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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase of Bitcoin has seen the highest historical scale of holder realized losses, with the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses reaching $1.37 billion in February 2026, which is 19% higher than the cycle peak of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have decreased by 56.5%, currently down to about $597 million; meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million.Axel Adler pointed out that the sell-off pressure driven by losses has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, with the rate of loss decline still outpacing the rate of profit recovery. Historically, on February 20, 2026, realized losses reached $1.37 billion, setting a historical high for this metric; the highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, occurring on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, the 30DMA of Bitcoin realized profits was $257 million, a decrease of 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion set on December 10, 2024; it was also down 77.7% from when Bitcoin hit its historical high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This metric had previously hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.Axel Adler indicated that the selling pressure from profits has significantly decreased, and the amount of coins sold for profit is still at a low level in this cycle, but this does not mean that sellers have completely exhausted themselves, nor does it indicate that market demand has recovered. If realized profits continue to rise above $400 million to $500 million, it would further confirm a sustained improvement in the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has rebounded from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but it is still below the level of 1. Analysts noted that although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure remains lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's historical peak, there have been 190 days out of the past 291 days where realized losses exceeded realized profits. Axel Adler warned that if the profit/loss ratio falls below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could indicate further intensification of market pressure.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the demand for Bitcoin spot is weakening, while the demand in the futures market remains positive, but is significantly lower than the levels during the market rebound three months ago.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated in an exclusive interview with Axios on Tuesday that American companies "absolutely" should be allowed to use Chinese open-source AI models, directly challenging the Trump administration and some American AI labs' blockade policies.Huang believes that the market's panic over Kimi K3 is a misreading, similar to the sell-off triggered by DeepSeek in early 2025: cheaper open-source models will expand the AI audience and increase, rather than decrease, the demand for chips, data centers, and computing power. "Free AI is good for hardware, good for chips, good for data centers." He also refuted the notion that open-source models pose security risks, claiming that open-source is actually safer because external researchers can examine the models, expose vulnerabilities, and build defenses, while calling for Anthropic to open its Claude Mythos model to "everyone."Huang rejected the narrative that "China will defeat American companies," arguing that the AI race has no finish line and that China and the U.S. will coexist in the long term. Hours after the interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the government is reviewing whether Chinese AI models are stealing intellectual property and considering sanctions. Huang responded that knowledge distillation is the foundation of intelligence and that accountability should be directed at violations rather than the models themselves.

According to BIT analysis, as the demand for call options accelerates, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has both rebounded, indicating that the quiet trading environment of summer may be nearing its end. Recently, there have been several large transactions of call options in the market.Meanwhile, after Bitcoin's implied volatility fell from 44% to 31%, it has now rebounded to 36%, further reflecting that market bullish sentiment is warming up. Although August and September are typically seasonally weak months, the rebound in call option demand and implied volatility is still expected to provide some support for Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of summer, BIT tended to short volatility, anticipating that the market would enter a consolidation phase. However, as option positions and overall market sentiment have both become more positive, BIT adjusted this judgment last week.

According to News.bitcoin, the Kenyan government is investigating the hacking incident of President William Ruto's official website, where attackers briefly disabled the site and altered the homepage content, demanding a ransom of 5 Bitcoins.William Kabogo, the Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Information, Communication and the Digital Economy, stated that the Kenyan law enforcement agency ICT Authority immediately activated the cybersecurity response protocol to control the incident and conduct forensic investigations, temporarily restricting public access to the portal. Currently, there is no evidence that sensitive data has been accessed without authorization, leaked, or lost, and government systems and digital services remain securely operational.

According to official news, Kimi stated that in the past 48 hours, the demand for Kimi K3 has exceeded expectations, and GPU resources are nearing the current capacity limit. To ensure the experience of existing subscription users, the platform has temporarily suspended new subscriptions, and current subscribed users will not be affected. Kimi mentioned that it is working to expand computing power as soon as possible and will gradually open new subscription slots in batches.Meanwhile, the platform will split the membership system into two types of plans in the future: one for Kimi members on the Kimi web portal, App, and Work, and the other for Kimi Code members focused on programming workflows, to more accurately match computing resources and maintain service stability.

According to Bitcoin News, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has requested President Trump to voluntarily disclose his cryptocurrency income and holdings from January 1 to July 15, with a deadline to complete this by July 23.In a letter dated July 16, the senior member of the Senate Banking Committee argued that Congress cannot fairly debate cryptocurrency legislation given that the President's financial exposure to the industry has only been partially disclosed. This request comes as the Senate is reviewing the CLARITY Act, and Warren believes that lawmakers need to be informed of the President's cryptocurrency interests before advancing legislation that could directly impact the value of Trump's holdings. Warren stated that the concern is not only about the President holding digital assets but also about the legislation being considered by Congress potentially benefiting businesses and investments related to the President, which have only been partially disclosed.

According to Etoday, SK Group Chairman and Chairman of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry Choi Tae-won stated today at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry Summer Forum that despite the recent significant decline in SK Hynix's stock price, investors should not frequently buy and sell, but should hold stocks from a long-term perspective.With the continuous development of the artificial intelligence industry, the demand for storage will continue to grow. He said, "AI is still like a 4-year-old child now, but it will eventually grow into an adult. The market will still require a large amount of memory support, and the related demand will inevitably grow exponentially. Although it is impossible to predict next month's stock price trend, do not repeatedly buy and sell; quietly holding is a better way to protect assets."

