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BTC $68,238.50 -1.50%
ETH $2,059.73 -2.00%
BNB $628.40 -0.85%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $470.62 +2.23%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9126 -2.54%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

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Goldman Sachs: Ethereum's fundamentals are strong, with the average daily new address count in January far exceeding that during the "DeFi Summer."

After a decline earlier on Monday, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies like Solana have seen a mild rebound. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs pointed out that despite the weak price performance, on-chain activity paints a different picture, particularly for the Ethereum and Solana networks:The Ethereum network's daily active addresses, new addresses, and transaction counts increased by +27.5%, +26.8%, and +36% respectively month-over-month.The Solana network's daily active addresses and transaction counts increased by +24.3% and +8.2% respectively month-over-month. The number of new addresses on Ethereum reached an all-time high, averaging 427,000 new addresses daily in January—compared to an average of 162,000 new addresses per day during the "DeFi summer" of 2020. Currently, Ethereum has 1.2 million active addresses daily—this is another all-time high based on the 7-day moving average.Goldman Sachs also specifically noted that Ethereum's current market capitalization is now below its realized market capitalization (the total value calculated based on the price at which each token last moved on-chain, representing the total cost basis), which means that most ETH holders are currently in a loss position. Timothy Misir, head of research at digital asset analytics firm BRN, stated, "For cryptocurrencies, the stability of ETF fund flows is a key signal to monitor. Without this support, a rebound is likely to be difficult to sustain."

Giant Whale Garrett Jin: The current Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from 2022, and it's too early to be bearish

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that comparing the current Bitcoin market to that of 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that there are essential differences between the two from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution. He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, and especially the AI technology revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a phase of reduction, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk appetite behavior of capital.Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability outcome. Technically, 2021-2022 was a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is a breakout of the upward channel, which is more likely to be a "bear market trap" before a rebound. He noted that to replicate the bear market of 2022, it is necessary to simultaneously meet stringent conditions such as the re-emergence of inflation shocks, the central bank restarting interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price drop below $80,850. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met.In terms of investor structure, 2020-2022 was a high-leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors, while since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility range of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a distinctly different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.
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