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bitwise

Bitwise CIO: If ETF demand continues long-term, Bitcoin will experience parabolic growth

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "If ETF demand persists in the long term, Bitcoin prices will rise parabolically. This can be inferred from the trend of gold in 2025. The prices of gold and Bitcoin are fundamentally determined by supply and demand. The mainstream narrative suggests that gold's significant rise in 2025 (up about 65% for the year) is due to massive purchases by central banks, which changed the supply-demand structure. However, history tells us that Bitcoin is currently undergoing this process.Central bank purchases of gold surged in 2022 against the backdrop of the U.S. freezing and seizing Russian Treasury assets. The annual amount of gold purchased by central banks jumped from about 500 tons to around 1,000 tons and has remained at this high level since then. These purchases did change the supply-demand balance, but did not immediately reflect in the price. Gold only rose 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. It wasn't until 2025 that gold prices truly entered a "parabolic" rise phase.The reason is that in the initial years, the new demand from central banks was primarily absorbed by holders willing to sell gold; but over time, sellers gradually ran out. When demand persists and the available sellable assets become scarcer, prices begin to soar rapidly. The same logic is now appearing in Bitcoin and ETFs. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, the buying volume of ETFs has already exceeded 100% of Bitcoin's new supply. However, the price has not yet experienced a parabolic rise because existing holders are still willing to sell. If ETF demand can sustain (and I believe it will), then these sellers will eventually "run out of ammunition."

Bitwise CEO: The collapse of the Iranian currency has sparked protests, highlighting the necessity of Bitcoin as a tool for value protection

As the Iranian rial's exchange rate against the dollar has fallen to a historic low, large-scale protests have erupted in Tehran recently, with the public attributing the continuous devaluation of the local currency to the central bank's long-term fiscal and monetary policy failures. In response, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated on the X platform that economic mismanagement has been a constant throughout the past, present, and future, while Bitcoin provides a new way for ordinary people around the world to protect their wealth amid significant devaluation of fiat currencies.Reports indicate that since the two-week conflict with Israel in June of this year, the purchasing power of the Iranian rial has shrunk by over 40%, with the current official exchange rate at approximately 1.4 million rials to 1 dollar. Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer of the Bitcoin Human Rights Foundation, also mentioned that in the early 1980s, the official exchange rate in Iran was only 70 rials to 1 dollar, highlighting the significant depreciation. Meanwhile, the governor of the Iranian central bank has resigned under protest pressure, further exacerbating market uncertainty.Additionally, although Iran allows cryptocurrency trading, the regulations on custody and mining remain relatively strict. VanEck's research director Matthew Sigel pointed out that Iran has recently cracked down on unregistered Bitcoin mining activities and even encouraged citizens to report their neighbors. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of sanctions, pressure on the banking system, and continuous devaluation of the local currency, discussions around Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value are on the rise.

Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin returns may be steady and upward in the next decade, but explosive growth is unlikely

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin is expected to achieve sustained and robust returns over the next decade, but it is unlikely to replicate extreme annual gains. He pointed out that Bitcoin may enter a "long-term slow upward" phase, accompanied by relatively lower volatility, but will still experience periodic pullbacks. Hougan also maintains his view that Bitcoin will strengthen overall by 2026, believing that there is still upward potential for prices next year.Hougan believes that the recent pullback in Bitcoin has significantly converged compared to historical cycles, mainly due to the continuous and slow inflow of institutional funds, which provides support against price declines. ReserveOne Chief Investment Officer Sebastian Beau stated that there is still controversy over whether the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended, as the current price has quickly fallen about 30% from its peak, but has not yet experienced the deep adjustments of over 60% seen in previous cycles. Some market participants remain cautious, with trader Peter Brandt expecting Bitcoin to potentially dip to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026.Regarding macro and policy factors, Hougan believes that the marginal impact of the Trump administration on Bitcoin prices is limited, as the regulatory stance on its "commodity attributes" has become relatively clear, and future policy changes may no longer serve as a major driving force for price increases.
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