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CoinShares: Bitcoin shows resilience, but inflation pressure in the United States still limits market upside potential

CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin has shown relative strength this week against the backdrop of renewed volatility in the risk asset market, primarily due to a rebound in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for the AI narrative and is instead focusing more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.The poor performance of some U.S. corporate earnings reports has triggered significant stock price fluctuations, which have also affected Bitcoin to some extent, but it still demonstrates strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals in the U.S. remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting on October 28. The market's expectations for another rate hike in December remain high, with the related probability close to 83%.The weakness in the housing market provides some room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that inflation remains a key factor limiting a shift in policy. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility due to exceeding market expectations; in contrast, maintaining interest rates and continuing to release hawkish signals would be easier for the market to digest. Overall, the current market remains in a state of intertwining bullish and bearish factors. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's enhanced ability to withstand stock market volatility, and the cooling housing market all provide some support for the market; however, inflationary pressures have not yet dissipated, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy. The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is expected to remain highly influenced by interest rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single industry or market catalysts being relatively limited.

Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

first_img Heatbit launched the $899 Bitwater component, heating water while mining Bitcoin

Heatbit, which previously launched a heater with a built-in Bitcoin mining machine, has announced the release of a heating element for water heaters named Bitwater. This element replaces the resistance wire in standard electric water heater elements with 20 Bitcoin mining chips, using the heat generated by the chips to directly heat the water in the tank. Heatbit stated that this electricity was originally intended for heating water, "the same heat, the same electricity, plus Bitcoin." The company claims that global households use approximately 300 TWh of electricity annually for heating water, which exceeds the entire Bitcoin network's consumption of about 170 TWh, advocating for the decentralization of mining to households.Bitwater uses 20 Bitmain BM1370 chips, with a maximum hash rate of 34 TH/s, a maximum power consumption of 600 watts, and an energy efficiency of 12 joules/TH. Due to water cooling, this element requires no fans and produces no noise. The installation process is DIY: turn off the circuit breaker, drain the tank, unscrew the old element, and then screw in the Bitwater using the included wrench. It is compatible with the one-inch standard interface of 30 to 80-gallon electric water heaters commonly found in the United States and Canada, including brands such as A. O. Smith, Rheem, Bradford White, Whirlpool, and GE, without the need for plumbing modifications or additional circuits.Users can check water temperature, hash rate, and earnings through an app, and choose to mine individually or join a mining pool, with mined Bitcoin sent to an address controlled by the user. The initial "genesis batch" pre-order price is $899, with subsequent batches priced up to $1,299, and pre-orders are refundable, with plans to ship in the first quarter of 2027. Heatbit claims to have tested the entire winter in four and five-person households in New York and Florida. Based on the current hash price of approximately $36.73/PH/s/day, the full load of 34 TH/s could mine Bitcoin worth about $1.25 per day, totaling approximately $455 annually.

Analysis: Brent crude oil continues to stay above 100 dollars, macro pressures may limit Bitcoin's upward potential

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

Bithumb administrative lawsuit held for the first time: claims that transfers of less than 1 million Korean won have regulatory gaps

According to South Korean media Digital Asset, the Second Division of the Seoul Administrative Court held its first hearing on October 22 regarding the administrative lawsuit between Bithumb and the Financial Intelligence Unit of Korea (FIU). The FIU determined that between August 28, 2022, and April 3, 2025, Bithumb conducted 45,772 transactions with 18 unreported cryptocurrency operators, and based on this, imposed sanctions, including a partial suspension that restricts new customers from transferring cryptocurrency assets externally for six months.Bithumb stated in court that transactions of 1 million won or more are subject to the "travel rule," and unreported operators have been excluded from the list of optional exchanges, thus the number of violations for this amount range is zero. Transactions below 1 million won were not subject to the travel rule at that time, and the platform had no legal basis to require customers to provide information about the receiving exchange, nor did the regulatory authorities specify a blocking method. Bithumb also mentioned that after integrating the Chainalysis API, only about 2% of the addresses that could not be confirmed were later identified as unreported operators designated by the FIU. If all were blocked, the remaining 98% of normal transactions would be affected, and the platform could also face user claims.Bithumb also believes that the six-month sanction is excessive, effectively equivalent to prohibiting the platform from acquiring new customers. The company also questioned the FIU's criteria for identifying overseas operators and the reasonableness of the basis for the sanctions.
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