages to access the U.S. compliant derivatives market through a single API. Industry insiders believe that with the market warming up and valuations recovering, merger and acquisition activities in the crypto industry are on the rise, as leading institutions are accelerating their transformation into comprehensive trading platforms for institutional clients by acquiring key capabilities such as compliance, custody, and derivatives.

Analysis: Bitcoin approaches $76,000 but market sentiment remains in "extreme fear"

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

The Bitcoin RHODL ratio has risen to the third highest level in history, which may indicate that the Bitcoin bottom has formed

According to CoinDesk, Glassnode's Bitcoin on-chain metric RHODL ratio is currently at 4.5, which is the third highest level on record, and the signals it emits are more aligned with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding for 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding for 1 day to 3 months). An increase in the ratio typically reflects a longer holding period for chips and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—this dynamic has occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% drop in Bitcoin over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, concentrating wealth among long-term holders.Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than the current level twice: in 2015 (ratio of 5) and in 2022 (ratio of 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to push the ratio to higher levels, it typically requires the activity of short-term holders to be nearly exhausted, and this condition is not yet evident under current circumstances—Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from its February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also reached an all-time high.Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market conditions are closer to an adjustment within the cycle rather than a cycle top formation, and the re-dominance of long-term holders in the market may indicate that a phase bottom is approaching.

Analyst: The Bitcoin funding rate has dropped to a new low since 2023, which may trigger a short squeeze, and BTC is expected to rise to $125,000

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospects for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "look very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The funding rate is so negative that it indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, further accelerating the price upward." He predicts that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the market price, indicating that holders are overall in a state of unrealized losses. Since 2016, consistently falling below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturns, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56%, lasting 339 days).Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist. The former may trigger a significant rise, but ultimately could be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future market direction may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be sustained after its expiration next week.

RootData released the sixth issue of the cryptocurrency exchange transparency ranking (stock category), with Gate and Bitget rising to 3rd and 4th place, respectively

Web3 asset data platform RootData released the sixth issue of the "Cryptocurrency Exchange Transparency Ranking (Stock Category)," continuing to focus on the growth trend of stock assets in cryptocurrency exchanges. In this issue, Binance, OKX, Gate, Bitget, and Bybit ranked in the top five.According to the ranking, most cryptocurrency exchanges saw an increase of around 10% in trading volume over the past week, reversing a downward trend that had persisted for several weeks, but the traffic remained mostly flat compared to last week, with no significant signs of rebound.In terms of ranking changes, Gate and Bitget both moved up one position, while Bybit dropped two positions. Bitget launched the first Pre-IPO project SpaceX (SPCX) in this issue, connecting the Pre-IPO product framework with traditional capital markets, enhancing the richness and institutional attributes of its "tradable stock assets," which is an important reason for the score increase this time.It is reported that RootData adheres to the "transparency first" principle and has taken the lead in establishing a dual evaluation system of "transparency + liquidity" in the field of stock cryptocurrency exchanges, thereby providing investors with more effective data references. The ranking will continue to be improved and published in the future.
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