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin rose from $62,700 to $64,700 in the past 24 hours, an increase of about 3.1%. The Taker order pressure indicator was negative for almost the entire week last week, dropping to a low of -3.9, turning positive on July 14, and currently at +4.1; the liquidation pressure indicator is at -55.2, remaining negative since July 11, with long liquidations dominating the market.The analyst pointed out that the combination of these two indicators suggests that this rebound is driven by real demand rather than a short squeeze. The reversal of Taker capital flow occurring simultaneously with the price increase is a typical characteristic of aggressive buying. If the Taker indicator remains positive in the next 24 hours, the upward trend will be confirmed; if it falls below the zero axis, it indicates a waning buying momentum. The current market has shifted to a cautious risk preference.

According to data from The Block, the trading volume of Hyperliquid's permissionless perpetual contract framework HIP-3 has risen from about 2% at the beginning of the year to approximately 50% currently, in line with the growth in retail demand for on-chain stock trading.This category is dominated by TradeXYZ, which operates XYZ100 (tracking the Nasdaq 100 index) and individual stock contracts for companies like Nvidia and Tesla, all settled in stablecoins rather than the underlying stocks. Compared to traditional options, perpetual contracts avoid time value decay, requiring only the payment of funding rates with no expiration date, making it more intuitive for retail traders accustomed to simple long and short operations.24/7 trading is another core selling point, allowing traders to react instantly to news or earnings reports without waiting for the market to open. However, the underlying stocks are still only traded during market hours, and outside of trading hours, HIP-3 prices rely entirely on oracles and funding rate mechanisms for anchoring, which has not been fully validated compared to native 24/7 assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to Jinshi reports, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until the United States stops its interference in the region.The statement pointed out that a vessel attempted to cross the strait along an unauthorized route, and the Iranian military had to take action against it to prevent its passage.

Sharplink Research Director Steven Ehrlich published an analysis pointing out that Ethereum started strong in July 2026, with an increase of about 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests that investors should pay attention to ETH's performance in July. Steven Ehrlich noted that the core advantage of ETH's July performance is not merely volatility, but the asymmetry between rises and falls: when July sees an increase, the average rise is about 43%, while in years of decline, the average drop is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025).Historically, months of significant gains for ETH are usually driven by "Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalance." The current market environment also presents similar opportunities, such as: institutional infrastructure is being built, the Ethereum roadmap is continuously upgrading, and corporate funds are consistently increasing their holdings of ETH. Currently, Ethereum is entering a new development phase, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become important factors driving ETH's market performance.

According to a report by Reuters, benefiting from the ongoing tight supply of memory triggered by the rapid development of AI and a significant increase in chip prices, Samsung Electronics' operating profit for the second quarter of this year is expected to surge approximately 18 times year-on-year, reaching about 86 trillion won (approximately 56.35 billion USD). This will mark the company's third consecutive quarter of setting a historical high for operating profit. Analysts point out that, in addition to high bandwidth memory (HBM), the popularity of complex applications such as Agentic AI has also greatly driven strong demand for traditional DRAM and NAND products, and it is expected that the supply-demand imbalance in the memory market will last at least until next year.Despite the strong performance expectations, analysts warn that due to Samsung's previous agreement to allocate 10.5% of the operating profit from its semiconductor division as special bonuses for employees to avoid strikes, the timing of this substantial reserve may cause the actual reported profit for the second quarter to be slightly lower than market expectations. Additionally, affected by the rising costs of memory components, Samsung's mobile business is facing severe pressure on profit margins, and the industry expects that it may need to further raise prices for terminal products such as smartphones in the second half of the year to alleviate cost pressures.

According to Jinshi reports, Nomura Securities believes in its latest report that the core contradiction in the global storage industry is still a severe supply shortage, and the AI-driven structural demand growth has not yet peaked.Recently, investors' concerns about oversupply have been clearly exaggerated, and the market's extreme reaction may provide a window for reassessing valuations in the storage sector. Nomura Securities bluntly stated in the report that the market's worries are greatly overstated; the cycle for semiconductor investment to translate into actual capacity is extremely long. South Korea's investment plan of up to 480 trillion won will take at least 5 to 10 years to translate into actual capacity, and the high-profit HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is squeezing general storage capacity, which is leading to a serious supply shortage in the market.Nomura Securities emphasized that Meta's decision is by no means a turning point for the reduction in demand for AI-related hardware. On the contrary, due to the current shortage of computing power leading to an upward trend in the price of a single token, Meta's entry into the computing power market is expected to stabilize token prices downward.

According to Bloomberg, Micron officially broke ground on its factory expansion project in Higashi-Hiroshima City, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan on Saturday. The total investment for the project is approximately 1.5 trillion yen (about 9.3 billion USD), aimed at producing advanced memory chips for the AI era.The new production line will focus on key chips such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which are core components supporting the performance of AI processors like those from Nvidia. The related chips are expected to start shipping as early as the summer of 2028.The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has provided up to 500 billion yen in subsidy support for the project to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and enhance supply chain resilience.This expansion project is seen as an important step for Japan to strengthen its semiconductor manufacturing layout in the global AI chip competition.